So much for a well-timed release on Bitcoin this weekend being added as a strategic reserve asset. Very poor action in the overall indices today and most individual stocks. Strong opens and poor closes are emblematic of a weak environment.
Game Changer!
This news can change the entire tenor of the market. We will see how this shakes out but it is extremely significant and can reverse the downtrend. I expect this report to have a very positive impact. This release was timed for maximum effect on this weekend.
We are 100% in cash and there is a strong possibility we short a bounce next week in the Nasdaq. If we do, it will be by purchasing the $Sqqq. The S&P 500 is still in an uptrend and has not triggered a sell signal yet.
Atlanta Fed predicts 1.5% decline in GDP in 1st quarter in 2025. This is an unexpected and dramatic change and may be a foreshadowing of what is to come.
https://t.co/41HxV5Mq5t…
This is a very timely presentation from last night's presentation to the Boston Meetup Group. It reflects tactics we are currently implementing as we move our remaining positions to the sidelines. Playing defense here.
Slide Deck
https://t.co/pm0r4TDP25…
Our trend models are still positive here. While unquestionably, the momentum has waned, we are still on a buy signal in the overall trend in the market. Getting into the weeds here looking at the technicals. Right on the fence here. It is 50/50 here based on
Anecdotal from Wayne Whaley. There has been 22 years since 1950 that has made an ATH in February. In 19 of those cases , the market was up an average of 14% over the next 12 months. None of those cases were the market down double digits. 14 of those cases had a drawdown on less
Achieving 20% returns / year over the past 5 years does not come without drawdowns and pullbacks. That is the price to pay for even the best world class investors. Investing isn't a get rich quick scheme. It is hard work but worth it and you can change your life if you have
Keep it in perspective. We are managing risk in real time. We are reacting to what is happening and not investing based on our opinion. "Markets are never wrong while opinions often are." We think the next 2 weeks will provide the best buying opportunity in 2025.
We have two National webinars coming up this week that we will be posting about. Talk about perfect timing! First of all, Richard Moglen of the premier and esteemed educational service https://t.co/CjN3iAD6Fh will interview Wes and I about Selling Stocks on Tuesday.
The last 90 days have been highly volatile. I can't remember such a recent time in the past. The $QQQ is an important bell weather. As the $QQQ's go, the growth stock universe and $Ffty goes. Very very important, If we can get through this week unscathed, it will be maximum
A distribution day in the upcoming week especially if we are down more than 1.2% in one day could be negative for the short term prospects. Today was day 2 off the all time high in the $SPX. A decisive move below Friday's closing low would be concerning. Just the opposite of
$Fngs has exhibited leadership for the last 6 months. The break on Friday is problematic. $51-$55 is where the downside risk resides. We took a small loss in $Fngu on Friday. Waiting for the dust to settle now. If we break $55.60, it will set up an "under cover and rally" setup or a potential "shakeout and 3". If $Fngs goes to $51, then I am quite confident that would be one of the best buying opportunities in 2025. Managing risk in real time.