blackmoses100

Instagram @blackmoses100 ARTIST | WRITER | HOST | seen on TI & Tiny: Friends and Family Hustle. Music & Sports is my peace RIH Virginia|MamaFord|Chez|UncleEd

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🚨Free Play #3 ⚾️

Andrew Abbott O17.5 outs

LIKE/RT if tailing ❤
Check out my analysis for this one! ⤵️

Andrew Abbott gets a nice spot to have success tonight on the road vs SD. The Padres have been struggling offensively for some time now and can't seem to get out of it, they have also been bad vs lefties.

On the season vs LHP, San Diego has bad .216 BA ranking 3rd lowest in MLB. They are also dead last (30th) in OBP and OPS, 27th in SLG, 24th in ISO and their 79 wRC+ is 29th. 10th highest strikeout rate and 4th lowest BB% is also great to see for an opposing lefty.

The advanced batted ball metrics back up why they've been bad vs lefties, 24th in line drive% and 25th in hardhit%. At home their production has been even a bit worse, .213 BA, 6.8% BB rate and 75 wRC+.

Against lefty starters since May 1st, SD has a .206 BA ranking 2nd lowest along with the 3rd lowest hardhit%. Everything on paper looks great here for Abbott to have a great opportunity to limit runs, hits, and walks which should allow for him to go deeper into the game.

Similar style and velocity lefty Springs was able to go 6.1 IP vs SD even while giving up 4 ER and 3 BB's.

This game is in San Diego tonight which is very important for Abbott. He has been much worse at home, this makes sense pitching in one of the best hitters parks in Cinci. Going to SD is a benefit with a deeper outfield, not as hot, and a night game with the marine layer that affects fly ball depth.

We see Abbott on the road has a 2.81 ERA compared to a 5.15 ERA at home. On the road this year Andrew allows a .231 BA compared to .259 BA at home. He has had a slight walk concern at times this year, but with SD ranking bottom 5 in BB% that should be mitigated (he also had a 4.3% BB rate on road last year).

Reds bullpen is a bit taxed after using 5 bullpen arms Sunday, could use length from Abbott who is used to getting stretched out, 100+ pitches last 2 starts.

This was at -106 on Novig when posted in discord.

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🏀 NBA ⏱️

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[blackmoses100 @QVance]

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WTA Queen’s Club

Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones

🧠 Form & Context

🇩🇪 Laura Siegemund — #47, right-handed

📈 2026: 9–10 overall
✅ Experienced tour-level operator with stronger all-round statistical profile
🔁 Leads in key efficiency areas: service games won, return games won, dominance ratio, and breakpoint conversion
🌱 Grass L52 WTA record: 4–3, which is quietly solid for a player not traditionally viewed as a grass specialist
⚠️ Age and physical management remain factors, but her tactical variety usually travels well to lower-bounce surfaces

🇬🇧 Francesca Jones — #102, right-handed

📉 2026: 10–12 overall
✅ Strong clay-heavy background and coming off a notable Roland Garros win over Haddad Maia
🏠 Home-crowd angle at Queen’s Club gives her emotional upside
⚠️ Grass profile remains limited: 2–4 at WTA level in the last 52 weeks and 4–8 career WTA grass record
❌ Serve vulnerability is the main concern: low service-games-won rate, high double-fault rate, and weak second-serve points won

🔍 Match Breakdown
This matchup is less about raw power and more about control, variety, and who manages pressure better. Siegemund has the clearer tactical edge. Her slice, changes of pace, net instincts, and return craft can make life uncomfortable for Jones, especially if the Brit struggles to protect her second serve.

Jones has already shown she can beat Siegemund, winning their Madrid meeting in 2025, but that was on clay — a surface that gives her more rally rhythm and time to build points. Grass is a different test. The lower bounce and quicker first-strike exchanges should reward Siegemund’s experience and ability to disrupt.

The biggest statistical gap is on serve stability. Siegemund holds serve at a much stronger rate and creates more pressure on return, while Jones’ second serve and double-fault numbers leave her exposed. If Jones lands enough first serves and uses the crowd energy well, she can keep sets close. But over the full match, Siegemund looks more reliable in both neutral rallies and pressure moments.

🔮 Prediction
Siegemund deserves favoritism here. She has the better ranking, the stronger recent grass numbers, the more complete pressure profile, and a tactical style that should translate well to Queen’s Club.

Jones has upset potential if she starts fast, keeps the first-serve percentage high, and turns this into an emotional home-crowd battle. But if Siegemund gets regular looks at second serves, she should gradually take control.

🧩 Prediction: Laura Siegemund

[blackmoses100 @QVance]

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[RBsSportsPlays @RBsSportsPlays]

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[blackmoses100 @QVance]

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