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🚨LIKE IF TAILING🚨

Mackenzie Gore u3.85 ERA / o8.5 Wins

Writeup📝

Mackenzie Gore has been a reliable innings eater for the Nats for the past few seasons, ever since his acquisition from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal. He had elite prospect pedigree, but was never able to successfully ascend to ace status for Washington. I believe that will change in 2025, for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, Gore's underlying metrics are all solid, with above average whiff rates on his breaking balls and a high velo, high extension fastball that should, in theory, play well in his pitch mix. However, his fastball has been a weakness, especially in the warmer, summer months of DC when it turns into batting practice. Gore began last season well, with a 2.91 ERA in April and May, but struggled mightily in the warmer months of the year, putting up a 6.36 ERA in June and July.

Now an increase in offense is expected as the temperature increases, but a lot of that damage was due to Gore’s struggle with giving up free base runners. He led the Nats in walks, HBPs, and wild pitches in 2024, and his K/9 dipped severely in the summer while his BB/9 ballooned.

If Gore would be able to fix that control issue, it would be natural to assume he could reduce traffic on the basepaths and as such, his ERA. Gore has mentioned how that loss of control and lack of consistency on the mound has been related to his tendency to fall behind in counts. This also contributes to his struggles because of his pitch usage when behind in counts. When he’s behind in the count, he relies heavily on his fastball to get out of it, throwing it 65.5% of the time. Unfortunately, his fastball just doesn’t induce many swings and misses and gets hit for damage. If he can get ahead in counts, he can rely more on his breaking stuff, which grades out well across the board. Luckily, he’s been outspoken this Spring about addressing this issue.

According to Gore and his manager Davey Martinez, he's been spending the Spring focusing on getting ahead in counts, and has done so with success, with a 2.72 ERA and nearly 10 K/9 so far in Spring Training. His fastball has also shown some signs of improvement over the last few seasons, with a nice increase in Stuff+ from 2023 to 2024, going from 112 to 124. He also increased velocity and IVB on the pitch, which is a great sign for fastballs as more perceived rise can lead to more whiffs. I’m not expecting his fastball to improve by a large margin, but the signs of improvement over last offseason give me hope he will continue retooling and refining it.

Another big sign of a possible breakout season in the cards for Gore is the run he ended the last season on. He threw some elite innings over 5 starts in September, with a 1.26 ERA and 11 K/9. This is enough to show me that his summer struggles are not fatigue-related, rather a deeper underlying issue that can be fixed. The biggest difference was his pitch mix, as he began to throw his curveball at a higher rate.

It's almost uncanny how well his curveball usage matches up with his K/9 rates month-to-month, and it's not a coincidence. His curveball was his best pitch last season, garnering a 23.5% PutAway%, 34% whiff rate while inducing a 55% ground ball rate when contacted with. These stats align with the pitch value metrics, as it was his only pitch to provide positive value across 2024, with a 3.6 pVAL and 0.9 pVAL/C (per 100 pitches). I have to imagine that the Nationals’ coaching staff has identified this and will encourage more use of his curveball, which should lead to a strong season from Gore.

I like betting u3.85 ERA here, as his FIP/xFIP numbers show signs of regression already, alongside his extremely unlucky .341 BABIP due to come back down. Rate stats are also less vulnerable to injuries and other factors, which makes them slightly more reliable future bets. o8.5 Wins is also a good line since, like most counting stat futures, it is already discounted🧵🧵

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