Flying Tiger Strategies

The Flying Tigers dominated their theater of war with asymetrical tactics. I invest in a similar way.
Covering $NBIS since 2/25
$IREN $ONDS $NUAI $OSS $AKAM

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

$NBIS - I wouldn't be surprised if Nebius is part of the consortium that Nokia assembles for Finland's bid as a EU AI gigafactory. A AI gigafactory in Finland is compelling. Massive sources of energy to be tapped. Finland is sitting on a geothermic reserve that has been reported as enough energy for "20 million years" - not even an exaggeration!

Nebius seems in a good position here with their Finnish center, NVIDIA partnership, and expertise 👀👀

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@DeepValueBagger Are you a fellow sailor? Been eying a nice 50 foot monohull myself, even thought I know I will stay fully allocated 😂

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@AngryFatYtGuy @SwiminScorpions Sir have you heard of Warhammer 40k 😂 might not be your style but this style resonates with an entire community

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

$AKAM is one of the positions I've been building since early 2026, in the same way where I was buying $NBIS in the 20s and 30s and $IREN around 10.

The asymetry may not be as violent as a post Yandex, misunderstood NBIS is, but structurally, there is a huge opportunity that $AKAM is positioned for edge infrastructure.

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@KizzyInvests @danielisdizzy @KizzyInvests well said. For those who have a deeper understanding of the space and what to actually look for, the data paints a clear picture. Some accounts just don't bother to make those connections or thorough research. Don't waste your time 😂

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@moninvestor Things are finally aligning for $NUAI... Holding with a $0.57 avg!

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@BlackPantherCap @BlackPantherCap @EndicottInvests is this enough diversification to protect against going all in? 😂

It's only 70% of this particular port!

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

This is a lazy take but happy to check back in 6 months and let the numbers prove who was right or wrong. For anyone who has actually been following the company over a long time frame, you would understand the risk the executive team took when NBIS was formed and the founder team completely purged all Russian holdings and associations with Yandex. They have had a significant amount of their net worth tied up in building NBIS. It would be more surprising to me to see them not file for planned filings for liquidity.

[ClickHouse @ClickHouseDB]

Congratulations to @AnthropicAI on raising $65bn.

When Claude 3.5 launched, their engineers asked Claude which database to use. Claude recommended ClickHouse.

Fast forward a year and we launched ClickHouse Agents. powered by Claude. Here's to building together.

https://t.co/nuosoc1JsZ

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

Post like these are why I like $LPTH

[dylan ツ @demian_ai]

There is one pinned date on the AI Bottlenecks dashboard. The other six are forecasts. November 27, 2026 came courtesy of Beijing.

Last November, China suspended an export ban on three elements. The financial press called it a withdrawal. The filing said "suspend." The difference between those two words is six months long, and the clock is now running...

The filing came from China's commerce ministry on a quiet day in early November. It paused a U.S.-specific ban from December 2024 on gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials. The pause is narrow, and the licensing apparatus underneath the ban stayed in place. If November 27 passes without a new pause, the prior rule snaps back on by default. The escalation never disappeared. It was put on a six-month timer.

The pause sits inside a two-year escalation. Gallium and germanium came under export licensing in August 2023. Antimony joined in 2024. The December 2024 move hardened the rules into a near-outright U.S. ban. April 2025 added heavy and medium rare earths to the same regime. October 2025 added one more tranche that was also paused, with its own expiry about ten days before the big one. November 27 is the largest clock on the board.

The three elements do not appear on marketing slides. They live in the indium phosphide ecosystem. InP substrates are the base wafer for every coherent optical transceiver above 800 Gbps. They also sit underneath the photodetectors inside co-packaged optics modules. Gallium grows the thin layer on top of those substrates that turns photons back into electrons. Germanium shows up in adjacent optics and fiber processes. Antimony belongs to the same family of compound-semiconductor materials these chips depend on. Two layers down from the GPU, this chemistry decides whether a 100,000-GPU cluster can talk to itself fast enough to train a frontier model.

The non-Chinese supplier base for polished InP substrate is very small. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 8053) in Japan runs a chemical division that serves a few strategic customers and gives few interviews. $AXTI is U.S.-listed but produces almost all of its InP through its Tongmei subsidiary in mainland China, which puts the company on both sides of the policy line. $IQE, Freiberger, and a handful of smaller players sit further down the stack.

