Clocking in for an update after an eventful 48h.
I can not be bearish here when max doom is consensus into strong HTF support on stupid oversold levels.
Re-testing 71-72 is imo next, will re-evaluate once (if) we get there.
If we get to 72k we either start the July rally or we set up another bull trap before we take out the lows.
To start a lasting rally, we would probably need continuous sp500 aths, followed by clarity act passing + saylor taking a break from being funny + actual iran peace deal. This sequence can happen, but I'm leaning 70/30 that smth can go wrong and 71-72k will act as a resistance.
Overall, I'm optimistic that the next 12h shall give us all the insight we need to determine if enough damage has been done.
fortunes will be made.. fortunes will be lost.
clocking out for summer, will check-in when alarms hit at key inflection points or if smth really cool happens :)
Have a great summer everyone
Local
bottoms
always
feel
scary.
The amount of times I have panic sold the pico bottom.. countless.
so many coins are changing hands right now based on "realizations" that should have been part of your thesis few weeks ago.
Every time we're in such moments if feels like its over - until it isnt. this time aint different imo.
Grand rising!
Had a lovely morning playing golf with the goat, thanks to @okx!
Been heavily short past weeks, but will TP most into 68k for a potential bounce to mid 70s before lower into mid june.
fortunes will be made.. fortunes will be lost.
clocking out for summer, will check-in when alarms hit at key inflection points or if smth really cool happens :)
Have a great summer everyone
@blueflameice@Michaejack37336 I got stink bids from 1400 to 980$ I'm too old to try to time the picobottom, but I think it would be a lost opportunity from eth whales to not clearthe 1500$ cluster & max bid the wick
Good morning token connoisseurs.
1)I think at one point soon we will feel saylor twap out the same way we felt him absorb a few months back. Seasonality is defo not playing in his cards (reminds me of germany selling their billions$ of btc like 3 years back into summer w 0 orderbook depth?)
Donโt forget saylor gave 0 fucks buying tops, so I assume he might be as skilled selling into local bottoms?
I think the initial selling pressure will cause us trouble, but the public announcement will cause a serious wick (could even turn into the june low).
2) Middle east tensions still there + the strait of hormuz is still closed (remember at the beginning when they said โthe world will go to 0 if it stays closed for longer than X weeksโ well its been X weeks haha but the ai bubble craze makes the few select investing individuals forget that the normal person is hurting, economy slowing down and inflation aint no joke. (rate hikes would be insane but in the cards)
3) Crypto valuations are simply not interesting rn but -40% on majors would make them attractive again, flush out rest of memecoin & high fdv low float vc scams + reduce dependence on saylor/tom lee.
Restart the actual institutional cycle in 2027 with clarity act & gov. support and actual mass adoption because tech became useful.
Ethereum as global settlement layer will imo once again make sense, especially post quantum world. So unironically excited to buy 3 figs eth and ride that dinosaur to 8k.
a bullโs finest hour is the one before the bang.
stars aligning, crypto bill decision, new fed chair, tensions rising in the ME again.
If you havent had the guts to be long past weeks, imo not the moment to fomo into the last leg before a potential disastrous summer.
@Michaejack37336 wait till the 1500$ cluster gets cleared sir - you havent been here during covid and it shows ๐ด๐ผ
(this would require ww3, or tradfi meltdown but defo a possibility)
Good evening gang-gang.
I think the selling is going to accelerate in the coming days/weeks/months. (v unlikely that btc will not struggle again if/when stonks finally start to slide).
imo at one point, you will look back and wonder why you didn't sell in may & walk away like you said you would.
I genuinely think sol to 50$, eth has the good old 1500$ on-chain liq cluster that could cause a cascade to idk 900$? btc probz below 50k when the time comes in the coming months. (unless saylor and strc/mstr actually start to offload more aggressively, then I can see the usual -70% happening, which would get us sub 40k)
I inherently dislike being a doomer, but for the past few months, I have been struggling to allocate capital into anything for longer than a few weeks.
Also sold most of my alternative assets, and boy do I feel light. (big thank u as usual to @cryptoaladeen)
I really thought (like so many others) that the collecting game shall make me feel a certain type of way. For me personally, more real estate, more cars, more everything led to more emails about car insurance, more annoying tasks related to tenancies, unlimited random bills and a serious amount of mental clutter. (No, I do not want to have a PA managing my stuff rn, no desire to have more people on payroll that I have to delegate stuff to daily)
I might be delusional and wrong, but I want to remain very cash-heavy (u might say hyperliquid) and net short crypto until something fundamentally changes or something fundamentally breaks. Whatever comes first. I bet on the latter.
Doomer in the order books, hyper-optimistic & curious in life. god speed
Good evening gang-gang.
I think the selling is going to accelerate in the coming days/weeks/months. (v unlikely that btc will not struggle again if/when stonks finally start to slide).
imo at one point, you will look back and wonder why you didn't sell in may & walk away like you said you would.
I genuinely think sol to 50$, eth has the good old 1500$ on-chain liq cluster that could cause a cascade to idk 900$? btc probz below 50k when the time comes in the coming months. (unless saylor and strc/mstr actually start to offload more aggressively, then I can see the usual -70% happening, which would get us sub 40k)
I inherently dislike being a doomer, but for the past few months, I have been struggling to allocate capital into anything for longer than a few weeks.
Also sold most of my alternative assets, and boy do I feel light. (big thank u as usual to @cryptoaladeen)
I really thought (like so many others) that the collecting game shall make me feel a certain type of way. For me personally, more real estate, more cars, more everything led to more emails about car insurance, more annoying tasks related to tenancies, unlimited random bills and a serious amount of mental clutter. (No, I do not want to have a PA managing my stuff rn, no desire to have more people on payroll that I have to delegate stuff to daily)
I might be delusional and wrong, but I want to remain very cash-heavy (u might say hyperliquid) and net short crypto until something fundamentally changes or something fundamentally breaks. Whatever comes first. I bet on the latter.
Doomer in the order books, hyper-optimistic & curious in life. god speed
The finest hour has passed imo.
Saylor temporarily out of bullets, the clarity act catalyst couldn't even sustain a 2% pump for a few days, astrology says meh, seasonality says doom, tensions rising in the ME; who is left to buy our coins in a world that's facing serious issues?
alts never stood a chance.
I think the big cleanse is on the horizon, hopefully, after that we get an industry-wide renaissance. (unsure if the AI-related defi hacks will continue, it all kinda scares me, and I'm not smart enough to assess the risks properly)
me thinks alts are about to wake up and rally pretty hard, unfortunately that rally will likely be the kiss of death for risk assets broadly.
Get in, get out, log off, enjoy summer xo
The finest hour has passed imo.
Saylor temporarily out of bullets, the clarity act catalyst couldn't even sustain a 2% pump for a few days, astrology says meh, seasonality says doom, tensions rising in the ME; who is left to buy our coins in a world that's facing serious issues?
a bullโs finest hour is the one before the bang.
stars aligning, crypto bill decision, new fed chair, tensions rising in the ME again.
If you havent had the guts to be long past weeks, imo not the moment to fomo into the last leg before a potential disastrous summer.