Chartpunk

Trading and hodling #Bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades I No financial advice I Indicators available

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

"I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can’t stop." Hayek 1971

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

We are sooo back

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

We are so back!

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

TLDR
1.25 Billion worth of Bitcoin supply will enter the market.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/AUoUCtem53

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

Made my day 🤣

[Barchart @Barchart]

Incredible to watch CNBC’s Joe Kernen tell Jeremy Grantham he’s been wrong about everything since 2010 😂😂

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

@Barchart Writing call credit spreads would put him on the right side of extrinsic pricing which should be obvious to him.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

The negative gamma is brutal at 60k on the Bitcoin options market. Have not seen this brutal negative column since following this chart.
If 60k fails, the market maker will be forced to hedge via shorting futures - pushing the price further south.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

Every big crypto exchange is already providing proxies allowing altcoin "investors" to rotate into SpaceX.
This IPO will be the biggest capital black hole for the altcoin industry of all times.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

SpaceX will absorb every last bit of "altseason" fuel. The great fundamentals of altcoin investments will rotate into the IPO priced at 285x EBITDA.
Tesla is priced at 400 P/E so SpaceX is still reasonable 😁

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

@options_insight Thank you for the content btw, always something interesting, keep it up

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

@options_insight Indeed, but it behaves calmer, I like to chew on adjustments, short expiries are not really my playground.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

If SpaceX dumps 80% post IPO, it will still trade at the level of 40xEBITDA.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

SpaceX will absorb every last bit of "altseason" fuel. The great fundamentals of altcoin investments will rotate into the IPO priced at 285x EBITDA.
Tesla is priced at 400 P/E so SpaceX is still reasonable 😁

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

SpaceX will absorb every last bit of "altseason" fuel. The great fundamentals of altcoin investments will rotate into the IPO priced at 285x EBITDA.
Tesla is priced at 400 P/E so SpaceX is still reasonable 😁

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

Wen altseason?

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

@MarioNawfal The CEO of the FTX fraud is "helping" small investors to find their way. We really are living in a simulation.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

Option table is pricing seriously elevated implied volatility to the 05/21 and 05/22 $SPX markets. If you like calm market days, you might want to touch grass on these days.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

Bitcoin is sliding upwards in heavy positive gamma territory, market makers are forced to hedge against the move via futures shorts.
Futures APR on long expiries is way lower than treasury yield, derivative market is not positioned for a bull market.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

APR on the Bitcoin futures market is way below treasury yield levels. The market is currently not interested in BTC.
Demand should initially raise APR above base yield, then carry onboards hedging the extreme.
Bull cycle has not started yet.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

ATM7 implied volatility is way under the ATM30 on the Bitcoin options market. Big calm.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

There is a ton of positive gamma around and above 80k. Market makers on the Bitcoin options market will be forced to hedge against further upside.

[Chartpunk @The_Chartpunk]

For context, I am old enough to rememner that 250k has been his S2F target in 2017. Nine years ago. Like clockwork...
How long does it take to declare a model invalid? 20yrs? 50yrs?

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵)

As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range). Interesting times head.