That oligopoly has been running at record order books for two quarters. AXT has publicly discussed doubling InP capacity through 2026. Sumitomo has prioritized existing customers and shown limited third-party expansion. Without the Chinese supply that the pause currently permits, the world has roughly one and a half non-Chinese suppliers carrying the photonics buildout that drives Rubin Ultra in 2027 and HBM4E thereafter.

That math is the heart of the date.

If the ban re-imposes on November 27, the non-Chinese substrate base becomes the entire ex-China market overnight. Sumitomo's allocations get political. AXT becomes the most awkward stock in U.S.-listed photonics, because its substrate production is the thing being controlled. Scarcity premiums build across the InP and rare-earth complex. The 2027 ramp slips at the margin. Optical components get more expensive. The cost of training and serving frontier models drifts up.

If the pause is extended or quietly removed, the same names compress 30 to 60% over weeks. The premium unwinds. The 2027 ramp gets cheaper. Hyperscalers win. AXT's policy-exposure discount narrows.

The basket implications are easy to lay out and harder to time. Substrate and III-V upstream: AXTI, MTSI, https://t.co/8Yq2p6BL8F, IQE.L, SUMCO, Sumitomo Electric. Photonics and CPO: LITE, COHR, AAOI, MXL. Rare-earth complex sharing the policy axis: MP, https://t.co/EHtKWxtVBw, https://t.co/CmsRujamgl, ALOY. Metrology and inspection picking up second-sourcing work: ONTO, CAMT. None of those will move on the date itself. They will move on the headline that follows the date.

Either way, the basket moves on a fixed schedule. That is rare for a catalyst at this scale. Most market catalysts arrive on a curve. This one arrives on a published expiry.

The information here is public. The filings, the transcripts, the supplier disclosures. The arithmetic of non-Chinese InP capacity against AI optical demand fits on a single line of a spreadsheet. The advantage is patience to put the date on a calendar before the front-page coverage catches up.

By the time a chokepoint is on the front page, the move is largely over. The prize goes to whoever mapped the chain when it was boring.

November 27, 2026

(Not financial advice.)

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@babyfolio @Docofgothm @steady_profits Selfishly, more NBIS then 😂😂😂🤪🚀

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@SohoNehel Up to 70% of the total port since starting to buy last Feb 🫡

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

No I'm not worried. You contradict yourself in the above message- if you are truly LONG in conviction on a play, then you shouldn't care about short term price action.

The way I approach DCA strategy is to not deploy all my dry powder all at once. That way if there is a even more significant downturn, I will be buying more on the way down. I bought through deepseek, liberation day, and post October wave on $NBIS. Only sell if the thesis breaks.

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@oihjklhiwiu @DeepValueBagger I've missed many similar moments too. We are always learning. Best of luck to you my friend!

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

I prefer DCA entry points strategically to add versus trading to accumulate, but fundamentally, I've found that limit orders at the right levels trumps manually watching.

For example- I had a limit order set for my next NBIS DCA at the 1.618 fib, and it filled around $186.25 automatically, rather than me having to watch and wait and pounce. Was way too busy with work to have sniped that precisely.

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

Love the NBIS enthusiasm but building both has been nice because I've been able to add on each only when the best DCA opportunity comes up. Gives me a little more flexibility in where to optimize my monthly war chest. Scooping up IREN at 10 was a good entry. Worked out so far, but NBIS is my highest conviction for sure!

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

I hold both too for similar thesis, but I don't think NBIS is nearly done yet. AI sovereignty and inference at scale (Clickhouse/NBIS inference speed/orchestration) is going to be huge through 2026. I think we will be pleasantly surprised.

That being said I've still been adding to both NBIS and IREN without trimming one for the other.

What's your NBIS/IREN ratio?

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@yunus_sekman @EndicottInvests This is not the mentality to have to build compounding positions like NBIS lol

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@Para_Capital How are you feeling about AVAV this quarter? Haven't had much dry powder to build more locust exposure while it's down, I've been building my edge AI positions... I saw your ktos post lately too

[Flying Tiger Strategies @Tiger_Strat]

@FrameworkWisely Yep I have roughly a 3:1 ratio favoring NBIS too 😆