Crypto₿

链上分析 | SMC | 订单流 | 实盘复盘笔记
日内/短线(日内为主)+长线趋势｜持续学习研究者
每个人都应为自己的仓位独立思辨，本人所有观点均不构成任何投资建议，仅供参考。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC探底，持续更新】从@ForeDex_Global 高级数据机构买入/卖出动能水平分析6/5的新低价格。

图1、图2，昨日价格新低，抛压未新低，从抛压维度给出的信号依然是积极的。

图3、图4，昨日价格新低，机构买入动能仍显不足，持续观察在后面的行情中机构买入动能是否超过2月份的买入动能。

OTC买入动能/BTC从交易所流入做市商的规模这两个代表机构买入动能的指标，将是我后续加仓第一参考指标。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC探底，持续更新】从@ForeDex_Global 高级数据机构买入动能水平的角度 分析6/4二次探底。

1 昨日通过抛压的角度分析了机构与鲸鱼在二次探底中抛压正在枯竭，更新6/4数据之后，结论依然同昨日，从抛压给出的信号是积极的。

2 今日从机构买入动能的角度予以分析，回顾昨日：OTC的买入动能、BTC从交易所流入做市商均能代表机构的买入动能。故下面二个图均可代表机构买入动能：

1）绿色线条代表了明显的高买入动能水平，通常当他们出现的时候底部已经过去、牛市已经启动，这是一个比较稳健、右侧的信号。

2）蓝色线条代表筑底中的局部买入动能高点（它们在全局的维度，不一定是高买入动能水平），他们不能达到牛市的买入动能水平，但是处于筑底阶段中的局部较高水平，事实上，真正的底部通常就在这些局部高点所指示的位置，我更偏向于通过比较筑底阶段中各个局部高点的相对变化，这样可以更早、更领先地发现底部信号。

而本轮牛市，11月份下跌、2月份下跌、6月份下跌这三次下跌，买入动能的确均处于逐步递减的趋势，显然，从买入动能的角度，这不是一个积极的信号。

若在之后的行情中，买入动能超过2月份的水平【昨日的积累评分趋势达到了0.75的强积累高分，我认为是可以期待的】，我认为就是一个非常积极的信号。

我将持续观察此信号的变化并更新，相信随着行情的发展，信号会越来越清晰。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

日内、短线上
做多的风险是激进买入的高倍多头，常规逻辑上讲，这不利于顺利的上涨。
做空的风险则是超卖反弹需求。
信号上有些矛盾，所以最近几天开单不够坚定。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

观察ETF和DATs需求恢复（机构需求恢复）将至关重要。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC探底，持续更新】从@ForeDex_Global 高级数据机构买入/卖出动能水平分析6/5的新低价格。

图1、图2，昨日价格新低，抛压未新低，从抛压维度给出的信号依然是积极的。

图3、图4，昨日价格新低，机构买入动能仍显不足，持续观察在后面的行情中机构买入动能是否超过2月份的买入动能。

OTC买入动能/BTC从交易所流入做市商的规模这两个代表机构买入动能的指标，将是我后续加仓第一参考指标。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC 探底，持续更新】
图1，积累趋势评分继续维持趋于黑色的高分；

图2，已实现盈利继续创下本轮周期新低；

图3，在本轮下跌中，LTH减持，虽价格新低，但LTH减持规模弱于2月份； 参见图4，这种情况类似于2022年熊底。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

$BTC
积累趋势评分继续维持趋于黑色的高分；
已实现盈利创下本轮周期新低。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@market_beggar 今天刚一睡醒，就看到小铃铛提示了贝格老师的文章，真巧😄

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@Murphychen888 好文👍

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

$BTC
积累趋势评分继续维持趋于黑色的高分；
已实现盈利创下本轮周期新低。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC 探底，持续更新】 BTC 6/5价格创下本轮周期新低$59130。

1 链上分析：

图1，积累趋势评分达到了代表最强积累的 1 分；

图2、3，价格新低，已实现盈利继续维持低位 & CBD派发较2月份价格低点时派发程度显著降低，表征抛压趋于枯竭；

图4，价格新低，已实现亏损反而未创下新低，此背离为看涨信号。

综上，链上维度，给出了显著的看涨信号。

2 技术分析：

散户在本轮下跌中的合约抄底FOMO情绪比较浓厚，超高倍看多合约不断涌入市场抄底，这种合约抄底FOMO情绪无疑不利于价格的上涨，合约属高风险交易，非具备丰富交易经验的人士，非常不推荐。

现货本人已入大部分仓位，若价格继续下行，会陆续补仓。

合约本人偏向于日内交易，一般情况下，习惯入睡前止盈或设置保本，基本上多空都有频繁做。

如上不构成任何投资建议，每个人都应该为自己的仓位负责，我亦只为我的仓位负责。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@hwj5451620 补充：

我认为这是一个可证伪，但是不可被证实的命题

若确实刚好命中，我也无法从逻辑上予以解释，所以没有办法参考。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

