BREAKING: Trump's odds of attending the NBA Finals are crashing on Polymarket.
Many traders think the latest Israel-Iran escalation could lead Trump to cancel his appearance.
We're excited to announce our Taker Rebate Program.
Get rebated up to 50% of all trading fees on Polymarket, earn level-up cash bonuses, & become eligible for amplified future rewards.
Goes live next week.
Learn more: https://t.co/4usun0s3V0
Announced 50c Crypto Fees: 1.8%
Actual 50c Crypto Fees: 3.6%
Polymarket have been completely silent about it. Ask them about it and you get ignored. Heard people get banned in Discord for mentioning it
What is greater: Polymarket provides free access to the Pyth Pro version API data
You could have spent $120,000 a year
But now it costs total $0 if you're a Polymarket trader
I guess there're over 1k articles on how to build your trading bot
Or you can hire a quant engineer with the funds you just saved (and this will be better)
How a non‑meteorologist managed to turn 92k → 1.1M on the weather in London?
$1.11M from one position, this is a truly unprecedented case
> I went through his wallet and here's what Hans323 does:
• Polymarket has weather contracts, high temp in NYC tomorrow, London, Chicago, hundreds of cities
• The crowd prices these by feel, weather models like ECMWF and GFS price them with math
The models are right 85-90% of the time, the crowd regularly sits at 15-40% on the same outcome
Hans323 reads the model, finds where the crowd is off, and enters at 2-8 cents per share
This is Taleb's barbell on Polymarket, lose small on most entries, collect 10-50x when the "unlikely" hits
Broke this down with two more strategies in the article below ➦
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: “I’m so thankful to have the best young core in the league!”
Victor Wembanyama: “Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper makes life so easy. So does being 8 foot 5.”
Luka Doncic subplot:
This trader hacked weather markets and made $80K in a month.
I bet you didn't know this way of doing it was even possible.
The strategy looks simple: buy every YES outcome cheap, so any resolution brings profit.
But here's the catch. Look at the chart of any individual outcome - they all start at 10-20 cents. He got in at 5.
But how?
He never bought outcomes individually. He used the Split function.
Here is how it works:
Split = $1 USDC -> 1 YES token + 1 NO token for a single outcome. He splits the most probable outcomes the second a new market opens. No liquidity yet. Spreads are massive. That's the window.
In illiquid markets, NO tokens on unlikely outcomes trade way above fair value because nobody is there to push the price down. He sells NO at inflated prices while the spread is still wide. What's left is YES at an effective cost of 5 cents.
By the time the market fills up with liquidity and spreads tighten - he's already in.
One outcome resolves YES = full payout. The obviously wrong outcomes (the ones the weather forecast rules out) he merges back. 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 USDC. No order book and slippage. Dead capital recycled instantly.
Three cities a day. Same script. Every day.
The entire thing can be automated. Ask Claude to build a bot that monitors new weather markets, splits on open, sells NO through the contract, and merges the losers. The logic fits in under 100 lines.
The crowd doesn't know Split exists. He built an entire edge around a function hidden in the contract.
Profile link > https://t.co/H6pdeQHGNN
Fast copy tradig bot > https://t.co/osgWasyImn
The new fees on @Polymarket are way too high and completely destroys the utility of the exchange for takers.
As a high volume arber I would have paid 104k in fees just in the last 3 months under the current system 💀
They are also very hard to calculate and very hidden. Poly used to be great, but now there are plenty of better places to bet on sports now.
What a shame 😢
Seems the @Polymarket exploit of cancelling orders is being used not just to manipulate the order books but also for directly stealing money and in one of the markets with more fees, the crypto up/down.
We're excited to announce we're expanding the release of Polymarket's Referral Program from private beta to all traders with >$10k in volume
You will now be eligible for rewards proportionate to the trading volume of all new users you refer
Get started:
https://t.co/uJhBnhMJub