submarineguy

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 那就是挣一波短期缺货的钱。功率半导体器件技术相对成熟，市场少有绝对寡头垄断，availability premium我觉得是远低于InP。而且这个公司现在还在切产能，EV>>AI, CSP。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 既然是availability premium，我觉得更重要的还是了解xfab的核心产品对应的市场D/S，产能bottleneck，customer ecosystem。或许有其他更了解的同行能披露一些信息。在800V供电相关的我觉得竞争对手很多，而且大部分都有自己的fab(STM, IFX, Wolf)。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Jackhe0812He @ShanghaoJin power semi欧洲龙头Infineon也在EU Chip Act，他们业务已经垂直整合了。之前合作的公司用的器件基本都是IFX, Wolf, STMicro。CPO那个封装技术我不是很懂，但是明显还在验证阶段，我觉得仅仅是这个理由只能纳入观察仓。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment 美国和瑞典从上世纪起就有各种国防、科研相关的互惠协议了。2026 MOU里提到的主要还是Defense projects，对应的是RF, SATCOM sector。对于InP substrate的valuation, 我个人觉得Market S/D >> Political factor。就算有政治背书，Sive的Glasgow fab产能跟不上就不能解决这个bottleneck，提升很有限

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

This is the guy who tried to educate the public on the semiconductor industry and short Sive while himself cannot tell the difference between MLCC and electrolytic caps. He judges the values based on the size of the components. The caps are probably the cheapest components here.

[Jason's Chips @jasonschips]

800VDC

Look at how big those MLCCs are!

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Ren_aramb you can just tap screenshot check this. Cost like nothing.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment @NingiResearch 散户赚的钱可以众筹一下让他给SIVE唱赞歌了。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment @NingiResearch 大家一起来嘲笑他哈哈。和X上的老哥一起做多真是有意思。What a ride!

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@NingiResearch Took the money, gotta do your job, huh?

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 感谢分享！金老师的意思是警惕模型的performance和御三家营收不及预期，这个可能是市场泡沫破裂的信号。因为投资者大都不了解前沿LLM的发展。究竟是Agentic AI带来新一轮的boost还是bust。因为我们也不知道会不会再有GPT2>3的质变。所以最好的策略还是入局，走一步看一步，时刻保持警惕。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@NlTR0_ @Million_Sancet That's more accurate about the GPU/CPU solutions. What I gathered is that if SHT is able to provide a scalable solutions for GPU as well, then the upside potential is much greater. For the capacity/scalability, I think it's just a matter of time for the CN Mfrs. to find a way out

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@PepInvestStocks Thanks for sharing. I am curious about their technological moat and actual qualified partnership except Sive. Now it only seems to benefit from the sive ecosystem hype. Looks like a trade>investment. Need to dig deeper.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Ren_aramb Can you share how you got to these buying power numbers? Saw them everywhere but no clarification.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Million_Sancet Do you know how these buying power are calculated? I saw them everywhere but did not see anyone clarified.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@NlTR0_ @Million_Sancet Thanks for your thesis. That is very insightful. To my understanding, SHT only provides CPU thermal pad solutions for now and will expand to GPU in near future. Is this correct? This will generate huge returns.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@MisterMCAP Really smart trade looking back now. Congrats mate! I wanted to sell and buy. But there's the short covering and MSCI injection on the same day, really tricky to decide. So I just hold.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShortSeller @0xsimmo Over the past two weeks, I've seen many people from around the world rush into SIVE with frenzy. Many took the hit today, probably tomorrow, and after. They just got to learn it the hard way

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShortSeller @0xsimmo I think he saw more potential in the NASDAQ listing and the two new board members specialized in M&A. This is a similar pattern to LITE last year. Don't know how this might turn out. But the substance to support the crazy run is not catching up with the chasers' greed.