$BTC is currently in the middle of nowhere.
We need a clear trigger: either a reclaim of resistance or a liquidity sweep toward 74K.
Until then, there is no real edge. Staying out is also a position.
#BTC 1D thoughts
Lots of sideways price action lately, overall still following a bullish path. Tons of liquidity has formed towards the downside, but often times in history price can easily rally away without taking the lows. In hindsight, whether the lows get swept or not, people will say it was obvious.
In my case, I'm still holding swing longs, and preparing for 2 different scenarios. Price can easily rally from here, still on strong support (separate weekly chart) and overall the daily candlestick structure is bullish.
But if the lows get swept, we dip into monthly support, and if market gives entry around $60k-$61k I will likely re-long with larger size and even more conviction.
$btc
Hourly range broken out ✅ Daily first main target loading ⌛️ + small educational rant
The range we called a week+ ago has now resolved and broken out towards the expected direction.
It was 8 long days of watching bears farm engagement of how "they were right" and "how longs were wrong" (just filter the X timeline on to the time of both lows placed and you see the funny posts), here encircled in green.
Yet in reality, the respective followers likely sell at the worst time.
Not to call them out, not to be bitter. This isn't "bulls vs bears" or "right vs wrong". All power and respect to all market participants. To be frank, this is how the market works.
But a think a little bit of fairness is allowed because engagement farmers make themselves often look good and are often praised because they post during peak emotional times, but most posts come out and are repeated heavily only when lows are reached.
That's why they suddenly posted 10+ times when lows were reached, yet were mostly silent before the move.
Meanwhile, the they put out some hedged posts where calls are made for "rallies coming next in July", justify it with 1 data point that fits their bias, and they are ready to farm again.
Of course, if we would head lower, they would never speak about that call anymore, it's just to hedge their opinion, which they will continuously talk about "I told you" once price does go up.
In essence, lots of words, lots of chatter, but ever wondered why they never share a single entry or exit in the process, playing it very safe?
Do you see what I mean with engagement farming/trying to be right versus making money?
We have seen it at 60k in Feb, and at 60k in June, both times, calling for 50k and lower, we still haven't seen the level yet.
It's not necessarily the call for the level that's wrong, it could very well happen. It's just the sheer timing, where the engagement posts happened at 60k. Bear posts at the time, yet they were the best times to go long instead.
It's the hedge fund trading floor mania repeating itself on social media platforms at large.
So instead of going lower, the range formed (giving time to farm engagement and build sentiment), and then, went the classical other way of the sentiment, towards my daily first main target area.
Still some ways to go, but I do think we get there.
The range ends, and also the ranting ends, for which I apologize. But just wanted to highlight this as educational material, as this was a great opportunity with the extent of time we ranged, exposing a little bit the reality of markets.
$BTC
Price is at 70.7k, starting to expect sub 65k, ideally sub 63k from here (reminder to not long up here)
Alright nice move up. Last posts, I talked about how I am bullish overall, but how I am still waiting for 65k (midrange) and more ideally 63k before going long with bigger size again as well as closing the final bits of these shorts.
Conviction on the move down isn't all too high because we still see a large crowd of shorts pile in per last post at 69k.
With this push though, enough leverage (upper tens of millions) is finally cleared and we finally see some large fund aggression trying to rotate it back down.
Whether this is the cue to go to 65k and below again, I'm not fully confident, not confident enough in it to pull a short, my best level was 73k as we executed.
But I am confident enough to keep holding that exact last short for it to close at those areas of 65/63k and not close those remainders here, as well as remind you clearly to not enter new longs here even if price looks nice and green (also per last post).
Therefore, it's key to simply wait, let price do its thing while it wrecks some final bears out of their shorts here, before likely (IMO) taking a tumble finally.
I'll remain patient for my levels to close these, we are set up for it in ideal sense.
$XVG taking second partial here at 5.2R.
Price is holding .786 on H4, based on the structure if it forms a HL here it may provide a stronger push to the upside.