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[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Real retail sales growth in Q3 suddenly looks weak.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Core retail sales fell in Sep, after strong growth in the 3 months prior.

Better to evaluate it on a 3-month basis (orange), which would look decent except goods inflation is high (gray).

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

The 5 largest U.S. stocks have had divergent buyback policies.
$AMZN: steady diluter
$NVDA: depends on the year
$GOOGL: diluter turned share cannibal
$MSFT: slowing buybacks
$AAPL: share cannibal (37% reduction over 10y!)

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Saw an alarming Bloomberg headline today: "Notices of Impending Layoffs by US Companies Surged in October"

So I pulled the data, and it's a lot less alarming.

The data that BBG reported (in blue) is only from a set of 21 states and is not seasonally adjusted.

BBG left off the Cleveland Fed's layoff estimate (in orange) that's designed to provide a more complete national-level indicator of job losses.

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

Not every headline tells the whole story. Our latest article, “Understanding Private Credit: Dispelling the Doom and Gloom,” takes a closer look at what’s really happening behind the noise.

See how clarity brings peace to your financial perspective at https://t.co/FAavvrD2Y5

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

Running a business is complex, but keeping family and business finances aligned doesn’t have to be.

Discover how wisdom brings balance at https://t.co/2y9KwKObT0

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

In Q3, hyperscalers reported impressive revenue & staggering capex growth.

$META had the highest revenue growth (26%), capex growth (128%) & capex intensity (37%).

Combined, $META, $GOOG, $AMZN & $MSFT spent $97b on capex in Q3--24% of their revenue.

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

Happy Anniversary, Russ Crosson!

Russ was Blue Trust’s first hire 45 years ago, and he continues to serve as our Chief Mission Officer. Russ exemplifies what it means to keep the mission central & lead with integrity. Here’s to 45 years of influence, faithfulness, and impact. 💙

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Powell started with "the outlook hasn't changed," but then quickly turned hawkish, saying that a rate cut in Dec was "far from a foregone conclusion" amid "strongly differing views in the FOMC."

He also suggested that if the data vacuum persists (due to the gov't shutdown), it could make sense to pause rate cuts until the fog clears.

On the dovish side, he did say that non-market services & tariffs are to blame for much of inflation's overshoot, and that the Fed doesn't take much signal from those when assessing the tightness of the economy.

He also said that job creation is likely close to zero; albeit, labor supply (the immigration crackdown) is mostly to blame, and state-level initial claims & Indeed job openings don't show further deterioration.

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

💡 70% of adults over 65 will need some form of long-term care.

Learn how wisdom and preparation today can help secure your family’s tomorrow.

Read more at https://t.co/qxoxr5Ov7P

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

Running a business is complex. Keeping family and business finances separate doesn't have to be. In this podcast, Blue Trust advisors share ways to set goals, create healthy boundaries, and find peace of mind in financial decision-making.

🎧 Listen at

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[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

The Everyday Steward® division is designed specifically for individuals who often find themselves underserved by traditional financial firms. Exceptional care should never depend on the size of your portfolio.
#EverydaySteward #BlueTrust #WisdomForWealthForLife #FinancialPlanning

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Gold's been on a tear--almost doubling--since Feb 2024.

We believe its breakout is due to the US's increased unilateral policies (sanctions, tariffs...) & budget deficits.

Gold's performance is attracting trend-following strategies. So far though, positioning isn't extreme.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

You can easily make the case that the top 5 stocks in emerging markets (TSMC, Tencent, Alibaba, Samsung & Hynix)--which make up 22% of EM index funds--are all tech stocks, even AI stocks.

Yet, only 25% of all EM is officially classified as tech.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Ugly employment data from ADP this morning.

Sep job growth was -32k & Aug was revised down to -3k (first consecutive negative months since 2020)

Recently, ADP's closely tracked BLS payroll data (scheduled for Friday), which will likely be delayed due to the gov't shutdown.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Home prices fell again in July, for the fifth consecutive month, but only by -0.1%.

It appears prices may be stabilizing after the cumulative 1.1% decline since Feb.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

Friday brought more good news on the consumer, as real spending growth in July was revised up and Aug came in high & above expectations.

The Fed's nowcast for Q3 GDP growth is now 3.9%.

[Brian McClard @BrianMcClardCFA]

On Thursday, Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, due to a big boost in consumer spending.

The 1H economic slowdown now seems much more mild.

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

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#SportsFinances

[Blue Trust @_BlueTrust]

This week, Blue Trust is partnering with Groundwire to reach teens and young adults with the hope of Jesus right where they are: on their social feeds. 🙌

Learn more about this powerful ministry at https://t.co/TKYpcKCsNn

#BlueTrust #Groundwire #FaithDriven #NextGeneration