The Global-Macro Strategy Report

CEO
COMEX Floor Trader '80s
Lehman & Prudential Securities '90s
PM Moore Capital
CNBC Regular 1990-2015
Series 3 CTA
Podcast: Money, Markets & New Age Investing

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

Get the FULL 40-page dissection of the MIND-BLOWING PPI data released last week and the reaction in expectations for FOMC policy, the Yield Curve, US-EU Bond Yield Spreads, the USD, the CNY, GOLD and Gold priced in CNY
EMAIL me FREE (one time) copy > [email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@adamfrancisco_ PURE IGNORANCE DEFINED ...
... this lobotomized woman has no clue !!!
And think barking in your face is a fair debate of the facts. Literally, mentally deranged !!!

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@catturd2 PURE IGNORANCE DEFINED ...

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@PeterGrandich I can't comment on your posts, so here's my message, speaking to the Taylor today about both the Boca and Quebec conferences, of course I'd want to accompany you to the game if I do commit to Quebec, I'll pack my Messier jersey !!!! ROFL #notkidding ... I can get us a suite at the Bell Centre, though you might know the same person I'm thinking of, in Montreal !!! Maybe a Ken Dryden jersey will be more appropriate, for multiple reasons, HAHA ... I did always love him when I was kid !!!

[Peter Grandich @PeterGrandich]

Awaiting full details as a potential special addition to the Speaker line-up is being worked out but I'm definitely going. This event is being run by @mumme_ben

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

UNREAL WIN ...
... the #5 car @KyleLarsonRacin goes from FIRST to ELEVENTH and back to FIRST, ALL on the LAST LAP and a half ... to WIN at the famed @TALLADEGA Super Speedway, one of the very few NASCAR tracks still on the list for me and my Son to visit, we've been nearly every other major track ... Larson came out of NOWHERE on the FINAL TURN, after dropping out of the draft ... INCREDIBLE tenacity !!!

[NASCAR @NASCAR]

KYLE LARSON WINS AT TALLADEGA IN THRILLING FASHION!!

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

YES ... well done ... on the field, and OFF !!!!
I said it immediately, HARBAUGH was THE BEST possible hire, hands down, and now JJ McCarthy is winning FANS too !!! ... including me !!!

[New York Giants @Giants]

🗣️ PLAY RESILIENT

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

THIS is frigging cool ...
... TEAM baby, this team is about THE TEAM !!!
THIS is John Harbaugh's TEAM, and JJ McCarthy's play got him the "game ball", while he speech was INSPIRING !!!
@Giants @camskattebo5 @AdamSchefter

[NFL @NFL]

this is so wholesome 💙 @Giants

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

I feel for my buddy @PeterGrandich as a we are both lifelong Giants AND Jets fans ... I too have rooted for both teams since I was a kid, cause they NEVER played one another back in the day, and I spent two summers in the @RealJoeNamath football camp as a teenager, QB and WR ... Joe personally coached me, and I was there at the Yale Bowl as season ticket holder of BOTH teams at one point, when Joe bootlegged around the Giants defense to win a preseason game in the most unlikely way ... I was at the Meadowlands when Ken O'Brien led us to the playoffs, and @joe_klecko was a DOMINANT FORCE in football !!!

I feel MOST for both Joe and Joe, along with Peter ... and the Klecko Watch Party in NJ yesterday, organized by the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, to benefit local charities.

The Giants have hope with Jim Harbaugh, the best possible hire for the G-Men, who now have a core team, especially on offense, while the Jets have little ... and though I really did love the hiring of Aaron Glen, the clock started ticking on his tenure, which is now, suddenly, at risk already, after yesterday's EMBARRASSING HOME FIELD LOSS to the WINLESS and HAPLESS Dolphins (whom I'd love to see as a winning team, as it would benefit Sunday Funday across all of South Florida, my now hometown team)
@nyjets @MiamiDolphins

J-E-T-S ... JETS JETS JETS !!!!
Even Fireman Ed left the building !!!