我回溯看过mignolet的很多推文，他的观点非常值得参考。

1 引文中“投资者心理仍出奇地乐观”在本轮下跌中非常明显，散户在本轮下跌过程中的合约抄底的FOMO情绪非常浓厚，超高倍看多合约不断涌入市场抄底，这种合约抄底FOMO情绪无疑不利于价格的上涨。

2 认同ETF转正与机构买入动能的恢复对结束熊市非常重要。这两者，
1）我更偏向于观察ETF转正；
2）OTC发生显著买入动能 / BTC大量从交易所流入做市商的时候，我依然觉得牛市已经启动，所以我将更偏向在之后的行情发展中，观察 OTC买入动能/BTC从交易所流入做市商的规模是否超过2月份（发生背离，价格更低，买入动能更强）。

每个人都需要有自己独立的思维辩证能力，进而对自己的仓位负责。

[mignolet @mignoletkr]

❗️Let's Talk About Something Serious
"What concerns me most is that many of the datasets now being used to call a bottom are largely the same datasets that were previously used to predict last year's market top."

The market continues to move in the direction I have been concerned about.
Bitcoin is barely holding the $60,000 level, but personally, I do not believe this area will hold for very long.
Since last week, I have repeatedly stated that conditions are becoming increasingly serious, and my view has not changed.
Today, I want to discuss two major concerns I have about the current market, as well as some thoughts on how market data should be interpreted in the post-ETF era.

✅Concern #1: Liquidity Conditions Are Extremely Weak

liquidity flows that became especially important after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF continue to deteriorate and are now at some of their weakest levels.
So what about the liquidity indicators that were important before ETF?
Unfortunately, they are not telling a different story.

If market conditions were deteriorating while major players were quietly accumulating positions in the background, the situation would be different.

In that case, one could argue that the classic idea of "buying when others are fearful" was actually being put into practice.

That would be a constructive signal.
However, the data is not showing that behavior.
Objectively speaking, conditions continue to worsen.

✅Concern #2: Investor Psychology Remains Surprisingly Optimistic

The bigger issue is that many retail investors do not seem to view the situation this way.
While liquidity conditions and market data continue to deteriorate, the narrative being repeated across the market remains:

"Bitcoin has already fallen enough."
"Everyone is panicking, so this must be the bottom."
"Every crisis eventually becomes an opportunity."
"This is a buying zone."

I believe this is extremely important.

There is a significant disconnect between actual buying liquidity and what investors expect to happen.
In my experience, during periods of genuine fear, people do not openly talk about buying opportunities.

Instead, confidence disappears.

People become afraid even to discuss the possibility of a bottom.
Yet today, many participants continue to interpret the market through the lens of past experiences.
In other words, many still believe that the market remains within a predictable framework based on previous cycles.
To me, that is precisely what makes the situation more dangerous.

❗️Rethinking Data Interpretation After ETF Approval

✅1. Market Structure Has Changed Since ETF Approval

approval of Bitcoin ETF fundamentally changed trading behavior and market structure.
Those changes have also had a meaningful impact on on-chain data.

I recognized this shift last year and have been developing new datasets and analytical frameworks based on this new environment.

For more details, I recommend reading the ForeDex "Insight Report" referenced above.

The key point is simple:
Many datasets that historically carried a high level of reliability no longer behave the way they did in previous cycles.

Technical cycle indicators, on-chain cycle indicators, and market cycle indicators all produced results that differed significantly from historical expectations.
We saw this very clearly around last year's market top.

✅2. Think Back to Last Year's Market Top

At the time, the market was filled with discussions about the "Banana Zone."

Many investors built detailed plans around various cycle indicators:

"I'll sell when price reaches this level."
"Then I'll rotate into altcoins."
"Then I'll rebalance my portfolio."

These were not vague ideas.

People had specific roadmaps.

But did the market actually follow those expectations?

Not at all.

When I raised concerns about this at the time, the response was mostly criticism and dismissal.

Yet in the end, the market did not behave the way most participants expected.

✅3. If the Framework for Identifying Tops Has Changed

If ETF approval changed the way market tops should be identified, then our approach to interpreting data must also change.

If existing frameworks no longer work, new frameworks are needed.

If existing datasets no longer provide reliable answers, new datasets must be developed.

This is where the real problem begins.

✅4. We Are No Longer Looking for the Top — We Are Looking for the Bottom

Today, market participants are no longer trying to identify a top.
They are trying to identify a bottom.
And numerous arguments are now being presented to support bottom-calling narratives.

But here is the contradiction.

Many of the datasets currently being used to argue that a bottom is forming are largely the same datasets that were previously used to predict last year's market top.

This is what concerns me most.
If those datasets failed when identifying the top, then we must at least consider the possibility that they could also fail when identifying the bottom.
Yet the market largely ignores this possibility.

The assumption seems to be:
"They failed at the top, but they'll work at the bottom."

