Gravedigger Capital

Digging deeper

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

#oil #china is the key to where oil pxs are going. Once they return to the market + global inventory restocking + Asian and European country new inventory builds, we will see where pxs go. When it happens, will it occur in a controlled way or with the physical in supply deficit?

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

We are now 50% cash. First time in a long time. May add a little more on strength over the coming week. After 10 weeks, we now think the market is mispricing the current oil deficit/hormuz closure. We feel going into this summer the downside risk exceeds the upside opportunity

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@Pollomasloco Thanks Andrew. You as well

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

#thread #uranium Mining supply issues persist globally. Nothing gets built on time, on budget & delivers the advertised lbs. NOTHING! Electricity supply has the same issues. Can't purchase a newly produced gas turbine until 2030. Pxs for a turbine have nearly 3x'ed since 2019

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

When you realize supply lags demand in every part of the chain, you realize that higher prices are required from here to balance out the equation

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

Every AI data center & all new electrical demand, plus every energy security project on earth is queuing for the same machines. We are in a global energy supply deficit. Building new supply (machines or fuel) seems tougher to deliver than new demand requires

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@JSmith8286 First time owning. We believe it should rerate over the next 12 months

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

Haven't shared a new uranium position in years. Looking for value in #uranium developers a month ago. Over the past two weeks we rotated out of a couple of names and completed a new position in AGE (Alligator Energy) for the first time. We couldn't find better value in the sector

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@JSmith8286 its the ASX. They are just built different down under

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@stocktraderjack We hold a position in DYL. They must produce this cycle and I like their assets, valuation, and management teams vs their North American peers. But $AGE is much cheaper by comparison.

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@todd_ramos @Lotus_Resources Issue with $Lot is their contract book first and production numbers second. They have held the #uranium LT px at $80 for 12 months. Not sure how great that looks for their book 24 months from now? Production numbers may revise lower and AISC costs may revise higher

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@uranium2burn I have in both private and public #uranium assets. Think most folks either dont understand geology or what a real development asset is & timeframes to get into production. Sweden has some assets and some pretenders. Not sure how quickly either can get cake in a can this cycle

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@samhodzic1 Fair. But a known #uranium brownfield asset with geology issues. One of the few bones I will throw to the management team is they have better production numbers with the asset than the former owners. My expectations were lower for Honeymoon

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@samhodzic1 They are at a discount to their ASX peers. They are at a serious discount to their North American peers. Some discounted #uranium developers/early producers have known issues. Some have bad contract books or bad geology presently. They dont yet have either

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@surfsk8sno I have Mike. Not sure they qualify at this point to be a legitimate develop co. I would consider them to be more of a later stage exploration company.

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@KlendathuCap Agreed

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

1) #uranium #thread Presently the existing experienced mining/mine building labour pool is literally a zero sum game. Poaching talent costs money (needs to happen out of the sector to increase the size of the talent pool available and decrease time to get into production).

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

@qftnoise That would be an issue their shareholders would have to grapple with

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

#uranium I am not sure why so many folks in the sector are upset with UEC. Like SPUT, they are a sequester of (potentially minable) lbs that will probably not get to market. Holding potential lbs and not producing is beneficial to longs

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

4) Blame for this issue starts with the message from most of the developers, but gets spread around the rest of the sector participants really quickly. Price reporters/marketers, utilities, sector associations & their S/D modeling inputs. Just the way things have always worked

[Gravedigger Capital @_Gravedigger__]

3) There arent enough folks to build greenfields mines that are promised/needed on the supply side. Not enough capital/marketcap or time (presently) to meet the upcoming demand. Inventories though available, will be sticky, in small quantities or available at much higher pxs.