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⚠️ Pound gives its verdict on Tory leadership race. Sunak good. Johnson bad. Another $GBP short squeeze on the cards tomorrow as risks of another Boris term gets priced out. Positioning is a lot cleaner though so any rally might be short-lived
If a new Chancellor is appointed today, it'll be the fourth person to hold that office in the last 101 days.
Political stability well and truly gone...
⚠️ Strong chance dip buyers emerge for $GBP this week. Markets are pricing in a BoP / fiscal crisis narrative already on the back of Truss. But sensible govt policy that eases stagflation crisis + reduces the need for sharp BoE hikes + lowers deep recession risks = good for pound
Even after the PMIs, markets are pricing in a 60bp rise in Bank Rate by August, implying near certainty that the MPC will hike by 25bp at its next two meetings, and a small chance of a monster 50bp hike. The risk now surely is the MPC bottles it at one of those meetings.
The PMI's collapse in May brings it closer to levels seen when the MPC has cut Bank Rate than hiked it before. The resilience of the price and employment balances likely will persuade the MPC to hike again in Jun or Aug, but the rapid hikes envisaged by markets now are v unlikely