John Hesler

Underdog looking to help others succeed. Not financial advice — for entertainment and educational purposes only.

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

⚡️The biggest wealth transfer of the decade is here. Want to be a part of it?

Most people will miss it.
Not because they’re stupid.
But because they’re addicted to comfort.

The crash won’t send a memo.
It will start slowly…
(It already has.)
The news will say “no one saw this coming.”
But that’s an unintentional lie.
Some of us have been watching every signal for months.

We don’t scream.
We position.
While others chase hype, we study VIX curves, options flow, and trap signals.
We understand how institutions offload risk in silence.
Because we’re not here for dopamine.
We’re here for generational opportunity.

When volatility spikes, most will panic.
But a few will be ready:
With long-dated asymmetric trades

With volatility hedges already on
With cash to buy what others are forced to sell

With a calm mind trained for chaos
This isn’t about fear.
This is about leverage.

The biggest wealth transfer of the decade is already happening.
The question is whether you're on the right side of it.
Position wisely.
Act quietly.
Play for legacy.
#WealthTransfer #MacroTrading #SmartMoneyMoves #MarketCrash2025 #VolatilityStrategy #VIX #AsymmetricRisk #CapitalPreservation #GenerationalWealth #TraderMindset #LongVol #OptionTrading #HedgeFundMindset
#Volmageddon #PositionDontPanic
#PlayForLegacy #QuietMoney #CrashProof

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

I hate the part of me that cares what people think.

But I’ve learned something:

That part isn’t weak.
It’s ancient.
It evolved to keep me alive.
Way back , if the tribe rejected you, you died.
So the brain wired itself to equate judgment with danger.

But I’m not in danger now.
The world has changed — and so must I.
I don’t need to kill that part of me.
I need to constantly retrain it.

Now, when it shows up —
when I feel that panic over being misunderstood or disliked —
I pause and say:

“I see you. But I’m not that kid anymore.”

That’s how you lead your life.
Not by pretending not to care.
But by caring selectively —
choosing whose voice matters, and walking forward anyway.
#InnerWork #SelfMastery #MindsetShift #EmotionalResilience #PersonalGrowth #HealingJourney

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

#OrderFlow #TapeReading #StockMarket #NVDA #MarketMakers
#LiquidityMatters #TradingPsychology #SmartMoney #PriceAction
#OptionsFlow #EarningsSeason #MarketMechanics #VolumeProfile
#RetailTraders #Fintwit #NVDA #stockmarketcrash

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

📉 VOLMAGEDDON: The Setup for a Market Shock

1/
We believe a volatility eruption is coming — not a maybe, a when.
The signs are everywhere.
And we're positioned with long-dated silver puts targeting 100x+ returns.

This is the full theory, timeline, and strategy:
🧵👇
2/
WHY THIS MATTERS

Everyone’s still playing for a soft landing.
But:

Macro is deteriorating

Tech is stretched

Volatility is asleep

Silver is trading like the bull market will never end

This is classic late-cycle complacency.
3/

STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
SPX has printed a weekly lower high
VIX is at 19.28, VX at 19.85
Brief term structure inversion last week (VIX1 > VIX2) — then reset

Bearish divergences across equity indices

NVDA = the AI iceberg tip

4/

CATALYSTS FOR THE CRACK

Any one of these could trigger the unwind:
NVDA earnings (May 28) — cracks in the AI narrative
Surprise Fed tone shift — market realises no rate cuts are coming
Recession confirmation (jobs, GDP, credit events)
Geopolitical flashpoint — Taiwan, Middle East, or cyberattack

Volatility shock from options market fragility (dealer gamma flip)

It doesn’t need one big blow. Just one domino.

5/

THE PATH AHEAD

We don't need new highs.
The market has already printed the weekly LH on SPX.
If NVDA wobbles or another catalyst hits, SPX can roll fast from here.
We expect:
SPX to fall below 4567
Momentum unwind through 4300 → 3950

Capitulation lows around 3600 possible

VIX spike toward 45+

6/

THE SILVER PLAY

While everyone chases gold…
Silver sits bloated with speculative longs.

If deflationary fears spike, silver could crash from $30 to $10–12.
That’s why we’re positioned with long-dated, deep OTM puts for pennies.

Asymmetric bets. Minimal risk. Massive upside.

7/
TIMELINE
May 28 → NVDA earnings
June–August → Volatility accelerates

Q3–Q4 → Silver collapse completes as fear peaks

We’ve entered the window.
Now it's about alignment, not prediction.

8/

OUR POSITIONING
🔻 SPX puts (June, July, August)
⚡ VIX calls (August/September — entered under VIX 20)
🥈 Silver puts (October 2025, Jan/May 2026 expiry)

We’re already in — with a layered, high-convexity structure.

Some of these silver positions cost less than $0.04 per contract.

9/

THE BIG PICTURE

Volmageddon isn't about panic.
It's about recognising cycles and being prepared while others sleep.

We're not calling for the end of the world.
Just the end of a delusion.

The reset is coming. And we're ready.

