Growth investor, undervalued AI stocks Europe without USA hype, early Bitcoin investor and OG (2017), energy investor,
smallcap finder before x talks about it
@jim29223471 Can’t give advice on what you should do.
But personally I think $XFAB valuations are a joke at $1.45B MC if they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics supply chain efforts.
@Jornka329996@aleabitoreddit Do whatever you want but don't bother us with your stupid comments. You cry anyway when the price falls after you buy. When it rises you are ultra hyped until it falls again
@Jornka329996@aleabitoreddit and just keep your mouth shut, you haven't sold anyway and you're just trying to annoy people here. You don't have control over your emotions. Please grow up first or create an ETF savings plan
Do you know what the “problem” is with $XFAB PA? Many who want to can't buy it yet and won't be able to buy it until it's listed in other countries. The Europeans can buy it but don't understand it yet and only buy after a x2 - x3 🤣
1/8 🚨 The market is completely blind to a $1.4B micro-cap Silicon Photonics/CPO sleeper.
Everyone is hunting for the next $TSEM. Meanwhile, the market is missing how $XFAB has strategically leapfrogged current-gen tech to anchor itself for the H2 2027 Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) inflection point.
Here is the asymmetric thesis involving Nvidia, EU sovereignty, and "black magic" tech. 👇
2/8 💡 Next-Gen IP: The MTP "Black Magic"
Why is $XFAB skipping the current volume generation? Because of photonixFAB—their consortium driving Micro-Transfer Printing (MTP) architecture.
MTP allows them to integrate InP lasers (via SmartPhotonics) and TFLN (Thin-Film Lithium Niobate) onto silicon. Yields are still early-stage, but the structural IP integration is a generational leap.
3/8 🔗 The $NVDA + $NOK Connection
Per $ASX (ASE Group) roadmap docs, $NVDA is actively evaluating XFAB’s platform for next-gen transceivers and switches, with Nokia ($NOK) setting the assembly specs.
Nvidia’s prior investment in Nokia wasn't random—it’s for telecom/switches. If XFAB’s MTP supply chain scales (SmartPhotonics lasers + EU assembly), Nvidia will likely lock them into Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) just like they did with $TSEM.
4/8 🇪🇺 The Regulatory Alpha: "Sovereign Supply Chains"
Traditional analysts will dismiss this: "Evaluations do not equal guaranteed volume contracts!"
They don't understand European geopolitics. This isn't just a corporate trial; the EU is heavily backing this for sovereign photonic independence. Nvidia needs to play nice with EU antitrust regulators. Giving volume to XFAB is the ultimate geopolitical hedge for Jensen.
5/8 🏷️ Missed by Screeners: A Terrible Naming Choice?
Why haven't institutional screeners connected the dots? Because they named the ecosystem "photonixFAB" instead of something obvious like "XFAB Photonics."
Alpha hides in dumb branding. Because it looks like a generic European R&D project on paper, the market is treating a future CPO foundry bottleneck like a legacy auto fab.
6/8 🛡️ Downside Risk? You're Buying the Floor.
Valuation: At a ~$1.4B market cap, it’s trading below its replacement book value. Downside is mathematically limited.
The Subsidy Cushion: High probability of further backing from European Chips Act 2.
The Power Semi Margin of Safety: Even if CPO delays, you get a massive hedge via their SiC (+152% YoY revenue, +195% YoY wafer shipments) and GaN business.
7/8 🚗 The Macro Cyclical Tailewind
TSMC's chairman recently noted that Automotive AI and Robotics are their next structural growth vectors alongside AI servers. As the automotive chip slump bottoms out medium-term, XFAB’s legacy core business will recover, creating a classic Davis Double (earnings recovery + structural multiplier re-rating).
8/8 🏁 The Bottom Line:
Retail and legacy analysts are waiting for the headline: "Nvidia signs $2B contract with XFAB for 2027 volume ramp."
But by the time that PR drops, this is a $9B+ company and the alpha is gone. Getting a sovereign-backed, Nvidia/Nokia-vetted CPO option at a $1.4B valuation with a booming SiC safety net is a textbook asymmetric bet.