The worst oil shock in history just hit, and the price fell. Crude is cheaper today than the day before the war began, but only because the world quietly drained its emergency reserves to a 43 year low to keep it that way.
Start with the part that already sounds impossible. In March, Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries one in five barrels on Earth. Brent crude tore past 120 dollars. The head of the International Energy Agency called it the worst oil supply disruption in history. Gasoline crossed 6 dollars a gallon in parts of California. Every model said this was the shock that breaks the world.
Now look at your screens and dashboards. Brent sits near 72 dollars and US crude near 69, lower than the day before the first strike, after falling more than 10 percent in a single week, with the strait still contested and drones still hitting ships. The most feared chokepoint on the planet did its absolute worst, and oil got cheaper.
Part of that is real and historic if you carefully check. The United States now pumps a record 13.7 million barrels a day and exports at full tilt, and OPEC is splitting apart, the United Arab Emirates quit the cartel in May and Iraq is now threatening to walk unless it gets a bigger quota. For fifty years a closed Hormuz meant a price spike the world could not escape. This time it never came. The cartel has lost its grip on the most important price on Earth.
But check closely what the calm is hiding. The price only looks tame because America spent its cushion to make it so. The tanks at Cushing, the delivery point for US crude, are nearly empty, the lowest since 2014. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1983. Total US crude stockpiles are the thinnest since 1984. The government has already committed 172 million barrels out of the emergency reserve to hold the line. And the waiver that lets Iranian oil sail at all expires on August 21, with Tehran insisting only it decides who passes. The shock was not defeated. It was absorbed by burning through four decades of buffer, and the buffer is now gone.
The same blockade left one mark the headlines missed. It choked the fertilizer and sulfur leaving those same ports, spiking crop nutrient prices before they eased back, and Asia still draws two thirds of its ammonia from the region. One more closure drops that hit straight onto the food supply at planting season.
The honest caveat matters. If the strait stays open and the tanks refill, the fragility fades and this reads as a triumph of American supply. OPEC swears demand is nowhere near peaking. Fertilizer has already come back down. Reroutes and record US exports are absorbing the blow for now. None of it is settled.
But the shape is unmistakable. The fear premium that ruled oil for half a century died this spring, and that part looks permanent. What replaced it is quieter and more dangerous. The world did not beat the biggest oil shock in history. It put it on a credit card. Reserves drained to a 43 year low, an August deadline on the horizon, and a bill that comes due the moment the strait goes dark again.
The upcoming "Making Music: Conversations with Record Producers" for @tapeopmag by Larry Crane is in @lemon_wire Lemon Wire! Read the review here:
https://t.co/KYqZXM25Zt
Available through Akashic Books at https://t.co/sERQf5jtJV
“[T]he spooky tones & percussive textures scattered throughout come through like UFO transmissions or Lynchian spectres...[JPW & NBSQ] sounds like it comes from everywhere, but most specifically Arizona – with some outer space sprinkled in.” — @tapeopmag
https://t.co/UmF2fOKAsh
A review! AKG has just released a new line of microphones that are aimed at the first-time mic buyer. Here's a look at the AKG C114 & C104 CONDENSER MICS - Great for VO and quality Podcasting. | @tapeopmag#VOgear
https://t.co/i4tYvNlLx2
Sheldon Gomberg:
"I love being in the studio, but you need that live interaction, too, and the immediate response from an audience to keep your chops up. When you play live, it makes you raise your game. You need all of it."
https://t.co/rKkXCJhAne
@tapeopmag Gratified to read this letter in the latest Tape Op magazine regarding my interview (above) with Ambrose Bye. The letter writer, Max Davies, is a musician/producer mentioned in the interview. He discusses the collaboration between poet/drummer Clark Coolidge and Thurston Moore...
New! @tapeopmag interviewed Flemming Rasmussen, the engineer/producer behind the sound of the '80s Metallica albums 🤘
Check it out! ▶️ https://t.co/eRDQvocvpx
"Like the other mics in the C Series, the C151 outperforms its price tag, and as a utility mic for seasoned engineers, or a first microphone for those just starting out, it is a great option."
@AKGaudio
Read Review:
https://t.co/D2wprJ5np5
Jeff Zeigler: "You know how you can stop playing an instrument for a while, and when you come back to it, you're somehow mysteriously better at it than you were before? That's what it was like for me when I started recording."
Read:
https://t.co/xOvzl7XMY3
Rob Evans:
"I had a Radio Shack Realistic PZM overhead mic taped to the ceiling, and a Shure SM57 on the kick drum. The book I had on recording said if you only have two drum mics that’s where to put them."
https://t.co/M2XfwoxkPy
"The Symphony Studio interfaces offer compelling options for engineers and producers seeking high-quality analog I/O in a compact form factor."
Read Review:
https://t.co/XsrnfYbhQo
#recordingstudio#recording@apogeedigital
Chris Koltay:
"Having this degree of control and limitless sonic palate on hand has immeasurably changed my workflow and made for a surprisingly accessible new world of sounds."
https://t.co/mEsH4Z52Ja
Here's a nice REVIEW of the Sony: C-80 Condenser Microphone.
Sony mics are amazing. This mic borrows its medium-sized capsule from the C-100, incorporates design elements from both the C-100 & the C-800G, but has a street price of $499. | @tapeopmag
https://t.co/5JPwROtYJD
"Whatever budget concerns were implemented in bringing the 308P MkII to market, they were done quite thoughtfully, with every intention of bringing the user a quality monitor at a price newbies can afford, and seasoned ears can appreciate."
Read Review:
https://t.co/ejly57aqOt