kapal lawd

talks tech (AI, blockchain), money mgmt, manchester city fc and Indo govt stupid policy

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

is considering being offline on X and IG to focus on other things.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

"Hollow Middle" is scarier than you think.

Search it and be prepared for it.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Yang belum adalah artificial superintelligence (ASI), ini yg masih debatable, krn perlu inovasi dalam bidang fisika.
Mungkin perlu memasuki era quantum computing dulu, baru terasa lebih feasible untuk diciptakan.

So, ASI masih jauh, tp AGI sudah dimulai dan sdg berlangsung.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Brace yourself:
Byk investor asing akan pergi FOR GOOD dari IDX.

Apakah semua investor asing pergi? Tidak semua, tp majority

Apakah tidak invest samsek? Tetap ada sektor yg mereka akan invest, good dividend stocks dan energy stocks, bukan lagi BBCA (kcuali dividennya cuan)

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Physical AI bukan lagi prediksi, tapi cuma masalah waktu. Pasti akan datang, pasti akan terjadi.

Kita sudah bisa dibilang masuk ke AGI utk bbrp sektor seperti software engineering (coding).
Sektor hi-intellectual sperti SWE aja bisa diautomate, knp sektor lain tidak.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

when being 'mature' turns out being simple, and do the essentials, and the rest is about love, love, and love.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

@techNmak Everyone should learn code, but don't waste your time pursue a formal 4-years CS degree just to learn shipping apps at scale.

It's time to learn fundamental and practical of software engineering in less than 4 years, try do finish it within 1-2 years.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Pengurangan employment ini berasal dari hilangnya middle-class.

Kita yg gajinya 2x UMR atau lebih, tapi masih cicil KPR rumah. Middle class itu kita.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Akan ada masa GDP suatu negara naik siknifikan 1-2%, padahal ada pengurangan employment 10-20%.

Dan bagaimana jika, ini bukan prediksi?

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Don't trust AI!
Not because AI answer is inaccurate or wrong.

but because,
we will eventually RELY on them.

That's very dangerous.
And more dangerous IF,

IF we trust AI more than our species, human.

Because soon AI will become smarter, friendlier, and persuasive.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

@lwastuargo Imo, the 95% become irrelevance.
Let government take care of them.

That's just how capitalism works.
If we can see value in you or any'thing', you are an asset.
If not, you are a liability.
And in capitalism, we optimize by cutting liabilities if possible.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Akan ada momen dimana negara akan mem-pajak penghasilan dari "robot" penyedia jasa.

Bukan transaksinya yg dipajak, tapi literally robot nya dipajak, seperti PPh 21 (pajak penghasilan) untuk robot.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Seems easy but no.
From the last startup hype, some people are paid $$$ and now they live in a pretty high lifestyle.

This is habitual, very hard to change and some will say "it is over, we're done" and quit, but actually everything gonna be ok, IF you lower down your lifestyle.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

We just moved from:

abundance of information

to:

abundance of builders

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

what does this means?

fierce market competition in software engineering, either talents, B2B projects, and B2C customers.

in another way, expect a lower compensation if you still want to work in this industry.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Or as simple as popular tech spokespersons tweet like Elon or Andrej

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

This current high-tech world is a fragile superstructure built on top of a foundational world that doesn't actually need it to survive.

That's the premis of the falling of AI hype. The trigger could be many:
Infra materials (like GPU, RAM) price drops, we know China can do it.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

Bisnis data center bukan bisnis teknologi, tapi bisnis properti.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

This country commit to these industries: renewable energy, food security, affordable housing.

The vision is right and effective, but I have no vision to the implementation, I might be pessimistic.

[kapal lawd @tomiepalito]

You are in the right country to live in for the next 100 years.

But also you are in the worst country to live in because this country might ends in less than 10 years -- if you are apathetic to politics and propaganda by narratives spread in the social media.