Today my son and I played Yoloponom, #monopoly in reverse as a lesson in State Socialism. The bank pays you to take property, becoming a liability (you pay the other players the rent due if they land on your color sets and you must build houses), passing Go puts $200 in free” (1/3)
beginning, then it gets less and less fun over time. Especially paying thousands of dollars for something as arbitrary as parking. The winner is the person with the least debt at the end. Good news! He hates socialism now.
Food for thought if you don’t believe bond volatility matters for stocks. This chart shows what happens when the MOVE index breaks out by 50% or more in a 3 month period (last Friday jumped 14%). $TLT $SPY
The Vix can (and has just recently) risen alongside the market. Agree it is useful for predicting short term moves in the market. Big moves in the MOVE index are referenced here for a reason, which is that it is a better predictor of macro regime change. The author is setting an explicit target for the S&P during a potential inflection point where value may start to matter again, prolonging that goalpost for a long time.
The recent move toward China resuming and expanding purchases of U.S. oil adds a direct trade channel effect that supports both oil prices and the USD at the same time. Higher U.S. energy exports to China tighten global crude balances (supporting oil), while also increasing demand for dollars to settle trade and reinforcing the dollar’s role in energy transactions amid geopolitical fragmentation. This keeps oil elevated on supply–demand tightening and keeps the dollar strong on trade settlement flows and safe-haven reach.
@biancoresearch With respect to Jevon, the worst unemployment of his lifetime was briefly 11%. This is what Claude estimates under peak AI adoption at a long term level. Hard to reconcile this with his original idea.