The Don’t Pass Line

[Natalie F Danelishen @Chesschick01]

We have to understand this.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@Seniorstrategen That JPMorgan collar though! I like gap fills but the top of the collar is 6850 by June 30th.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@elonmusk would appreciate this. #socialism

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

Today my son and I played Yoloponom, #monopoly in reverse as a lesson in State Socialism. The bank pays you to take property, becoming a liability (you pay the other players the rent due if they land on your color sets and you must build houses), passing Go puts $200 in free” (1/3)

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

beginning, then it gets less and less fun over time. Especially paying thousands of dollars for something as arbitrary as parking. The winner is the person with the least debt at the end. Good news! He hates socialism now.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@OddStats Beer me.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@Mayhem4Markets Specifically, Nasdaq drops approaching 5% are rarely bought on Monday.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

The apes are here to play 🦧
$AMC

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@LottoLabs @grok what does yer mean?

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

babe wake up, the apes are back 🫣 $AMC

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@sam_gatlin 2027 maturity wall for cheap Covid-era funding. Forward looking earnings with reset coming.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@yuriymatso MOVE index about to break something.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

Market sentiment: “I’m guessing he’s gonna swerve first.” $NVDA vs $TLT

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

Food for thought if you don’t believe bond volatility matters for stocks. This chart shows what happens when the MOVE index breaks out by 50% or more in a 3 month period (last Friday jumped 14%). $TLT $SPY

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@NoLimitGains This is a synthetic stock long with only a few mild non-earnings related catalysts in the next month. I’ll pass.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

The Vix can (and has just recently) risen alongside the market. Agree it is useful for predicting short term moves in the market. Big moves in the MOVE index are referenced here for a reason, which is that it is a better predictor of macro regime change. The author is setting an explicit target for the S&P during a potential inflection point where value may start to matter again, prolonging that goalpost for a long time.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

The recent move toward China resuming and expanding purchases of U.S. oil adds a direct trade channel effect that supports both oil prices and the USD at the same time. Higher U.S. energy exports to China tighten global crude balances (supporting oil), while also increasing demand for dollars to settle trade and reinforcing the dollar’s role in energy transactions amid geopolitical fragmentation. This keeps oil elevated on supply–demand tightening and keeps the dollar strong on trade settlement flows and safe-haven reach.

[The Don’t Pass Line @TheDontPassLine]

@biancoresearch With respect to Jevon, the worst unemployment of his lifetime was briefly 11%. This is what Claude estimates under peak AI adoption at a long term level. Hard to reconcile this with his original idea.