This account documents my personal journey in options trading and self-discovery. Nothing here is financial advice. Wins, losses, and lessons. Follow along.
I can say that Mizuho’s numbers are not irrational at all — they are actually quite reasonable.
Access Citrini’s institutional report here: https://t.co/H8hJmmRscr
[Exclusive] Samsung Foundry Expected to Return to Profit in Q3 This Year… "Entering Growth Trajectory After Four Years"
Observations are emerging internally that Samsung Electronics' foundry division could succeed in turning a profit as early as the third quarter of this year. Analysts point to improved production volumes of advanced 2nm process nodes and the base die used in high bandwidth memory (HBM) as factors giving momentum to profitability improvement.
According to the industry on the 8th, the timing of the breakeven target that Samsung Electronics' foundry division had set is expected to be moved up to the third quarter of this year, from the originally projected end of this year through next year, on the back of yield improvements and the effect of large order wins. This would mark an earnings recovery roughly four years after the trillion won scale operating losses that began in 2022. There is an assessment that the foundry division, long identified as the Achilles heel of Samsung's semiconductor business, has entered a structural improvement trajectory faster than expected.
First, Samsung Electronics' advanced process is performing better than expected. Samsung Electronics is reported to have raised the yield of its 2nm GAA (gate all around) process to over 60% as of the first quarter of this year. While it still falls short of the 70% level regarded as the benchmark for mass production economics, the industry assesses this as a sufficient level to carry out initial volume production while simultaneously securing new customers. In its first quarter 2026 earnings announcement in April, Samsung Electronics said that "utilization of its advanced process lines has reached maximum levels." Despite the seasonal off peak period, it is understood to have achieved double digit revenue growth compared to the same period a year earlier.
In addition, the customer acquisition activity that has continued since last year is set to convert into full scale revenue in the second half. Samsung Electronics signed a 22.8 trillion won long term supply contract for autonomous driving chips with Tesla in July last year, and plans to begin 2nm mass production of AI5 and AI6 chips at its Taylor plant in Texas, USA, starting in the second half of this year. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also publicly certified Samsung Electronics' contract manufacturing when he unveiled the AI inference dedicated chip "Grok3" during his keynote at "GTC 2026" in March.
The scale of orders is also growing rapidly. Samsung Electronics internally projects that the number of 2nm related orders this year will increase by more than 130% compared to the previous year, and beyond Tesla and NVIDIA, it is expanding the scope of cooperation with multiple big tech firms including Apple and Nintendo. There are also reports that the volume of sixth generation HBM (HBM4) base die has already reached a sold out level.
Cost soundness is also expected to improve as mass production ramp up at the Taylor fab soon reverses the fixed cost structure. The Taylor fab, into which 37 billion dollars (about 54 trillion won) was invested, had been a factor deepening the foundry division's losses by generating enormous construction costs. An official familiar with Samsung Electronics explained that "once mass production gets into full swing in the second half, the calculation shows that the depreciation burden could instead turn into a fixed cost dilution effect, sharply improving the profit and loss structure."
The fact that the advanced process lines of competitor TSMC of Taiwan have effectively entered a saturated state due to a surge in demand for AI accelerators is also working in Samsung Electronics' favor. Some fabless (semiconductor design) firms are actively considering Samsung Electronics as an alternative, and there are observations that AMD is reviewing a dual foundry strategy for a portion of its next generation graphics processing unit (GPU) volumes.
3D DRAM will unlock a whole new dimension (literally) in computer architecture.
It'll be presented at ISCA 2026 later this month.
3 things you should know:
1. Stacking DRAM on compute, allows us to co-design them together just like how it is done with SRAM now.
2. The power numbers are very good 0.3-0.4 pJ/bit (compared to HBM's 3-4 pJ/bit).
3. 3D dram allows you to pull 100K+ lanes into the compute die, unlike 2K lanes in HBM4. Imagine the speed.
I co-authored this paper. It'll be part of the conference proceedings, but I'll write an article on https://t.co/ptIyVDRKiH shortly after.
Container shipping rates are surging amid the Iran War:
The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast jumped +$655, or +20%, over the last week, to ~$3,933, the highest in at least 6 months.
At the same time, the rate from Asia to Northern Europe jumped +$793, or +27%, to ~$3,649.
Since the start of the Iran War, Asia-to-US container rates have surged +109%, and Asia-to-Europe rates are up by more than +50%.
This comes as shipments rerouted around the blocked Strait of Hormuz are causing severe congestion at Southeast Asian transshipment hubs, including Singapore and Malaysia.
On top of this, carriers are charging importers fuel surcharges and shifting costs, while a pickup in demand heading into peak season for booking ocean freight is adding further pressure.
Looking ahead, available shipping capacity is set to shrink further as importers rush to replenish inventories in July and August, which could push rates even higher.
Supply chain pressures are intensifying.
Iran's new missile strikes on Israel raise a larger question:
What if the Iran War is entering a new phase?
For 35 years, the world believed overwhelming military superiority guaranteed political control.
The Iran War is forcing us to reconsider that assumption.
On Prof Pape Substack, my new essay:
The World After Iran
Same garbage every day.
Googl and other have a memory killer.
Impossible. Won’t ever happen. Ever.
War will crash mkt.
War is stunningly bullish.
Iran bombed Israel.
So what. Ukraine and Russia bomb every day
Mkt dove on Friday.
So what sam banked a milly on down day
Data centers will all fail
lol USA backs all ai companys and my burry goes live on only fans to recover money
World doesn’t have power
So what world will create it
News is so fricken bullish.
If your scared go check yourself into a Freddy Kruger asylum
Best mkt in 25 yrs and clown after clown getting massacred.
Good. Is you suck at trading you deserve to be homeless.
Only1sam. And he smoking hot
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just called the idea of AI replacing software engineers "complete nonsense"
"The number of software engineers is actually increasing... if you can hire a software engineer and generate $9 trillion worth of productive work, why wouldn't you want to hire more?
If that line were flat, then obviously people would hire fewer software engineers. But because the output is so incredible, people want to hire more
This is going to show up in our economy somehow, soon. Useful AI has arrived"
" Comparison with six years' schooling at a German authoritarian gymnasium made me clearly realize how superiors an education towards free action and personal responsibility is to one relying on outwards authority and ambition. True democracy is no empty illusion . " - ALBERT EINSTEIN , during his school years at the cantonal school in Aarau , a pretty town 25 miles from Zurich .