Richard Medhurst

Independent journalist. British 🇬🇧 Based at UN 🇺🇳 Lived around the world 🌍. International affairs, US politics and Middle East. ✉️ [email protected]

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

My statement outside the Old Bailey on the #Assange extradition hearing.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

The CIA, with Bin Laden and Zawahiri, set up the Maktab al Khadamat (Services Bureau) in Peshawar to fly in recruits from all over the world and train them against the Soviets. This then splintered into Al Qaeda. Peshawar is a tribal area on the border with Afghanistan, right at the strategic Khyber Pass. If you ever visit you'll see a sign saying that basically says the govt bears no responsibility once you enter, and you're on your own as it's semi-autonomous (at least it did when I was there). The US have been running the show there for decades more than anyone else.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Remember it was both Russia and the United States that dismantled Syria's chemical weapons program in 2013.

Why would Russia and the US cooperate on this issue? Weren't Russia a Syrian ally too? How do we explain this from the POV of grand strategy or power competition?

In a nutshell, the Big Boy's Club (i.e. countries with WMDs) like keeping that club small and exclusive. "Friends" doesn't quite have the same meaning you think it does at that level.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Notice how no stockpiles of chemical weapons were found in Syria since Assad's fall?

And that's precisely the point: Arabic countries and their neighbors keep handing over their strategic deterrents on a silver platter, and never learn the lesson that follows.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Many don't know this but the lingua franca of the Persian Empire was actually Aramaic. This is the same Semitic language that Jesus later spoke.

A capable interpreter or diplomat during the wars in the Classical Period would've dealt in both Aramaic & Ancient Greek.

Fascinating

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Btw do not mistake the Golan for just some barren military zone. It does have settlements there — but you could view that as part of the strategy.

As Machiavelli wrote, if you want to keep a piece of land, send colonies because they will hold on to it fiercely for you. So the fact there are settlements there isn't without military/geopolitical implications — even though it's less inhabited than the West Bank for example.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Israel have held the Syrian Golan Heights since 1967.

They saw an opportunity during Assad's fall to destroy Syria's military arsenal (500+ air raids) and took additional territory, twice the size of Gaza, expanding their buffer.

The most critical piece of land they took in 2024 was Mount Hermon (Jabal al Sheikh) — the highest mountain peak in Syria. That vantage point provides them with an enormous advantage in SIGINT (Signals Intelligence).

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Many don't know this but the lingua franca of the Persian Empire was actually Aramaic. This is the same Semitic language that Jesus later spoke.

A capable interpreter or diplomat during the wars in the Classical Period would've dealt in both Aramaic & Ancient Greek.

Fascinating

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Back then, the Roman army was actually made up considerably of non-citizens from conquered provinces themselves.

So you would find (in modern terms) Frenchmen, Germans, Britons etc. all in service of Rome.

That's why Tacitus speaks of the rebels being "reintegrated".

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Back then, the Roman army was actually made up considerably of non-citizens from conquered provinces themselves.

So you would find (in modern terms) Frenchmen, Germans, Britons etc. all in service of Rome.

That's why Tacitus speaks of the rebels being "reintegrated".

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

The interesting part is the Romans didn't execute the Gaul rebels but reintegrated them into the army immediately.

Probably less to do with mercy, and more to do with the fact the Empire couldn't afford otherwise. It was in turmoil and had had 4 Emperors that year alone.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

This takes place almost 2000 years ago. Tacitus recounts how the Romans retook Gaul (France) after a rebellion. A Roman general, Cerialis is addressing the rebels and says:

—The Empire gives you stability and security.
—It needs your land as a buffer against the Germans.

Empire and its reasoning never change.

What does that tell you about humans?

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Looking at this through the lens of realpolitik, the Israelis saw a moment of political instability in Syria, and exploited it to expand this buffer zone in the Golan.

They didn't like Assad and they don't like or trust Jolani either. So from their POV, the buffer is to put as much physical distance under their control between themselves and Damascus. It is also why they want to take Sueida. That has little to do with shielding the Druze from anything, and more to do with expanding the zone under their control.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Remember it was both Russia and the United States that dismantled Syria's chemical weapons program in 2013.

Why would Russia and the US cooperate on this issue? Weren't Russia a Syrian ally too? How do we explain this from the POV of grand strategy or power competition?

In a nutshell, the Big Boy's Club (i.e. countries with WMDs) like keeping that club small and exclusive. "Friends" doesn't quite have the same meaning you think it does at that level.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Notice how no stockpiles of chemical weapons were found in Syria since Assad's fall?

And that's precisely the point: Arabic countries and their neighbors keep handing over their strategic deterrents on a silver platter, and never learn the lesson that follows.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Yes, they are quite different in many aspects — but the point is that almost every empire in history makes the same argument: "we have come to civilize you/to enlighten you/to bring good".

How do we explain the pattern? It's an indictment of human beings more than anything.

[C A C M @CACM1976630]

@richimedhurst I wouldn't compare the Anglosaxon empire, which is a sea one, and mostly one of pirates, to the Roman one, which was continental and which civilized and integrated the lands it expanded to.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Btw do not mistake the Golan for just some barren military zone. It does have settlements there — but you could view that as part of the strategy.

As Machiavelli wrote, if you want to keep a piece of land, send colonies because they will hold on to it fiercely for you. So the fact there are settlements there isn't without military/geopolitical implications — even though it's less inhabited than the West Bank for example.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Israel have held the Syrian Golan Heights since 1967.

They saw an opportunity during Assad's fall to destroy Syria's military arsenal (500+ air raids) and took additional territory, twice the size of Gaza, expanding their buffer.

The most critical piece of land they took in 2024 was Mount Hermon (Jabal al Sheikh) — the highest mountain peak in Syria. That vantage point provides them with an enormous advantage in SIGINT (Signals Intelligence).

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Looking at this through the lens of realpolitik, the Israelis saw a moment of political instability in Syria, and exploited it to expand this buffer zone in the Golan.

They didn't like Assad and they don't like or trust Jolani either. So from their POV, the buffer is to put as much physical distance under their control between themselves and Damascus. It is also why they want to take Sueida. That has little to do with shielding the Druze from anything, and more to do with expanding the zone under their control.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Documentary: https://t.co/Gb7Et2yZwv

Written version: https://t.co/rsQWj0XbMq

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

I've been telling you since March/April that a US blockade was coming, that it would hold, and that the US would dominate the oil and gas market.

I was proven correct on all points.

An analyst who only tells you what you want to hear over and over is feeding you garbage.