Brian Rudick

Chief Strategy Officer @UpexiTreasury. Formerly Head of Research @gsr_io, hedge funds @Citadel, Balyasny, Millennium. Opinions are my own & NFA

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

I’m excited to share that I have joined @UpexiTreasury - the leading @Solana treasury company - as Chief Strategy Officer responsible for the cryptocurrency strategy and public visibility efforts 🏎️ 🏎️ 🏎️

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Crypto's biggest near-term headwind might not be inside crypto at all. It is AI pulling attention and capital. When one theme absorbs most of the narrative and most of the marginal dollars, everything else trades heavy regardless of its own progress.

You can see it in the flows. Money concentrates where the story is loudest, and right now that is AI. It does not mean crypto stops progressing. It means price can lag the build for a while when the capital is going elsewhere.

This will reverse when the cycle turns and/or when investors realize crypto and AI are symbiotic

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

$SOL still trades with a beta to $BTC, but they are completely different assets. The former is the token for a new computing paradigm, while the latter is a store of value. I suspect the correlation falls over time, both as investors learn the difference and as @Solana 's underlying fundamentals continue to accelerate

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@Solana is the first second generation blockchain. As such, it to benefit from both best-in-class technology like parallel transaction execution AND from strong network effects having launched in 2020.

I have a hard time seeing how new chains can compete...

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

There is some thought to the interenet business model changing completely. It is currently built around advertising, but if AI agents eventually constitute the bulk of internet traffic and don't click on ads, something will have to change. It might just be arming browsers and agents with crypto wallets and charging them fractions of a penny to view pages.

Interesting article from @Cloudflare , which is already moving in this direction

[Cloudflare @Cloudflare]

We're opening the waitlist for our Monetization Gateway, which will allow you to charge for any web page, dataset, API, or MCP tool behind Cloudflare. The charges will settle in stablecoins over the x402 open protocol. https://t.co/pvICtEIixj

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Large institutions utilizing blockchain-based rails and potentially owning much of the activity goes against crypto ideals and is likely disheartening for some. That said, traditional companies come with massive distribution and can lead to a step-change in usage.

To me, we should encourage corporate adoption, and then once blockchain/crypto usage is widespread, we can disintermediate the intermediaries with truly decentralized products and services. This is how we avoid being a cottage industry and trojan horse our way into DeFi being ubiquitous

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

I would sub AI Agents for vaults, but yes, so many ways to win

[Andy @andyyy]

Perps, stablecoins, tokenization, prediction markets, and vaults.

The Starting 5.

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@MorganStanley amended its proposed Ethereum and @Solana ETF filings to a 0.14% fee, the lowest of any US crypto ETF. That undercuts Grayscale at 0.15% and Franklin Templeton at 0.19%. The proposed SOL fund would list on NYSE Arca as MSOL and pass through 95% of staking rewards.

IMO the part worth flagging is what a fee at this level tells you about the stage. Issuers don't compete on price until the product is close to a commodity and the fight is for share, the same compression the spot BTC ETFs went through. SOL ETF AUM already crossed $1B, led by @BitwiseInvest's BSOL, so there is real share to fight over.

Filings still under SEC review, no firm launch date.

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@openstandard made quite the splash last week with its announcement of the $OUSD stablecoin. What is particularly notable to me is that OUSD will launch natively on @Solana from day one.

[Solana @solana]

BREAKING: Open USD is launching natively on Solana from day one.

A new shared stablecoin, owned and governed by its partners. No mint or redeem fees, no volume caps, and nearly all the reserve economics flow back to the businesses building it.

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Loved sharing the @Solana bull case on @Crypto_TownHall today💜https://t.co/8lfZ7fOx7w

[Crypto Town Hall @Crypto_TownHall]

https://t.co/s7ZOWOMkLe

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@Solana is crushing it with 30d RWA inflows, per @rwa_xyz 🔥

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

IMO, the biggest driver of crypto prices over the next month will be what happens with CLARITY, as the next four weeks are critical.

@Polymarket has passage odds at 48% rn, but feels to me like there is more upside if we can get this passed than downside if it doesn't...

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Far from scientific, but feels like the sentiment on CT is turning.