I believe that assumption is dangerous.

✅Conclusion

Taken together, market conditions continue to deteriorate.

Yet many investors continue building plans around datasets and frameworks that previously provided clear signals but ultimately failed when it mattered most.

That concerns me deeply.

Markets do not move according to our plans.

The same frameworks that failed to identify the top are now being reused to identify the bottom.

As retail investors become smarter, the dominant market participants become even more sophisticated, more strategic, and more capable of exploiting expectations.

The implication is straightforward.

Even if a major price shock occurs, the market is unlikely to unfold the way most participants currently expect.
In fact, when everyone is using similar frameworks and reaching similar conclusions, the probability of a larger shock may actually increase.

And even if the market eventually moves in the expected direction, there will likely be extreme volatility designed to shake investors out of their positions and cloud their judgment along the way.

We do not need to look very far back for evidence.
Even during the April–May period, the market repeatedly created one deception on top of another, constantly manipulating investor psychology.
And it worked.

If investors can be misled so effectively within a structure lasting only a few months, can we really be confident that a multi-year cycle will unfold exactly as the majority expects?

I am not convinced that it will.

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@hwj5451620 这个底层逻辑我不理解呀，所以本人而言就不参考了🤣

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@hwj5451620 已经有仓位了，后面根据行情发展及关键信号加仓。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

从@ForeDex_Global 数据，对比 $BTC 第一时间段1/28 - 2/5，与第二时间段5/12-今这两段下跌行情：

迄今为止，
第一时间段跌幅更大，但是第二时间段的ETF流出量已远超过第一时间段，第二时间段的对抛压的吸收要强于第一时间段。

现在需要等待及观察的是，ETF的转正并持续何时发生，这将对行情的反转非常关键、至关重要。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

对比 $BTC 第一时间段1/28 - 2/5，与第二时间段5/12-今这两段下跌行情：（今日创下第二时间段新低，明日继续更新）

迄今为止，第一时间段跌幅更大，但是
1 ETF流出量第二时间段已远超过第一时间段；
2 无论CBD派发或者Coin Volume派发，第二阶段均已达到第一时间段的规模。

第二时间段的对抛压的吸收要强于第一时间段。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC 探底，持续更新】 BTC 6/5价格创下本轮周期新低$59130。

1 链上分析：

图1，积累趋势评分达到了代表最强积累的 1 分；

图2、3，价格新低，已实现盈利继续维持低位 & CBD派发较2月份价格低点时派发程度显著降低，表征抛压趋于枯竭；

图4，价格新低，已实现亏损反而未创下新低，此背离为看涨信号。

综上，链上维度，给出了显著的看涨信号。

2 技术分析：

散户在本轮下跌中的合约抄底FOMO情绪比较浓厚，超高倍看多合约不断涌入市场抄底，这种合约抄底FOMO情绪无疑不利于价格的上涨，合约属高风险交易，非具备丰富交易经验的人士，非常不推荐。

现货本人已入大部分仓位，若价格继续下行，会陆续补仓。

合约本人偏向于日内交易，一般情况下，习惯入睡前止盈或设置保本，基本上多空都有频繁做。

如上不构成任何投资建议，每个人都应该为自己的仓位负责，我亦只为我的仓位负责。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC 探底，持续更新】 6/4二次探底价格新低，链上继续给出积极信号，我认为这更多地是机会。

昨日6/4相对于6/3价格更低，与此同时，已实现盈利继续创下本轮周期新低 + CBD派发反而降低。

这说明低位筹码惜售情绪愈发浓厚，选择按兵不动了。

这是抛压枯竭的明显表现。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@ForeDex_Global 很好的指标👍

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@market_beggar 蹦，开砸了💣

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@Murphychen888 砸破一下60K，信号就更加清晰了😄

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@luoz_a9 @Murphychen888 明明 好牛呀，认识一下。😄

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

@Sqqqq1269262 继续看

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

【 $BTC 探底，持续更新】 6/4二次探底价格新低，链上继续给出积极信号，我认为这更多地是机会。

昨日6/4相对于6/3价格更低，与此同时，已实现盈利继续创下本轮周期新低 + CBD派发反而降低。

这说明低位筹码惜售情绪愈发浓厚，选择按兵不动了。

这是抛压枯竭的明显表现。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

$BTC 暴跌给出的信号，看似恐惧，但看下面分享的四个图，当前的 $BTC并不悲观（今日亚盘再次放量下行，明日再更新）

图1：积累趋势评分0.5，大于本轮周期触及60K时的0.46分。（积累趋势强于2月份下探60K时）

图2：已实现盈利昨日创下本轮周期最低值。（比2月份下跌值更低，说明盈利筹码惜售情绪非常浓厚）

图3： 本轮下跌中LTH的减持规模明显小于2月份下跌（与图2可以互为印证）

图4：CBD（Coin Blocks Destroyed）派发在下跌中依然保持低派发，说明早期筹码抛压枯竭（可与图2、3互为印证）