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Robinhood expands its prediction market lineup as the NFL season kicks off tonight
"They signed a multi-year deal here with Crypto[.]com and its prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, OG[.]com."
"Crypto[.]com had recently gotten a massive investment from Citadel. I don't remember the evaluation, 20, 30 billion, something like that. I think it was around 20 billion. And Robinhood, as a part of this, is actually getting a stake here in both Crypto[.]com and OG, which are minority stakes, of course."
"Robinhood will be routing some event contracts through OG while continuing to use Kalshi and all of their other providers. They are very, very promiscuous when it comes to who they'll do prediction markets with. Robinhood is doing prediction markets with people all over the place. No standards."
"This initial expansion includes football contracts with election-focused product hub Plamp. This is mostly football."
"Customers traded 13.5 billion event contracts during the second quarter, including approximately 5 billion connected to the World Cup. So obviously, the World Cup was a huge catalyst."
"Now we have the NFL football season starting tonight. So obviously looking to capitalize on actual football that the Americans play with the oblong ball that doesn't use your feet."
This is a massive move once again by Robinhood into the prediction markets world, becoming the everything app for everything and everywhere and everyone.
Iran opens a sanctions workaround, exporters can now repatriate in Bitcoin and Tether
"Iran eases currency controls to let traders bring earnings home in crypto. Exporters can use overseas earnings to fund imports directly, bypassing the official foreign exchange system."
"One of the main uses of crypto, whether we like it or not, is to give people ways to move money outside of the normal financial system and to evade sanctions."
"Exporters will be allowed to use open market mechanisms, primarily Bitcoin and Tether, because those can move value through trading corridors where sanctions restrict access to correspondent banks."
"Approximately $10 billion in cryptocurrency moved through Iran during 2025. In no way is crypto replacing their broader financial system, but it can fill in specific gaps created by sanctions."
"The financial system spent years saying crypto had no real world use case. Sanctions apparently forgot to read that memo, because evading them is a really good use case for crypto right now."
$LAPTOP rips past solana:6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN at $110B, before crashing to $400M
"I'm not even gonna take a look at the chart right now because I looked 90 minutes ago and I spontaneously vomited on the desk and I decided that I didn't want to spontaneously vomit once again live."
"I told you yesterday that $LAPTOP from Hunter Biden was launching. We have yet another political grift in the meme coin space, promising amazing utility if you buy their token because it'll support the Democratic Party and the Bidens and Bitcoin price going up.
"It went from zero to a 110 billion dollar in about five minutes. Trump token made it to about 75 billion for reference, but it went straight up and then had slowly just, just continued all the way down to last time I checked, it was about $400 million."
"If the token was up at, let's call it what, $400? You're the top, you know, now trading under a buck."
"This is entirely avoidable. This is entirely criminal. This is entirely stupid and if you're still participating in these, you probably unfortunately deserve exactly what you're getting."
Matt Hougan says crypto's startup level operation isn't entirely ready to scale into the trillions
"The thing that Tron brings up to me is, look, a lot of this industry was built in startup land, with relatively small teams, working relatively quickly. And maybe isn't scaled for a three-trillion going to ten-trillion-dollar industry."
"We think back on things like the Mt. Gox hacks. That was clearly an example of people getting over their skis, moving into a space that they weren't ready to see scale into the billions. We're scaling into the trillions, and it looks like we're not entirely ready for that."
"If that story is true, and there's like two people between hackers and that much money, it's a frightening aspect. So I think this is a real persistent story, a real persistent risk. We haven't seen it deter people from this space, but we also haven't seen maybe the worst of the potentials here. So I think it's a real thing."
Liquid Network just lost almost its entire $BTC reserve in a single Sunday incident.
On September 6, ~4,000 BTC left the Liquid Federation wallet, worth ~$320 million.
The reserve went from ~4,200 BTC to just over 200 BTC, meaning ~95% of the reserve suddenly left.
Then things got weird.
This does not currently look like someone simply stole the federation keys.
Liquid says the withdrawal went through the SideSwap Peg-out
Authorization Key, or PAK, and that the key itself was not compromised.
The other authorization keys were also reportedly unaffected.
The exact vulnerability has not been publicly explained.
What we do know is that ~3,996 BTC was processed through a peg-out, with the corresponding $LBTC burned.
That distinction matters because the LBTC supply was reduced alongside the withdrawal.
Meanwhile, $USDT, DePix and the real-world assets issued on Liquid were reportedly unaffected.
Then the person who moved the Bitcoin left a message on-chain:
“we are whitehats. contact us on chain.”
White hats? Maybe.
But that is still only a claim.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet has questioned whether the behavior fits a traditional white-hat disclosure, noting that legitimate security researchers would normally disclose the vulnerability before moving hundreds of millions of dollars.
Liquid's model is simple:
BTC is locked on Bitcoin while LBTC is issued on Liquid.
During a normal peg-out, LBTC is burned and the corresponding BTC is released from the federation's reserves.
That is what makes this incident so unusual.
The peg-out happened, the LBTC was burned, and the BTC left the federation reserve, yet Liquid says the PAK itself was not compromised.
So the mechanism that allowed this transaction to happen remains unexplained.
Until the full mechanics are disclosed, calling this a “white-hat rescue” is premature.
The funds have not been confirmed returned, and the people controlling them have not been independently identified as white hats.
This matters beyond Liquid.
For years, Liquid offered a different model for moving Bitcoin:
BTC with a federation, an 11-of-15 multisig and a controlled bridge designed to provide additional security around a Bitcoin sidechain.
On September 6, those security assumptions faced a brutal stress test.
Bitcoin itself wasn't hacked.
The Bitcoin network kept running.
The incident happened around the mechanism connecting BTC on Bitcoin with LBTC on Liquid.
And that distinction is everything.
The $320 million is the headline.
The real story is how ~95% of the federation's reserve was able to leave through a valid-looking peg-out while Liquid says the authorization keys themselves were not compromised.
Until that is fully explained, this isn't just another crypto hack.
It's a massive test of the security assumptions behind one of Bitcoin's largest federated sidechains.
Matt Hougan says Bessent will have to intervene on rates, which leaves him more bullish than bearish on Bitcoin
"But I think the market is recognizing, in this case particularly with the yield side, that he's going to have to do something large. He's going to have to do a large intervention to try to tamp that down, or the market's just going to continue to ramp it and push it up."
"We continue to see all the pressures drive that up. We see massive issuance from the AI complex, they're now flooding Europe, raising money in Europe, because they stuffed the US market full of debt. We see oil pressing up. All these things should push those rates at the long end solidly higher, but Bessent is saying he's the house now."
"It does make me bullish for Bitcoin in the relative short term. It's amazing that we went from 60 to 80 and stuck. I don't know that I've seen that kind of move in Bitcoin ever. But we did it. And now I'm marginally more bullish than bearish because of these quotes coming out of DC."
Matt Hougan says you may need to cut Bitcoin ETF inflows in half to find the real demand
"So I think that's a piece of it, the other piece that's not that interesting to investors is hedge funds coming back into the market because the basis has expanded."
"Basis was sub-Treasury level for a long time, that's the premium people pay on futures. Now it's not. Now it's 6, 7, 8%. You can make real money in the basis trade."
"We see inflows from the hedge fund community. But there is this long-only bid coming into the market as well, from financial advisors, from retail, I think that part of the market is real."
"I would just say, when you look at the flows, you might want to cut it in something like half to get to the long-term demand."
"The other half is sort of this technical demand, from in-kind and hedge fund money."