$CVX CEO: Venezuela represents one of Chevron's largest long-duration optionality opportunities.
“What many people are surprised to learn is that Venezuela has more oil than any country on the planet, including Saudi Arabia.”
From Liquidity Euphoria to Hangover phase
1/ Since early 2023, I’ve been aggressively long U.S. equities, Bitcoin & the liquidity-fueled soft landing narrative.
But now, the regime has changed. Bookmark this for when the headlines catch up, a thread 🧵👇:
The Story of the Mexican Fisherman
An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna.
A kind reminder to all the clowns, recession usually starts after Fed starts it’s cutting cycle. This was the case in 90/91, 00/01 and 07/08.
As to why it’s often case, let me give you a hint: lags and high real rates.
#fastandfurious
@Quarry_Rock Coworkers playing options like Vegas. No fear, only greed
I saw this same psychology in 2021, but they were buying stock and crypto not options.
@Quarry_Rock With Fed track record prolly will be way late to switch to easing. Usually when they do start cutting the market tanks. Wild times for sure
@Quarry_Rock With the nominal risk free rate increasing with inflation falling it makes short term bonds that much better. When inflation rate drops below short term tbill rates, it gets interesting. Wonder if the fed will be too late to go the other way…
@Quarry_Rock I bought at 4.91 for the 6 mo. I really thought they would go higher and hold high, was amazed to see how fast yields dropped Monday. Wild times. 🍿👀
@SenesLULZ “Don’t fight the Fed”
If you don’t know the Fed path,you have no compass. Understanding the goal of the Fed is important to figuring the cycle and economic path we are on. Appreciate the help of the guidance and the enlightenment