I've tracked on chain activity and holders for $RLB for about a year. In that time the price is basically flat. We are currently at 9 cents - same as this time last year.
Its nearly impossible for RLB to be at 9 cents at this time next year. Have a look at this chart.
What do you see? A year go there were 133 holders who had 500k to 1 million in their wallets - today that number is 72, a 45 percent decrease, a 35 percent decrease in holders in the 1-2 million RLB range, and a whopping 50 percent decrease in both the 2-5 million and 5-10 million holders.. In the whale category, of 10 million + 72 percent of holders from 1 year ago are gone.
So if sellers significantly outnumber buyers, then how is the price the same? Well @rollbit buys and burns each and every hour. Basically, all of these holders that sold have been eaten up by the buy and burn.
Now look at those numbers again. We lost 10 whales with 10+ million in a year.. Theres only 4 left.. Its impossible for that number to go negative! The same with the rest of the brackets. For price to go down assuming buy and burn stays constant, then we have to go into negative holders.. That obviously cannot occur..
In the end of July, $RLB bottomed out at around 3.5 cents... Its nearly 3x'd since that point.. You'd think that would mean that buyers would have finally overtaken sellers.. This isnt the case. There are more sellers than buyers currently.. Its just that Rollbit is buying and burning more than these sellers..
What other token doesnt need more buyers than sellers to go up?
$RLB - $2.30
3 Days. That’s all the time you have.
Because when the snapshot hits, your wallet gets locked in - and your vault share is sealed in time.
No take-backs. No extras. No handouts.
🗓️ Snapshot: Jan 8 – 6PM UTC
Be ready. Or be the one watching others burn and eat.
🗝️ The FINAL Vault Key is now minting.
This is your last chance to complete the set and unlock access to the Cycle 1 Bonus Vault.
✅ Mint here: https://t.co/Ya5QHcbn90
🔐 12 Keys in one wallet = Bonus Vault eligibility
No shortcuts. No reruns.
Just grinders getting paid.
🎨 BASED MONSTA ART COMP - WINNERS CROWNED 🖼
Y’all brought the heat. The vault was drippin' with creativity, but three Monstas rose above the rest:
🥇 1st Place: @littlebirth
🔥 Vault Key + $ rewards + eternal Based glory
🥈 2nd Place: @tommycrypto12
🔥 You snapped. You almost stole the crown.
🥉 3rd Place: @juan__m4
🔥 Dark horse. Wild lines. You BASED.
Thank you to every degen who submitted. You made this art comp more than a flex - you made it culture. 💙
WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE!
We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!
Today the answer seem simple!
Let me break it down.
1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.
2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.
3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".
4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.
5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.
6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.
7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.
8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.
9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.
10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.
11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!
I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet!
If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and follow this account!