Global Rates Outlook #6:
- G4 Central bank preview
- Are Neutral rates just much higher than we think?
- Debate on AI’s impact to prices& Labour mkt / Trimmed mean vs Core CPI.
https://t.co/PhOR5usOsx
I am not a treasury guy. So, I won't hazard a guess on 5/10 spread.
Having said that, its SOFR proxy would be something like M8M9 calendar spread. If data continues to be hot with no resolution in US-Iran situation, I can see this calendar spread continue to go lower. How low it can go is anyone's guess. As always, context is everything.
@thealepalombo Careful, Alessandro. Some people will look at this and call you Europoor. If you don't pay as much money for services as they do in US, you are Europoor. So I have heard. 😉
@Dcpcooks@donnelly_brent@nickgiva1 Correct me if I am wrong, please but my understanding is that 2 yr yield is a better proxy for fed fund 1-1.25 yr down the line (with a spread).
May be, I am just being pedantic.
I am sorry but I take issue with his statement that 2 yr yield predict fed fund 2 year out. May be, I am reading it wrong?? No one has ever accused me of being good at reading comprehension. 😅
But I do agree with what he is trying to convey. @nickgiva1 talks about 2 yr vs fed funds all the time.