@trading

Market observations from the trenches.
Trade on Polymarket

[@trading @trading]

🚨 SCAM ALERT: “https://t.co/pqJ03JUyx7” Wallet Drainer

Do NOT connect your wallet to https://t.co/pqJ03JUyx7.

This is not an arbitrage tool. It is designed to drain your wallet.

Here is how the scam works:

1. The site promises “risk-free arbitrage profits”
2. You connect your wallet
3. You are asked to “approve” or “start the bot”
4. You sign a transaction that grants unlimited access to your tokens

Once approved, the attacker can move your funds at any time.

• Sometimes instantly

• Sometimes hours later to avoid detection

No hack. No exploit.

You approved it.

Know of a scam? Let us know.

[@trading @trading]

🧠 Iran conflict update: On the “Trump announces end of military operations against #Iran by…?” market, March 31 sits top with the largest implied probability and $271K vol. as traders weigh ongoing escalation

➡ https://t.co/J7u0Q4HO0Z

#Trump has said US combat to persist until objectives are met despite rising casualties & regional spillovers

[@trading @trading]

🗳️ US Govt Shutdown: #Polymarket traders have ~$29M+ vol. on “US government #shutdown Saturday?” market.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

Current pricing reflects 66% odds 'Yes' as political standoff over #DHS funding & #Capitol gridlock feed uncertainty ahead of the deadline

[@trading @trading]

🗣️ #WEF26 odds: Polymarket has ~$100K+ vol. on the “What will #Trump say during #WEF Address” market

Popular phrases include “NATO” (~94%) along with “Globalist/Global” & “Denmark/Norway,” reflecting #Davos tensions over strategy & alliances

➡ https://t.co/J7u0Q4HO0Z

#Davos26 #WEF2026

[@trading @trading]

🏈 #SuperBowl latest: #Polymarket has $682.7m volume. #Seahawks currently 39.1%, #Rams 27.3%, #Patriots 26.6% & #Broncos 6.9%. Tight top three with Denver clear outsiders this morning.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

#NFL #SuperbowlLX

[@trading @trading]

🧠 Iran strike odds update: With $45M vol on “US strikes #Iran by", #Polymarket traders are reacting to tensions inc #Trump pulling personnel from bases, airspace closures & ongoing protests

Pricing reflects caution on military action

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#MiddleEast

[@trading @trading]

🧠 Iran strike odds: #Polymarket shows substantial volume and lifted pricing on “US strikes Iran by Jan. 31,” mirroring real-world tension as Trump weighs military options and urges protesters to keep up pressure while canceling talks.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#Iran #Trump

[@trading @trading]

🧭 Greenland deal bet: #Polymarket traders price “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027” at low odds, suggesting minimal market support for any serious land purchase narrative despite recent headlines and claims

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

#Trump #GreenlandIsNotForSale

[@trading @trading]

🧠 Iran latest: #Polymarket shows elevated volume on “Khamenei out by Jan 31” amid heightened regional tensions and speculation

Traders are engaged but pricing implies doubt that leadership change happens in this timeline

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#Iran #Khamenei #Trump

[@trading @trading]

🟥 #EPL title odds snapshot: #Polymarket traders price #Arsenal as clear favourite (~73%), with Man City next (~23%).

All other clubs sit in the low single-digit probabilities to win the 2025-26 Premier League.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#PremierLeague #AFC #MCFC #AVFC #LFC

[@trading @trading]

🗳️ #Venezuela leadership odds: #Polymarket traders price Delcy Rodríguez as the most likely head of state at ~42%, with Edmundo González and María Corina Machado trailing at ~16% and ~14% respectively. Nicolás Maduro remains a longshot by end-2026.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

[@trading @trading]

🛡️ Despite weekend #Trump rhetoric and regional tensions, #Polymarket traders this morning still price a US strike on #Colombia by January 31 as unlikely.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#LatinAmerica #Venezuela

[@trading @trading]

🛡️ #Venezuela risk check: Despite Trump’s recent rhetoric toward Caracas, #Polymarket traders still price a US invasion as unlikely in the "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" market.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

#Trump #venezuelainvasion

[@trading @trading]

📺 #StrangerThings death odds: In the #Polymarket “Who will die in #StrangerThings5 ” market, Eight is the most priced-in fatality (73%) ahead of Eleven (38%)

Other characters far lower, suggesting traders see Eight’s arc as the biggest risk

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIjHO

#Netflix

[@trading @trading]

🕊️ Ceasefire talks check: #Polymarket traders remain cautious. In the market on whether #Ukraine agrees to US-backed #ceasefire framework, near-term outcomes stay low-priced, signalling scepticism that a deal is close

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#UkraineRussiaWar #CeasefireNOW

[@trading @trading]

🎄 Santa Update! In the #Polymarket “How many gifts will #Santa deliver in 2025?” market, traders are backing 8.2–8.3 billion range at 94% implied, with over $1.27 N total volume as @NoradSanta prepares to track Santa’s journey this #ChristmasEve

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

[@trading @trading]

📂 #EpsteinFiles update: In the #Polymarket “Who will be named in newly released #Epstein files?” market, Elon Musk (98%) & Stephen Colbert (97%) dominate implied odds as traders look at high-profile names following today’s DOJ release of new documents

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

[@trading @trading]

🎄 Santa tracker: The #Polymarket “How many gifts will #Santa deliver?” market currently has over $1M volume!

A popular market with traders backing 8.2–8.3 billion gifts (~94%)

@NoradSanta will determine the total number delivered this #Christmas

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

[@trading @trading]

📂 #Epsteinfiles update: In the live #Polymarket “Will #Trump release more #Epstein files by Dec 26?” market, traders currently price a Dec 22 outcome at 14% & Dec 26 at 38% - signalling skepticism that significant new files will drop this week.

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

[@trading @trading]

🥊 JakeJoshua odds: In the #Polymarket Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua market, AJ is heavily favoured with ~85% implied probability, @jakepaul sits on 12%, with 3% Draw/No Score

Markets clearly lean toward AJ tonight

➡ https://t.co/uFTn7pIRxm

#Boxing #PaulVsJoshua #JakeJoshua