Sully

Founder
basically Larry David but with semi-decent hair
7 figures ARR in the audiobook space
Focus on entertainment and media entities

[Sully @Sullyish]

Not to say 'proven' IP not still performing of course. Toy Story 5 is about to drop and might clip $1 billion. It's the barbell at play. Just some bigger franchises are being worse managed than others.

[Sully @Sullyish]

The shifting sands of entertainment.

Legacy IP is slowly losing ground to internet-first concepts that are getting Gen Z and Gen Alpha out into the cinema again.

[Exhibitor Relations Co. @ERCboxoffice]

TOO EARLY TOP 5

1. BACKROOMS ($88M)
2. OBSESSION ($27M)
3. MANDO & GROGU ($25M)
4. MICHAEL ($12M)
5. THE BREADWINNER ($7.5M)

[Sully @Sullyish]

@EmpireCityBO People seem to struggle with understanding that two things can be true at once

[Sully @Sullyish]

He had some personal involvement with UMG, was on their board, the stock has not done that well and he saw some undervaluing I would guess.
Longer-term probably a bet on live music/concerts in AI-era (UMG benefits on backend from increased ancillary revenue - merch, superfans, streaming spikes) + share of catalogue listening is going up (older artists)

[Sully @Sullyish]

@AzianMike @tobi Bill Gurley's 'How To Miss By A Mile'

[Sully @Sullyish]

The Backrooms phenomenon at the box office ($88m on the opening weekend) is the culmination of quite a long-running internet subculture going back to at least mid-2019.

Hollywood has always been in the business of being kinda late to a subculture and then trying to ride a wave and package it for more exposure (e.g. Easy Rider and hippie culture, Rebel Without A Cause and greasers, Marvel universe and comic book fans). But the tail is wagging the dog more so nowadays. This might be the go-to for a while longer as we come to the end of the Marvel/superhero 20-year run. @SeanFennessey I wonder what other waves we will get besides teenage boy IP?

I chatted about liminal spaces and the early growing interest in this (on the sub-reddit) around July 2020 in my trends newsletter. I'd expect more box office 'success' from internet communities and subcultures as we move forward.

[Sully @Sullyish]

@cigarettetax @michaelmiraflor Yup Easy Rider comes to mind from the '60s -

1) A subculture builds authentic identity and emotional resonance over years
2) Hollywood notices it has a passionate audience
3) Packages it for mass consumption

[Sully @Sullyish]

Fashion is fashionable, and then it isn't, then it is again. Lacoste specifically was Preppy mainstay in the '80s, then resurgence in the 2000s (the two decade back cultural cycle at play). Maybe it will come back again but as others point out, it never quite recovered in the US after Izod split, quality has struggled a bit, fierce competition, it's just not the force it used to be

[Sully @Sullyish]

@MattBelloni One of the best minds in media and entertainment, great interview Matt

[Sully @Sullyish]

We're in this sad and predictable slide to stale optimisation and stoicism at the moment. Like the Romans did or the Victorians did after Georgian/Regency era. Just with Whoops and Apple Watches this time.

Anybody with half a brain understands the 'hidden cost' of drinking and can move between doing it more and doing it less.

Humans on aggregate are bad at balance so they swing from restriction to excess and back and forth pretty predictably.

But every optimisation culture eventually needs spontaneity, transgression and danger again.

[Sully @Sullyish]

I mentioned this a little while ago, but it was one of those 'sitting in plain sight'/hidden secret opportunities that Peter Thiel loves funding. Ton of doping going on at the Olympics anyway so why not make it more transparent.

The only thing I wonder is whether people will still have a stigma with the 'enhanced' label for a while, it's like pulling back the magician's curtain. And that will impact whether this gets more mainstream attention. It's like when a consumer of fitness content on YouTube discovers their favourite bodybuilder isn't natty, does the allure go away?

But if it makes these events more exciting to attend and watch/more record-breaking, maybe the average joe will stop caring about the 'enhanced' part.

[FearBuck @FearedBuck]

The Enhanced Games, a sports competition allowing athletes to openly use performance enhancing drugs such as testosterone, HGH, EPO, steroids, stimulants, and other banned substances will begin tomorrow.

