VirtualBacon

Crypto and macro in plain English. Every day: the levels I am watching and the positions I actually hold. No hype. Livestreams Mon-Fri.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

My Q4 trade plan for November and December

The dip to buy is right now. #Bitcoin dropped to $76.3K this week, right onto the 50 week SMA. I think this is the cheapest price Bitcoin will trade at for the rest of this bull run.

Here's why.

Bitcoin confirmed the bull run two months ago, when it closed a week back above the bull market support band. The band is the zone between two lines on the weekly chart:
The 50 week SMA, the bottom, about $76K
The 50 week EMA, the top, about $78.6K

In a bull run, Bitcoin holds above this band on the weekly chart. The 50 week SMA is the floor, and price is sitting on it right now.

So I'm buying today. Not after months of sideways trading, and not lower. The bottom of this correction should be in this month, most likely right after the midterm elections on Nov 3.

When I'm wrong: a weekly close below the 50 week SMA, about $76K right now.

A daily wick down below $76K, a quick drop that snaps back, could still happen next week, right after the midterms. That's a typical liquidity hunt: price dips to where a lot of traders have money in borrowed bets and automatic sell orders, just under $76K, and forces them out. All it takes is a weekly close back above the 50 week SMA, and the bull run is still intact. If that quick drop happens, I buy it too. That's the window: today, and maybe next week.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@oneminvin lol fair. I start buying there and keep going down to 64.5K, so I'm planning to get a bit wet

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

If I were buying Bitcoin in pieces right now, my range would be 71.5K down to 64.5K over the next 70 days or so, for an average around 68K.

68K is roughly Bitcoin's average price over the last four years. That's about as cheap as it gets.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@MindMathMoney yeah the line keeps moving and it's no floor. Spreading buys from 71.5K down to 64.5K over about 70 days is how I deal with that

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@King_James_Kim Yeah, and this week's inflation numbers already started tipping it. FedWatch leans toward a January hike now, so that move is already under way

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

December's Fed hike is for sure, so markets already expect it. The meeting that matters for #Bitcoin now is January.

On Wednesday it was still a toss-up, about 50/50, and a 50/50 can't be priced in. Whatever tips it to 80/20 moves the market. That's what I'm watching

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

If I can't convince you to be bullish on #Bitcoin, I'll just laugh with you

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

Stocks have been easy mode for three years because of AI. That doesn't make them low risk. Crypto is the one that already corrected and went sideways, and that's where the upside is now.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@KobeissiLetter If he actually comes back, the main reason for this AI selloff goes away. Bitcoin has been trading with the AI stocks all month, so I'm watching this one closely

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@Milonsa87650356 I don't think so. This looks like a sideways stretch to me, and I think the next leg of the bull run comes early next year

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

My Q4 trade plan for November and December

The dip to buy is right now. #Bitcoin dropped to $76.3K this week, right onto the 50 week SMA. I think this is the cheapest price Bitcoin will trade at for the rest of this bull run.

Here's why.

Bitcoin confirmed the bull run two months ago, when it closed a week back above the bull market support band. The band is the zone between two lines on the weekly chart:
The 50 week SMA, the bottom, about $76K
The 50 week EMA, the top, about $78.6K

In a bull run, Bitcoin holds above this band on the weekly chart. The 50 week SMA is the floor, and price is sitting on it right now.

So I'm buying today. Not after months of sideways trading, and not lower. The bottom of this correction should be in this month, most likely right after the midterm elections on Nov 3.

When I'm wrong: a weekly close below the 50 week SMA, about $76K right now.

A daily wick down below $76K, a quick drop that snaps back, could still happen next week, right after the midterms. That's a typical liquidity hunt: price dips to where a lot of traders have money in borrowed bets and automatic sell orders, just under $76K, and forces them out. All it takes is a weekly close back above the 50 week SMA, and the bull run is still intact. If that quick drop happens, I buy it too. That's the window: today, and maybe next week.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@TedPillows That list is why I want at least half of a crypto bag in Bitcoin. Even after this drop, it's the only one on there still above where it started

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@chai_lens Fair catch. The 50/50 was from Wednesday's stream. After this week's inflation numbers, CME FedWatch now leans toward another hike in January too, so the market's moving that way

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@AshCrypto Part of that is Nvidia. Bitcoin has been trading with the AI stocks, and Nvidia just lost its CEO. Once the chip selling stops, I think Bitcoin catches up with it

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

5/x So the business didn't change, and the street wants the AI trade up into next week's IPO. That's why I'm not panicking on #Bitcoin over this.

Are you buying the Nvidia dip, or waiting for Nvidia's earnings on Tuesday?

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

Nvidia without Jensen Huang as CEO is headed for its longest weekly losing streak since 2012.

I think it's a buying opportunity on Nvidia, and not a reason to panic on #Bitcoin. Here's why🧵👇

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

4/x What it means for #Bitcoin. The AI selloff is the main risk that's been dragging Bitcoin down.

So if you're panicking on Bitcoin because of Nvidia, I'd say don't, because I think Nvidia bounces back.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@TheBlockCo 65K sits right inside the range I laid out on stream today, 64K to 71K. I'm only adding on spot inside that range, no leverage

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

OpenAI's agents still pay with a Visa, Mastercard or Amex card.

A day earlier, Lightning Labs released a tool that lets AI agents pay in Bitcoin with no card and no account.

That's good for Bitcoin. Software is starting to spend money, and Bitcoin is already one way it can pay.
https://t.co/6v7PifNutN

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: OpenAI launches ChatGPT Wallet, allowing its AI agents to buy things for users.