Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️

Investing , Running and I try play golf . All views are my own.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️ @RUTT_88]

@awealthofcs Unreal times

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Last 10 Years...
Semiconductors $SOXX: +1,790% (+34% Annualized)
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +613% (+22% Annualized)
S&P 500 $SPY: +321% (+15% Annualized)

Video: https://t.co/MlNh6tnw11

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Bond markets are flashing red.

Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.

This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today

2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday

3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday

4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday

5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday

6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday

7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday

8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday

9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

We expect extreme volatility ahead.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the biggest gains have come with the $VIX above 40.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500 is now down 9.8% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff turmoil last April and the longest (61 days) since the 2022 bear market. $SPX

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it

But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy

A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and 30%:

https://t.co/iIhxLqzSjf

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Peter Lynch: "I went down more than the market everytime! I just don't worry about it"

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

“About once every two years the market falls 10%. Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline. That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.” – Peter Lynch

[Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️ @RUTT_88]

@benjamincowen My two favorites 🙌🏽

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Bitcoin is already down 30% against Gold this year.

Note that every midterm year, BTC has bled against Gold.

Here is the BTC/Gold valuation over various midterm years:

2014: -55%
2018: -73%
2022: -64%
2026: -32% (so far)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Silver prices officially surge above $90/oz for the first time in history, now up another +25% this year.

Silver's market cap is officially above $5 TRILLION for the first time in history.

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

Historical annual returns 1928-2025:

Stocks +10.0%

Gold +5.6%

Bonds +4.5%

Housing +4.2%

Cash +3.4%

https://t.co/it5DtSMXQo

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨 Is silver on track to become the world's 2nd-largest asset this year?

Silver market cap is up to $4.24 trillion, making it the 3rd-largest asset in the world.

It now trails only gold ($30.8T) and Nvidia ($4.6T).

The gap between silver and Nvidia is just ~$370 billion, or roughly 8%.

Silver has already overtaken Alphabet ($3.9T), Apple ($3.9T), Microsoft ($3.6T), Amazon ($2.6T), and Bitcoin ($1.8T) in 2025.

Silver would need to rise above $80 per ounce again to claim the 2nd spot.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold soared more than 64% last year, it's best year since 1979 📈🤯🤑

[Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️ @RUTT_88]

@RonaldLamola I laughed out loud reading this 🤣
Please fix JHB thanks

[Barchart @Barchart]

Silver

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Fed says it will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th and will purchase $40 billion worth of Treasury Bills in 30 days.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

A bubble can’t be a bubble without a valuation extreme, and so far, we don’t have one (at least not for the major averages or the Mag 7).  We can argue about the quality of earnings given the circularity of vendor financing and the use of depreciation timelines, but to my eye at least this is a cycle in which valuations are no longer the driving force.