Opening events start at 6:30 PM ET on YouTube, Rumble, Twitch, and Kick.

Reported athlete usage stats:
- 91% used testosterone
- 79% used HGH
- 62% used stimulants like Adderall
- 50% used metabolic modulators
- 41% used EPO
- 29% used anabolic steroids

[Sully @Sullyish]

Anthropomorphism continues to rip.

It's funny to imagine that you discover your dog, who you thought is a sweetheart, is actually an absolute dick as soon as you put the collar on.

"Yo where's my dinner, I asked for it 10 minutes ago, go get it bi**h."

[shirish @shiri_shh]

chinese startup built an AI collar that translates barks and meows into full sentences.

95% accuracy. cost $118.

10k people have already pre-ordered it.

It uses mics, motion sensors, and AI to read body language and vocalizations.

[Sully @Sullyish]

@myfirstmilpod @tim_cook @Apple Brand, winning design, convenience, Jobs' legacy of being an insane visionary and in every aspect of the details (see Brian Chesky's latest interviews on TBPN and Invest Like The Best) - huge moats over time

[Sully @Sullyish]

@MarkMBissell @collision Monster Energy and Domino's were wild as well over similar timeframe

[Sully @Sullyish]

@myfirstmilpod I think there will be a few examples like that Porofessor analytics tool for League which was a 1-employee company for ages and sold for 50m Euros plus. Picks and shovels for the GTA 6 economy/world will be a decent play

[Sully @Sullyish]

@myfirstmilpod Yeah like Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite etc., these games become the platforms/ecosystems that support whole economies around them and mint new millionaires

[Sully @Sullyish]

I think like Craigslist got unbundled, Reddit increasingly too, eBay did in some categories like you say.
But eBay is a 30 year old brand, nostalgia factor, brand value is very difficult to kill, still making a lot of money 3bn revenue, 130 million users who can be better activated/monetised, probably a ton of operational inefficiency they can cut. That's where Ryan is sniffing opportunity. Don't write it off so fast, many others have. Could be a sleeping giant with the right people at the helm.

[Sully @Sullyish]

I think we just gotta admit at this point that humans suck at balance. We can never seem to sustain a mix of abstinence and excess for a long period of time. I think a Roman stoic would recognise a ton of the modern impulses for sobriety and physical optimisation.

Party civilization in US and Europe since the post-WW2 and '60s has been slowly burning itself out so something has to fill the void. Obviously there's health benefits but you also get something more emotionally flat as a culture.

[Sully @Sullyish]

I think 1 recent factor is it's data-driven, finance types and technology-only people getting involved with the design of everything and then we all turn around surprised when the result is mediocre and boring across consumer products.

There's a great YouTube video somewhere discussing the decline in the aesthetics of malls, restaurants, cinemas, theme parks since the '90s etc.

But one of the longer term causes is probably the long arc of 20th century modernism which won the war on the ornament. Also don't forget that globalisation rewards the lowest common-denominator in design. If a company serves 50 countries the safest design choice becomes something very neutral. Might explain logo convergence as well.

[Sully @Sullyish]

Agreed, you have extreme/rapid tech changes, there naturally needs to be a counter-balancing force to it.

Yin and yang.

Live experiences, sports, concerts in particular will benefit. And then other tangible non-digital goods too, that's why collectibles like Gary mentions (e.g. Pokemon and baseball trading cards have mooned), that's why vinyl has been one of the few bright points in music for the last decade + nearly.

People will go insane without a counter-balance to a majority digitised and AI-driven world.

[TBPN @tbpn]

"We're about to see the explosion of analog."

@garyvee wants to open a restaurant that makes you check your phone in at the door and seats you at communal tables.

"Extreme AI is creating extreme analog. I think it's a barbell."

"I could not be more interested in physical retail, event-driven businesses, in concerts and venues."

"There are a lot of interesting non-digital realities that are coming as a countermove to the insanity of AI advancements."

"We're literally within a half decade of not believing a single video that's on the internet. In 5 years, if we're having this interview, most of the audience is trying to figure out if we're real or not."

"That is very real, and has substantial counter-opportunities."

"Any real entrepreneur, they're not crying about AI killing them. They're curious about how AI at scale is going to create opportunity for them."

From his appearance on the show in April.