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Current DAT pref effective yields:

$BMNP 11.4%
$SATA 13.4%
$STRC 13.6%

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Using an expected value framework and assigning some probability that central banks will buy BTC means Bitcoin is priced too low.

Specifically, if you assume BTC goes to $1m if central bank buying causes a war for Bitcoin but only falls slightly if this was ruled out, BTC should be a lot higher with even low single-digit odds of governments buying. And I do think the odds are at least that high, given a US President with the majority of his net worth in crypto and government leaders stating that they would like to see this happen.

And, I would argue that this is both not priced in and that the No Buying scenario should be the current price of Bitcoin as you can't rule out central bank buying ex ante

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@Microstrategy announces actions to defend $STRC, including a dividend hike, divi & reserve policies, and $STRC & $MSTR repurchase programs.

The key line for $STRC is: "Strategy’s corporate objective is for STRC to trade over time in a range of ~$99 to $100" showing they will continue to try to push it to par.

A few items some may perceive negatively, like a new $BTC monetization program (but w guardrails and for good reason), acknowledging it won't change the $STRC divi rate solely bc $STRC trades below par (IMO smart), and the buyback authorizations could have been larger.

But this tells me two massive items:
1) @Microstrategy will support $STRC, which will enable future issuance should / as the effective yield falls to buy more BTC, and
2) @Microstrategy can now monetize its multiple whether it's at a premium or discount, increasing BTC per share regardless of its current valuation for the benefit of shareholders

IMO, this will gradually remove one of the biggest overhangs on the market today.
cc' @saylor
https://t.co/ALKIrBDw06

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@Microstrategy announces actions to defend $STRC, including a dividend hike, divi & reserve policies, and $STRC & $MSTR repurchase programs.

The key line for $STRC is: "Strategy’s corporate objective is for STRC to trade over time in a range of ~$99 to $100" showing they will continue to try to push it to par.

A few items some may perceive negatively, like a new $BTC monetization program (but w guardrails and for good reason), acknowledging it won't change the $STRC divi rate solely bc $STRC trades below par (IMO smart), and the buyback authorizations could have been larger.

But this tells me two massive items:
1) @Microstrategy will support $STRC, which will enable future issuance should / as the effective yield falls to buy more BTC, and
2) @Microstrategy can now monetize its multiple whether it's at a premium or discount, increasing BTC per share regardless of its current valuation for the benefit of shareholders

IMO, this will gradually remove one of the biggest overhangs on the market today.
cc' @saylor
https://t.co/ALKIrBDw06

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

.@MicroStrategy is not stuck! Great discussion on @Crypto_TownHall 🙌
https://t.co/Se19UBaG3Y

[Crypto Town Hall @Crypto_TownHall]

https://t.co/5UCBEGxRR9

[Upexi @UpexiTreasury]

Upexi has been added to the Russell Microcap® Index

"Membership broadens our visibility within the institutional investment community and among the index funds and active managers that reference the Russell indexes," stated @UpexiTreasury CEO @UpexiAllan

https://t.co/no9quHMsaa

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Crypto sentiment is in the gutter as AI steals the spotlight, but there is a low probability but massive potential catalyst that could push BTC to $1m per share in the near-term: government buying.

Crypto prices are determined by flows, and IMO the main reason BTC rallied from $25k in mid-2023 was due to the $50b of US spot ETF net flows launch-to-date. Maybe it doesn't happen soon (given midterms) or at all, but the US buying BTC could start a global war for Bitcoin that makes all other crypto bull markets seem small.

This to me is the biggest and most underdiscussed potential catalyst that could result in massive net new demand.

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

"MoneyGram has spent the past several years integrating blockchain into our payment infrastructure, and everything we are building now leverages this foundation. We believe the future of global money movement will be built on open, interoperable stablecoin rails that anyone, anywhere can access."

Pretty powerful statement from the CEO of @MoneyGram, which joined the Solana Developer Platform and is now a @Solana validator

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

@adelbucetta @Blockworks 👀

[Brian Rudick @thetinyant]

Blockchain decentralization is a highly nuanced concept, and incorporates many ideas like permissionless participation, developmental control, key person influence, token allocation/distribution, stake characteristics, and software and hardware diversity.

Check out @Blockworks's recent report on @Solana decentralization, link below

https://t.co/uf3aiKHUQy