Founder of Tolou Capital Management. Global macro, market neutral, risk optimization. Aiming for positive real returns in all climates. Not investment advice.
Let’s just take the Fed’s logic at face value for a second.
They need to start cutting rates because the job market is so weak and rapidly getting worse. And tariffs are so demand destructive that they are actually deflationary.
Are we sure we should be mega bulling everything to the moon because of that?
The most telling price action after Powell caved?
Gold vs. USD.
Gold rockets in a straight line up.
Dollar collapses in a straight line down.
We are a 3rd world country.
Powell caves and now we are cutting rates into rapidly rising inflation.
Whatever transpires over the next 12 months, just don’t say you weren’t warned.
“I’ve ended 7 wars. They said I actually ended 10 wars. They added 3 more that I didn’t even know about. But it could have been bad. So I ended them.” - Donald Trump
Inside the mind of an extremely stable genius.