Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Director @ENC_Europe | Author of Security Threats along EU’s 🇪🇺 Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Türkiye #MENA #Balkans | Indep. |

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

‘#Turkey/#Türkiye 🇹🇷 in the New European Security Architecture’ is part of @EurLiberalForum’s annual security handbook.

🔟-point 🇪🇺🇹🇷 summary🧵below👇⤵️

*This publication is part of @ALDEParty’s think-tank which provides advise to 🇪🇺 liberal parties & politicians: @EmmanuelMacron @ilhankyuchyuk @alexanderdecroo @vestager @VeraJourova @KadriSimson @JanezLenarcic @dreynders @hildevautmans @anestorasEN @LYMEC @DKaddik . . .👇⤵️

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Caspian and complexity of multi-corridor bargaining.

EU 🇪🇺 & Türkiye 🇹🇷 favour cross-Caspian #MiddleCorridor while US 🇺🇸 re-opens TRIPP, but Iran 🇮🇷 war keeps options open from Gulf into Europe alongside potential Central Asia-Russia route & possible Middle East passages👇

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Caspian and complexity of multi-corridor bargaining.

EU 🇪🇺 & Türkiye 🇹🇷 favour cross-Caspian #MiddleCorridor while US 🇺🇸 re-opens TRIPP, but Iran 🇮🇷 war keeps options open from Gulf into Europe alongside potential Central Asia-Russia route & possible Middle East passages👇

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

In return for the Azerbaijani 🇦🇿 pardon of French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 national, the French 🇫🇷 pushed EU 🇪🇺 to remove Russian-Uzbek 🇷🇺🇺🇿 oligarchs from sanctions list.

Why?

Because France 🇫🇷 is interested in Caspian (where US 🇺🇸 leads with TRIPP) and Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 has shown it has leverage.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Grabbing the “Europe is only solution narrative” is perfectly logical and not an ideological choice. Why? Because France & Germany (+all medium powers like Türkiye, Ukraine, Italy, Poland etc) will become “irrelevant & castrated vassals of history” unless they unite & power-up.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Why democracy is de-prioritised but still stands a chance. Particularly relevant for one of Europe’s economic/industrial hubs: Türkiye 🇹🇷 👇

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Marco Rubio on Russia:

We’ve invited President Putin to the G20. We think it’s an opportunity for him to engage not just with Trump, but with other world leaders.

We hope that’s an invitation he will accept.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Again: US 🇺🇸 rapprochement towards Russia 🇷🇺 continues. Strong warning to all countries nearby Russia, like Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania etc.

A warning that Europe must find its own engagement to enter negotiations and find leverage to protect its interests.

[Kaja Kallas @kajakallas]

51 countries are united today in our support for Ukraine at the UN General Assembly.

Since March 2025, Ukraine has agreed to a full, immediate and unconditional ceasefire. We call on Russia to finally do the same.

Ukraine wants peace. We want peace. Russia must stop its aggression, accept a ceasefire, and engage meaningfully in negotiations towards a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in accordance with international law.

[Zoe Schneeweiss @ZSchneeweiss]

Europe’s dangerous dependence puts it on Xi and Trump’s menu: @LionelRALaurent https://t.co/AjDHkAD8h3 via @opinion

[Alberto Alemanno 🇪🇺 @alemannoEU]

As expected, a bipartisan pushback against AI is expanding beyond America

https://t.co/kBhDSDzhzL

[Reuters @Reuters]

In UN farewell, Macron denounces Trump's Gaza diplomacy as spectacle of shame https://t.co/8m7DoW7cCG https://t.co/8m7DoW7cCG

[KIYAS @kiyashaber873]

🔴 Azerbaycan okullarda türbanı yasakladı.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

Again: US 🇺🇸 rapprochement towards Russia 🇷🇺 continues. Strong warning to all countries nearby Russia, like Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania etc.

A warning that Europe must find its own engagement to enter negotiations and find leverage to protect its interests.

[Gulru Gezer @g_gulru]

🛑 Önemli:

ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Rus mevkidaşı Lavrov’la New York’ta yaptığı görüşmede, ABD’nin Putin’i Miami’de düzenlenecek G20 Zirvesi’ne davet edeceğini söyledi. ⬇️

[Anadolu English @anadoluagency]

🇺🇦 🇹🇷 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan 'good meeting,' saying 'between us, we have very strong relations' after talks at Permanent Mission of Türkiye to United Nations in New York

🤝 Zelenskyy announces Türkiye and Ukraine will increase bilateral trade from $1 billion to $10 billion

🗣️ Zelenskyy says Erdogan is ready to host a trilateral leaders' meeting on peace negotiations, adding 'if President could organize, we will support the idea to be in Türkiye'

Follow our UNGA live blog for more: https://t.co/fyrNRsgDNz

[Arnaud Castaignet @arnocast]

Germany has Europe’s biggest defence budget. Startups don’t get much of it

https://t.co/gCq5RpqNqW

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

@joni_askola That assuming that France only got hostages. Rumours circulating indicate there is more on the table, as US is moving into Caspian and befriending Russia while some diplomats recall that Europe runs the risk of being excluded from all negotiations, if it doesn’t engage.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

At #UNGA81 🇺🇳 #NewYork #UN we see lots of speeches, handshakes & promises.

But reality for Europe is simply: when standing alone countries count little with small populations (-100 million).

United: Europe’s budgets are huge; populations large & capacity competitive globally.

[Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @SamuelJsdv]

At #UNGA81 🇺🇳 #NewYork #UN we see lots of speeches, handshakes & promises.

But reality for Europe is simply: when standing alone countries count little with small populations (-100 million).

United: Europe’s budgets are huge; populations large & capacity competitive globally.

[Kaja Kallas @kajakallas]

I met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

We addressed diplomatic prospects for ending the US-Iran war and fully re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. There were no tolls or fees for passage before the war, and there should be none after the war.

Navigation must be free and unimpeded, both in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

I also raised domestic repression inside Iran, including the sharp rise in executions and death sentences.

[Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen]

Dear @NikolPashinyan, it is good to see you as always.

We are bringing Armenia closer to the EU, while working on a peaceful and prosperous South Caucasus.

We are building roads and bridges with our €200 million connectivity package.

And bridges between people, with our peace-fostering investments.

Our Autonomous Trade Measures will open new opportunities.

With 80% of Armenia’s exports to the EU market now tariff free.

We expect the final adoption of these measures by EU legislators tomorrow - in record time!

And finally we are strengthening energy security.

So: the 🇪🇺🇦🇲 partnership is moving fast, forward and stronger than ever.