#Volmageddon

#MarketCrash

#MacroTrading

#Volatility

#SPX

#VIX

#Silver

#SilverCrash

#OptionsTrading

#AsymmetricBets

#FinTwit

#TradingView

#ChartAnalysis

#RiskManagement

#OptionsFlow

#BearMarket

#SP500

#TechBubble

#NVDA

#RecessionWatch

#MacroThesis

#Inflation

#Deflation

#FederalReserve

#AIbubble

#LongVol

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

#StockMarketCrash

#Recession

#MarketCrash

#EconomicCollapse

#CrashComing

#BearMarket

#SellOff

#RiskOff

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

🚨 Crash Watch 2025 – Timing the Storm 🚨

We’re tracking high-conviction zones for the next volatility explosion as markets coil post-spike:

🗓️ Crash Probability Windows

Apr 15–30: 🎯 65% — SPY lower high? VIX reload?

Apr 30 (FOMC): 80% — Hawkish tone = volatility detonation

May 1–15: 75% — Post-Fed/CPI fallout window

May–June: 90% — Prime for crash leg 2 (SPY -15% / VIX 50+)

July–Aug: 55% — If market holds bounce

Q4: 80% — Delayed crash if inflation or credit breaks

🔥 We’re not prepping for a crash — we’re already in it.

#SPY #VIX #Crash2025 #Volatility #Macro #FOMC #Gold #Silver $SPY $VIX

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

🎯 Estimated Probability of Success: 78–83%

If we bounce into $263–$267 and reject with structure — this becomes a top-tier swing short with clean risk control.

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

📉 TSLA Trade Plan – Post-Q1 Collapse

Tesla missed Q1 deliveries by 50,000 units.
Stock tanked to $253 after hours — but now isn’t the time to chase. It’s time to trap the trap.

⚙️ Trade Setup: Short the Bounce

TSLA already dumped.

Now we wait for the bounce — and fade it.
🎯 Ideal Short Zone: $263–$267
Gap fill + FVG

Previous support now resistance

Everyone trying to buy the dip = trap fuel
🚨 Confirmation Needed:
15m LH

Bearish engulf or CHoCH

Weak volume on bounce = go time
🔫 Trade Plan
Entry: $263–$267 (on 15m structure failure)
Stop: $271
TP1: $255
TP2: $248
TP3: $235

R:R: 3x–5x depending on execution
🧠 Context
TSLA down 13% YoY on deliveries

Already -35% YTD

Just rejected from major weekly supply ($285)
Q1 miss = fundamental + technical alignment for downside

No longs unless $271 is reclaimed.

(Not trading advice. Entertainment only)
#TSLA #ShortSetup #Stocks #EV #MacroTrading #TeslaCrash #TradePlan #SwingShort #FOMC #markets

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

Tesla Collapses After Hours — This Isn’t Just a Dip. It’s a Breakdown.

TSLA just reported Q1 deliveries down 13% YoY — the worst drop in years.

Wall Street expected 385,000 units.
Tesla delivered only 336,681.

The stock?
🚨 Down to $256 after hours — a 5%+ dump right into key support.

This isn’t a pullback. It’s a fundamental failure.

Tesla is:
Missing growth targets in a crowded EV market
Dealing with brand damage and public backlash

Rejected perfectly from the $285 weekly supply zone
Already -35% YTD, and this may be just the beginning

📉 A break of $255–$263 opens the door to:
➡️ $248
➡️ $235
➡️ Even $217 (weekly demand zone)

This is a textbook lower high + bearish catalyst.
Bulls need a miracle. Bears? Just need patience.

#TSLA #Tesla #Stocks #CrashIncoming #ShortOpportunity #Trading #Markets

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

PROFIT TARGET HIT (out of hrs)

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

TSLA Short Watch (April 2025)
1/ TSLA is pushing into the $274–$280 zone — a potential Lower High under the $292 swing high.

This zone aligns with:

Daily supply
Fib 0.618 retracement (from $292 → $259)
Prior structure
2/ ✅ Structure so far:

Swing High: $292
Swing Low: $259
Current price: $269–$272 (after-hours)
No confirmed divergence yet on 1H, 4H, or Daily — but watching for it to form if price pushes above $274 and RSI/MACD flatten.

3/ What I need to see:

Price into $274–$280
Rejection candle on 4H or 1H
CHoCH or BOS
Volume fading on green, picking up on red
Divergence forming on 1H or 4H
4/ 🎯 Trade Setup

Entry: $274–$280 (on rejection)
SL: Above $292
TP1: $259
TP2: $252
TP3: $240
TP4: $218
⚠️ No trade unless price shows weakness and momentum fades. Watching closely.

#TSLA $TSLA #Tesla #Trading #PriceAction #ShortSetup

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

Profit Target HIT

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

Bearish on BTC — Watching for 4H Lower High

1/ BTC is approaching $84.9k–$85.2k, a key 4H supply zone.
This is where I’m watching for a Lower High (LH) to form on the 4-hour chart.

2/ 🔹 Structure:

Last Swing High (4H): $88.9k

Swing Low: $81.6k
Price now rallying back into resistance = potential LH zone

3/ 🔻 Short Setup (if rejection confirms):
Entry: $84.9k–$85.2k

SL: Above $86.2k
TP1: $82.7k
TP2: $81.6k
TP3: $79k
Trigger: 4H or 1H CHoCH, bearish engulfing, fading volume

4/ ✅ Bias: Bearish
No confirmation = no trade.
Let buyers overextend — then fade the move.
⚠️ Not financial advice — for entertainment and education only.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BTCUSD $BTC #PriceAction

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

TSLA may push up to around 283 to put in a LH on the 4hr then should role over

[John Hesler @underdogtrading]

Look for a Pullback now to put in a HL on the 4hr around the 82500 mark