[Peter Grandich @PeterGrandich]

Here's Dave yesterday leaving the game. He aged 50 years since they last made the playoffs.

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

HAHA ... priceless !!!!!!

[Leah @yurovss]

fucking insane hot mic

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@Buttercup7313 @nntaleb smart guy ... worth reading anything he's written !!!
... share a plane ride with him years ago, a legend !!!

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

Get the FULL 40-page dissection of the MIND-BLOWING PPI data released last week and the reaction in expectations for FOMC policy, the Yield Curve, US-EU Bond Yield Spreads, the USD, the CNY, GOLD and Gold priced in CNY
EMAIL me FREE (one time) copy > [email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@GuyJohnsonTV @annaedwardsnews Get the FULL 40-page dissection of the MIND-BLOWING PPI data released last week and the reaction in expectations for FOMC policy, the Yield Curve, US-EU Bond Yield Spreads, the USD, the CNY, GOLD and Gold priced in CNY
EMAIL me FREE (one time) copy > [email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@GuyJohnsonTV @annaedwardsnews
YES !!!!
Guy just noted something HUGE, that FEW are talking about, and this is why you and Anna (who made a good point as well, about economists) stand above the crowd, not only on Financial TV, but top of the class among your peers on Bloomberg ...

... inflation's impact on PEOPLE is CUMULATIVE, and inflation INDEXES (around the world, and specifically in the US) are (nearly) ALL at RECORD HIGHS, and rise nearly EVERY MONTH.

I am publishing a piece today on US Producer Price Indexes, specifically how Final Demand Consumer Goods and Intermediate Demand Consumer Goods AND Service indexes have broken out to the upside and the indexes in most cases reaching new ALL TIME HIGHS. Moreover, they are posting year-year rates of change FAR above correlated Consumer Price Indexes.

In the US PPI is set to LEAD CPI to another upside acceleration, and those economists (AND THE FED) that are projecting a sharp decline in the inflation rate are MISSING THE CORRELATIONS and FAILING to dig deeper into the data and relationships.

See the charts below, (I will be adding text to these charts for this morning's US publishing schedule) and thus I really honed in on your comments in the last half hour ...

... you are both SPOT ON, and onto something few are talking about, and as always, better than ANYONE on Bloomberg, you are well ahead of the curve, when you note that BOTH politicians AND economist are MISSING a MOST IMPORTANT "nuance", but you guys NAILED IT !!!

This is why "Opening Trade" is one of the VERY FEW financial TV shows I watch anymore, as it has become more of a rah-rah cheerleading campaign celebrating perma-bull markets in stocks during US hours, more so on your competitors, but I've seen it permeate Bloomberg's US morning coverage as well.

Stay true, I'm a big fan who has FOUR DECADES in the trenches, with DOZENS of prescient market calls, 25 years on CNBC and FOX Business (I no longer watch those channels, strictly Bloomberg for me now). I have a stellar pedigree, and a super-solid track record, having worked on the floor, at major brokerage house, investment banks, and hedge funds, and why I have clients such as Citadel and JP Morgan (on my own since 1998) to name two that I don't have non-disclosure agreements with.

(And I'm a humble guy too !!! LOL), seriously.

My goal now is to HELP AVERAGE INVESTORS protect and expand the purchasing power of their wealth and income ... against omnipresent debasement of paper currencies (AKA inflation) ... which, in the US and EU is ONLY GOING TO INTENSIFY, thanks to onerous debt !!!

Stocks WILL RISE when the USD and EUR are debased again, but this time they WILL NOT KEEP PACE with inflation, thus diversity into commodities, bonds and currencies is a MUST for average investors, if they want to stay "whole".

