Do I know exactly where BTC will bottom?
Of course not, no one does.
However, probabilistically, when looking at the macro regime in confluence w/ the state of the crypto ecosystem, and a break of five year support, I think $BTC trades through this low volume range for a time.
📈 #Ethereum $ETH Open Interest in Perpetual Futures Contracts just reached a 1-month high of $805,440,603.66 on #Bybit
Previous 1-month high of $804,822,150.47 was observed on 14 October 2022
View metric:
https://t.co/idKO9SSJv8
📉 #Ethereum $ETH Open Interest in Perpetual Futures Contracts just reached a 1-month low of $79,962,750.08 on #Bitmex
Previous 1-month low of $81,746,713.66 was observed on 26 July 2022
View metric:
https://t.co/e7FMfP2liP
IMO this is the most compelling chart in crypto:
When large amounts of stablecoins are on the sideline relative to crypto's mkt cap, market participants have to chase the rally higher. When there's a lot of stables deployed but no one left to buy, market runs out of new buyers.
@TheCryptoLark Depends on the outcome, but here's what's gonna happen:
Inflation:
>9.0% very bearish, stock prices will drop (#BTC too)
8.6% - 8.9% bad but expected, could be priced in already
<8.6% we will see a relief bounce in the short term
I believe that there is a massive short opportunity for $ETH at ~$1200 over the next 2 months.
We still have not seen real capitulation yet and July / August are lining up to be potentially the worst months.
Here is how I am thinking about things 🧵
Key liquidations to keep your eye on at the moment:
Celsius: 23,962 $wBTC @ $13,604 ($477m).
SOL whale via @solendprotocol: 5.7m $SOL @ $22.30 ($160m).
ETH whale via @AaveAave: 152k $ETH @ $895 ($141m).