Real Vision

The premier marketplace for crowdsourced investor intelligence.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.

Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes. 

All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it gets scored on how it plays out in the market.

And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account. 

Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.

Your future. Your move.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Inflation is already rolling over in the Steno Nowcast, says @RosenvoldGeo.

The tool is measuring inflation as it stands today, and the official numbers typically catch up four to six weeks later.

"So have a bit of patience with this," he says… Even a slight soft surprise could lift the AI trade.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Bitcoin ETF buyers are sitting on losses again, and they're selling.

Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000 for the first time since August, and US spot ETFs have paid $77,108 per coin on average.

BlackRock's fund has seen more than $2.2bn of outflows in ten straight sessions.

The last turn came on 19 August, when the Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and Bitcoin ran from $64,700 to $86,600.

@Jamie1Coutts flags a possible retest of the first-half lows near $58,600.

Until liquidity turns again, the daily ETF flow number is the one to watch.

[Mikkel Rosenvold @RosenvoldGeo]

The US won the Battle of the Strait of Hormuz. They have turned Iran’s strategy onto themselves by blocking Iranian oil exports.

In that sense, the US don’t need a peace deal necessarily.

Still - it’s impossible for the US to prevent Iran from firing land-based drones and missiles at ships in the Strait. And without a peace deal, Iran always has the option of escalating against US-aligned targets in the region.

Finally, having three Carriers tied up in the Gulf is not sustainable.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The move away from Nvidia (in relative terms) was already underway before Jensens exit.

Here from Anthropics S-1 filing. The stuff that all of the below need is MEMORY.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Is @AnthropicAI really worth 1.4T?

$ANT starts trading on Thursday and @AndreasSteno has broken it all down in a special IPO preview.

He's gone through the 300-page prospectus and laid out the bull and bear case with a price for each.

Everything is in his free 28-page report… Comment "ANTHROPIC" and we'll DM it to you.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Jensen Huang has resigned as Nvidia CEO, and other chip stocks have rallied hard this week.

Nvidia has dropped 11% this week, while AMD has gained 30%, Broadcom 24% and TSMC 8%.

That shift was already showing up in @AnthropicAI's IPO filing.

Of the $657bn in compute deals it has named, Google's chips are taking 42% and Nvidia's 38%.

AI spending is still growing, but it's spreading across more chips.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

it hurts, but a little less…

[Real Vision @RealVision]

That's today's US read.

View the full dashboard inside Real Vision, including Steno IQ's inflation, growth, and liquidity models across five economies.

Free account: https://t.co/A8VjR8XG4U

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Steno IQ, the macro model on the Real Vision dashboard, sees just a 6% chance the next US inflation print comes in hotter than the last. A month ago it was a coin flip.

A December hike still looks locked in, and the 10-year has jumped to 5.1% this week. But the model's read is that inflation is close to peaking.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Today's PPI is set to show the highest yearly rate since 2022, even if prices are cooling.

Last October's soft reading drops out of the 12-month window, so an expected 0.4% rise lifts the yearly rate from 6.3% to about 6.6%.

The 10-year has already jumped 27bp in four days to 5.10%. And this report captures mid-October, before freight eased and oil fell back below $90.

Watch core against 0.3%. A hot print could push the odds of a half-point Fed hike even higher.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

The Trading League is open now. $5,000 for the best idea of the week. It closes on 20 November. Free to join:
https://t.co/r172rsKM7r

[Real Vision @RealVision]

A short on semiconductors returned 50.89% in week 3 of our Trading League. One Real Vision member used SOXS, the 3x inverse semiconductor ETF, after calling time on the chip trade and the wider US market.

The catch: leverage resets daily, so returns can drift from 3x the index, and volatility drag can bite if markets chop sideways first. Palvatar covers where it fits and where it doesn't.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

The dollar has climbed to a new 19-month high, which could spell trouble for Japan.

Markets now see a December Fed hike as almost certain, and higher US rates keep pulling money into the dollar.

The other side of that trade is the yen. With Japan's rates still near zero, it's sliding towards 160 per dollar, and Tokyo's top currency official says the moves are "too rapid".

160 is where Japan stepped in back in 2024, selling dollars to buy yen and knocking dollar/yen down around 3% in a single day.

So 160 is the line to watch: an intervention there can knock the dollar back against the yen in a single session.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Stablecoin supply just posted its biggest drop since 2022, down $14.2 billion in 30 days.

That's money being cashed out of crypto, and you can see it in bitcoin's price, which has slipped below its 200-day average near $73.1k.

@Jamie1Coutts says the low $70ks need to hold for the market to stay bullish.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

A Ukraine peace deal would ease the diesel crisis, says @RosenvoldGeo

But strikes on Russian refineries are only behind about a third of the diesel crunch.

A deal puts that third back. The other two thirds of what you pay at the pump stay put.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

"Invest in businesses. Don't go invest in dreams."

@jam_croissant’s first rule for managing risk is to know what you own.

His second is to put brakes on your race car. A hedge that pays off in a sell-off gives you cash to hit the gas when prices are low.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Jensen Huang has resigned as Nvidia's CEO, five days before the biggest quarter in its history… CFO Colette Kress is stepping in as interim CEO.

$NVDA is falling nearly 10% today and pulling the Nasdaq down with it.

The business has not changed, and it is still guiding to a $108 billion quarter. That is leaving the AI leader at under 15 times forward earnings.

Is this the buying opportunity of the year or the start of something worse?

[Real Vision @RealVision]

The most important thing in finance is not earnings. It’s the discount rate.” - @jam_croissant

Bond yields are the discount rate for stocks.

When bond yields climb, investors demand a higher return from stocks too, so the 60/40 hedge falls apart.

In 1982, with rates at 20%, the S&P traded at five times earnings.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

@AndreasSteno Sign up free on Real Vision to read it the moment it drops: https://t.co/zPkzCUFiQL

[Real Vision @RealVision]

Anthropic is heading into its $1.4T IPO, and @AndreasSteno is calling the deal vastly undervalued.

He is pointing to numbers no software company has posted before:

- It has added $10bn of run-rate in October alone
- It has made the fastest climb from $1bn to $75bn in corporate history
- It has done all of that while the average price of its tokens roughly halved from September into October, and its OpenRouter volumes more than doubled

All of that is pricing at about 12x run-rate. He is also flagging $895bn of compute commitments as a real risk.

His full report on the Anthropic IPO is dropping tomorrow on Real Vision ↓