Why the bottom for $BTC is not in
Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders
Currently it is 53.6k
Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price
2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5
2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300
2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k
2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k
58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming?
My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 20-30%
In other words → 37.5k-42.8k
Bookmark this because I know I'm right
Good morning, traders!
A new trading day is here, bringing fresh opportunities and new setups. Stay disciplined, stick to your trading plan, and don’t let emotions dictate your decisions.
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Congratulations to everyone who followed the plan, both shorts from 120k and 80,500 are printing big and the entire framework from September 2025 has played out with perfection. So what do I expect next?
The Confirmed BlackRock Bottom (CBB):
The final Bitcoin bottom remains what I call the CONFIRMED BLACKROCK BOTTOM (CBB). The region where BlackRock launched its ETF in early 2024, roughly the 40-48k zone, remains my primary target. Bitcoin has not completed its bear market cycle. Stage 4 is finished. Stage 5 has officially begun. The biggest mistake investors are making right now and did in the recent weeks is believing that 60k was the bottom. It wasn't. It's the trapdoor into Stage 5. Every bear market creates a point where people convince themselves the worst is over, only to discover that the most painful phase has not even started yet.
The White Line Support at 60k:
One important short-term observation: the white line support is currently holding at the 60k region. This is a key technical level that has supported price for the entire move since the BlackRock ETF launch. For now, this support is holding, and as long as it does, there is a high probability we see a move back up to the 65-66k region before continuing lower. This is not me betting on this move, this is just an idea to keep in mind. Bitcoin never moves down in a straight line, and at some point the market needs a counter-move to clear liquidity in the other direction. This could very well happen right here at 60k toward 65-66k. The white line will break and thats what i am betting on, but for now it is holding, and that is what we need to respect short-term. None of this affects my trading. I keep holding my shorts from 120k and 80,500, and I do not adjust the position based on short-term fluctuation.
Stage 5 Has Officially Begun:
We are now officially entering Stage 5 of my 6-stage bear market framework, the phase in which the true capitulation should happen. But do not expect the capitulation to happen by next week, or even in the coming few weeks. These moves take time, and my time frame to see the final bottom remains September-October 2026. Expect violent moves below 60k, followed by sharp rallies back above it. Expect brutal short squeezes, painful long liquidations and heavy manipulation in both directions. This phase is designed to inflict maximum pain on both bulls and bears before the final bottom is established. The same people who refused to sell at 100k, 80k and 70k often end up selling at much lower prices because the emotional pressure eventually becomes unbearable.
The Stage 5 Catalyst:
Every major bear market has had a final catalyst. This is the stage where MSTR-type positions come under serious stress, where leveraged players get liquidated, and where large players or even an exchange can collapse. In the previous cycle it was FTX that caused Bitcoin to bottom out. This cycle will likely have its own event that accelerates the final capitulation and catches most participants completely off guard. These moves appear suddenly and destroy positions overnight. This is Stage 5
Summary:
The shorts from 115-125k remain fully open, the shorts from 79-82k remain fully open, Stage 5 is officially underway, and the most emotional phase of this bear market is only just beginning. You are now able to join DrProfitPremium for 7 DAYS FOR FREE! The invite links will be shared in the next 24-48h in the Channel linked below. Join the channel and dont miss out on the invite links: https://t.co/zkdgaR6H3c
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
Been up all night looking at bitcoin:native chart and there’s so much talk on the TL about the bottom, I can’t say for certain where the bottom is but I know that $60k is not the bottom. Relief pump then more dump
You can call for $50K, $30K, or even $20K on bitcoin:native and you might be right.
Instead of guessing the price, focus on the timing. Let the market find its bottom when the cycle low is due.
My target window remains October November 2026. Until then, we’re all just guessing.
I'm seeing this chart a lot on my timeline lately.
IMO, $BTC won't go to $30,000-$35,000 zone, and the bottom could be around $48,000-$50,000.
Where do you guys think Bitcoin will bottom?
Bought bitcoin:native at the bottom of the 2020 Covid crash.
Bears said $1.5K was coming.
It ran to $69K
Bought bitcoin:native at the 2022 crash bottom near $16K
Bears said $10K, $5K, even $3K
It ran to $74K
bitcoin:native crashed from $126K to $60K
Bears now say $50k , $40k
I’m betting $150K - 200K in next 3 months.
Stocks are dumping.
Gold is dumping.
Silver is dumping.
Crypto is dumping.
Bonds are dumping.
Even Oil is dumping.
If everything is dumping, where the hell is money going?