I'd happy to send over the report, shoot me an email if you'd like to see it, gives context and texture to what you're saying !!!
@BloombergTV
@markets
@bsurveillance

[email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

@Buttercup7313 Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated and never taken for granted !!! 😎🤓

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

Medication Time Gentlemen, Medication Time !!
Acceleration Time Gentlemen, Acceleration Time !!!

Get my IN-DEPTH data-dissection (CPI). At +3.7% inflation lowers the "real" FF Rate to a level that is NEUTRAL, if not overtly INFLATION FRIENDLY
EMAIL: [email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

Medication Time Gentlemen, Medication Time !!
Acceleration Time Gentlemen, Acceleration Time !!!
Get my IN-DEPTH data-dissection (CPI). At +3.7% inflation lowers the "real" FF Rate to a level that is NEUTRAL, if not overtly INFLATION FRIENDLY
EMAIL: [email protected]

[The Global-Macro Strategy Report @WeldonLIVE]

Seemed to be appropriate 2am wake-up call MUSIC, and MORE pertinent NOW as the US election approaches, and I sit here writing the text that will come with a DEEP DIVE into the innards of the CPI report, which revealed broadening and ACCELERATING inflation, especially when combined with Import data with rising Prices for Finished Goods, which was ALSO see in the PPI data, showing a +7.4% yr-yr inflation in Consumer Goods for Final Demand !!

Sio the simple math using R-Star (plus 50bp added to Powell's 2018 creation, for the pandemic effect) when we compare the 4% top-end FF Target Range, and 3.7% All-Items CPI inflation rate ... FOMC rate policy is, at best, NEUTRAL ... in fact, the "real" FF Rate using the bottom of the FOMC's target range is a whopping ...
... 0.05%

Moreover, when you throw in "stealth QE", buying SHORT-TERM T-Bills from the Treasury, as Bessent moves to shorten duration ... Fed's Balance Sheet expanding again, NOTABLY SO ... as Warsh has talked-the-talk but is failing to walk-the-walk ... IF ... IF ... IF .. he is serious when he invokes Paul Volcker, the guy who jacked rates to as high as 20%, and KILLED inflation

AND ... M-2 Money Supply is running HOT, at +5.7% year-year, with a med-term acceleration to +7.5% annualized !!!!

MMMmmmm, a 4% FF rate is virtually NOTHING, compared to ANY other macro-monetary data point.

NOTE, importantly note ... Paul Volcker had a Treasury with virtually ZERO "real" PUBLIC DEBT, now over $40 trillion.

THEY KNOW what's coming next, it permeates their own data and surveys ... NEGATIVE "real" Wages, (-) 2.4% year-year for those at the lowest income levels, who are getting CRUSHED already, by inflation ... no real income gains (outside of stock, which is why they are doing this, to keep demand for credit from sending Bond yields and Credit Spreads (a 2008 "ghost") sky-rocketing.

Credit Card debt MORE than "covers" Personal Savings, which sits at low levels, historically, versus Personal Disposable Income, which just posted DEFLATION when excluding "Transfer Payments", again revealing the rise in the number of people receiving entitlements (SS, Medicare) ... or ... who are increasingly "living off of the government (AKA the US taxpayer)

"They" KNOW that they are facing what I have termed "The Ultimate Policy Conundrum" ... and will, in my view, be FORCED to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation to protect Consumer final demand, lest we have sub-par growth rates that fail to allow DEBT SERVICING ... yes, the rat wheel is ALREADY SPINNING, and the Fed-Treasury appear to be giving us clear-cut "tells" that Warsh will talk-the-talk, but cannot walk-the-walk when it comes to DEFEATING INFLATION with Fed policy.

#FOMC
#FederalReserve
#Inflation
#Bonds
#Debt
#Savings
#kevinwarsh
#scottbessent

@RATMofficial
@BloombergTV
@SullyCNBC
@LizClaman
@ClamanCountdown
@PowerLunch
@HalftimeReport
@TheJudgeCNBC
@lisaabramowicz1
@RomaineBostick
@GuyJohnsonTV