JP Roach

Dad | Husband | Investor | CRE | Attorney

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

I could be wrong on the timing. The direction seems clearer.

Anyone else seeing the IE conversation start to shift?

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

I'm not predicting a sharp snap back. The IE has 80 million SF to absorb before things get tight again.

But the difference between signing a 7-year lease today versus eighteen months from now could be meaningful.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

When a market moves from near-zero vacancy to 8.82% in a few years, the instinct is to assume this is the new normal.

But the reasons for the reset, mostly tariff uncertainty and a pullback in import volumes, are starting to stabilize.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

The Inland Empire industrial reset, in one stat.

In 2021, available space was around 20 million SF. Today, it's about 80 million SF.

Vacancy moved from near zero to 8.82%.

That's not a soft patch. That's a different market.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

Here's the part I keep thinking about.

@CBRE's 2026 outlook calls for 5% leasing growth and points to early tightening signals in submarkets like Jurupa Valley and Chino.

I think the window most tenants are sitting in is shorter than it feels.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

If you're a logistics or distribution tenant, this is the most leverage you've had in a decade. Probably longer.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

Asking rates dropped almost 11% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Free rent periods are running long.

Renewals are projected to be 35%+ of total leasing volume in 2026, well above the historical 24% average.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

@mikealfred I bet they can find a way to leave your putt short 🤷🏼

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

I don't think waiting works in either market right now.

Heading into the weekend. Anyone seeing something different in their markets?

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

Two life sciences markets. 90 miles apart. Completely different realities.

San Diego: 26.5% vacancy, rising to 29.2% in some counts. National life sciences rents down 9% last year.

Orange County: 3% availability. Rents up 6%.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

If you're in OC, you're competing for scraps.

Both situations create opportunity. Just different kinds.

San Diego: upgrade while you can.
OC: lock in space before the next funding wave.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

I think the most valuable buildings might not be the newest ones. They might be the ones whose original purpose happens to match what's needed next.

I could be reading too much into it. But the leasing activity speaks for itself.

Anyone else watching this corridor?

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

El Segundo industrial vacancy is ~3.4%.

That's basically full.

[JP Roach @_JPRoach]

But the bones are right. High clear heights. Heavy power. Room for engineers and light manufacturing under one roof.

It's like the region accidentally built the perfect infrastructure for an industry that didn't exist when these buildings went up.