Andrea Cerrato

Economist at the @BostonFed | Economics PhD at @UCBerkeley @berkeleyecon | Co-founder at @TortugaThink

Opinions are my own

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

Excited to be on the job market!
➡️My website: https://t.co/3hlhfon2VK
Here is my #JMP: "How Big Is the Big Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of a Large-Scale Regional Development Program"
➡️Full draft: https://t.co/G9jVy5wG1S
A thread for #Econtwitter⬇️
1/10

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

@jasonfurman Thanks!

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

@jasonfurman Are there papers showing that GE effects on revenues did not offset the direct positive impact?

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical.
This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

@EdoardoMecca1 Kolo + Icardi

[Francesco Filippucci @f_filippucci]

Questo weekend è stato un weekend speciale per me e altre 100+ persone: festeggiamo 10 anni di rotta condivisa, in un gruppo con un nome un po’ buffo, @TortugaThink .

[Alberto Cavallo @albertocavallo]

While the USTR tariff calculator cites the findings from Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman & Tang (2021) it is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of 0.25, the implied reciprocal tariffs would come out about four times smaller.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The flood of transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan has been an open secret inside the EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics cracked down on this. Italy did not. These transshipments are a choice. Italy prefers to make money rather than confront Russia...

[Eva Davoine @EvaDavoine]

🚨New working paper🚨
“The Political Costs of Taxation” with
@EnguehardJoseph & @IgorKol52824963

When a state has low capacity and legitimacy, attempts to enforce unfair taxation can fuel social conflict!

Some key findings:
🧵 1/10

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe.

A thread on my Silicon Continent post.
(1/11)

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

New productivity growth numbers consistent with the view that we remain almost exactly on the course that was expected prior to COVID. No evidence of an AI inflection in these data--at least not yet.

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

@albertobisin Grazie Prof!

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

@PorzioTommaso Thanks Tommaso!

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

Thanks for reading, comments are more than welcome!
Many additional details in the paper.
To know more about my research: https://t.co/nO3AJuHgXc

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

Excited to be on the job market!
➡️My website: https://t.co/3hlhfon2VK
Here is my #JMP: "How Big Is the Big Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of a Large-Scale Regional Development Program"
➡️Full draft: https://t.co/G9jVy5wG1S
A thread for #Econtwitter⬇️
1/10

[Andrea Cerrato @_acerrato]

Counterfactuals:
1⃣Fundamentals in the Center-North = South
➡️Smaller crowding-out effects, larger aggregate gains
2⃣Uniform allocation of resources across Italian regions
➡️Larger aggregate gains, even under conservative assumptions
10/10