Olivia
Online
Wealth Formula Podcast
@_wealthformula
Personal Finance and Economics for High-Income Professionals.
New episode every Monday.
Santa Barbara, CA
Joined October 2023
34 Following
86 Followers
800 Posts
A generation ago, career advice was relatively simple.
Get a degree.
Develop a skill.
Climb the ladder.
The problem today isn't that this advice is wrong.
It's that nobody knows which ladders will still exist.
That's new.
For most of modern history, technological change happened slowly enough that people could make long-term career decisions with reasonable confidence.
Today, entire industries can change in a few years.
The challenge isn't keeping up.
The challenge is choosing.
Should you become a programmer?
AI writes code.
Should you go into finance?
AI builds models.
Should you become a consultant?
AI summarizes research.
The uncertainty isn't whether these professions survive.
It's what the entry point looks like five years from now.
That's what makes this moment unusual.
The question isn't:
"What job is safest?"
The question is:
"Which skills remain valuable even if the tools change?"
That's a much harder question.
And it's one many colleges still aren't preparing people to answer.
A generation ago, career advice was relatively simple.
Get a degree.
Develop a skill.
Climb the ladder.
The problem today isn't that this advice is wrong.
It's that nobody knows which ladders will still exist.
That's new.
For most of modern history, technological change happened slowly enough that people could make long-term career decisions with reasonable confidence.
Today, entire industries can change in a few years.
The challenge isn't keeping up.
The challenge is choosing.
Should you become a programmer?
AI writes code.
Should you go into finance?
AI builds models.
Should you become a consultant?
AI summarizes research.
The uncertainty isn't whether these professions survive.
It's what the entry point looks like five years from now.
That's what makes this moment unusual.
The question isn't:
"What job is safest?"
The question is:
"Which skills remain valuable even if the tools change?"
That's a much harder question.
And it's one many colleges still aren't preparing people to answer.
The best real estate opportunities rarely show up when everyone feels optimistic.
As financing tightens and uncertainty keeps investors on the sidelines, quality assets are trading at discounts that haven't been seen in years.
This week, Victor Menasce @VMenasce joins the Wealth Formula Podcast to break down where he's seeing opportunity, why some multifamily properties are selling 30–40% below peak values, and how smart investors are navigating today's commercial real estate market.
Watch the full episode to hear where the next opportunities may be emerging:
https://t.co/QoCXEaqbkf
#CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #PassiveIncome #distressedproperty
The stock market and the bond market are telling slightly different stories right now.
And that's worth paying attention to.
Stocks seem incredibly optimistic.
Major indexes are near highs.
Investors are betting on AI.
They're betting on productivity.
They're betting that corporate earnings keep growing.
The bond market is more cautious.
Not panicked.
Not predicting disaster.
Just more cautious.
Higher yields suggest investors still see inflation as a risk.
They still see uncertainty.
They still want compensation for lending money long term.
That's an interesting divergence.
Because markets usually become most dangerous when everyone agrees.
Today, they don't.
One market is saying:
"The future looks great."
The other is saying:
"Maybe. But there are still some things to worry about."
Neither market has to be completely right.
Neither market has to be completely wrong.
But when two of the largest markets in the world are sending different signals...
it's usually worth asking why.
Especially in an environment where:
Inflation remains elevated.
Energy markets remain volatile.
AI is reshaping productivity.
And economic growth keeps surprising people.
The most interesting thing about this market may not be what stocks are saying.
It may be what bonds are refusing to say.
Some of the best real estate investments in history were made when the headlines were overwhelmingly negative.
When financing dries up, lenders become restrictive, sellers become motivated, and uncertainty keeps many investors on the sidelines, opportunities begin to emerge for those willing to look beyond today's fear.
That is precisely where we find ourselves today.
Commercial real estate has endured one of the most challenging environments in decades. Rising interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and a wave of new supply have placed significant pressure on many markets.
Yet while these challenges have created distress, they have also created something investors haven't seen in years: the ability to buy quality assets at substantial discounts to replacement cost and prior valuations.
The question is not whether opportunities exist. The question is where they exist and how to identify them.
This week, I sat down with real estate investor and entrepreneur Victor Menasce @VMenasce to discuss what he's seeing across the commercial real estate landscape.
We talk about why some multifamily properties are trading 30-40% below peak values, how oversupply is impacting certain markets, and why investors who understand local supply-and-demand dynamics may be positioned to benefit from the current dislocation.
Victor also makes an important point that often gets lost in national discussions. Real estate is not one market. Every city, neighborhood, and asset class has its own story.
While some areas remain challenged, others continue to benefit from powerful long-term drivers, including population growth, immigration, healthcare demand, and housing affordability trends.
Today's environment resembles the periods that have historically produced exceptional long-term returns. Institutional investors, family offices, and large private capital pools are increasingly stepping into distressed situations, not because they believe conditions are perfect, but because they recognize that buying quality assets during periods of pessimism has often been a winning strategy.
Of course, success still requires discipline. Financing matters. Market selection matters. Understanding future supply matters. But for investors willing to do the work, today's market may ultimately be remembered less for the distress it created and more for the opportunities it presented.
Watch on YouTube:
https://t.co/QoCXEaqbkf
Listen on Apple Podcasts:
https://t.co/fV32FJ3YTu
Listen on Spotify:
https://t.co/J0xehYjIzs
Dental professionals: I joined Dr. Sonny Spera @drspera on the Dentist in General podcast to discuss investing strategies, tax planning, and ways you can keep more of what you earn.
Watch here: https://t.co/WVKz4xddPK
#DentistInvesting #TaxStrategies #DentalPractice #WealthBuilding #PassiveIncome
For 30 years, globalization helped keep inflation low.
Companies moved production to places with cheaper labor.
Consumers got lower prices.
Businesses got higher margins.
Everybody got used to that world.
But that world is changing.
Supply chains are being reshored.
Critical industries are being brought back home.
Semiconductors.
Manufacturing.
Energy infrastructure.
Industrial capacity.
The problem?
Doing those things in the U.S. is more expensive.
Which means the very process of rebuilding industrial capacity can be inflationary.
That's where AI enters the picture.
Most people think of AI as a technology story.
It may be an economic story.
Because if AI allows workers and businesses to become dramatically more productive...
it can help offset some of the inflationary pressure created by onshoring.
In other words:
The U.S. is trying to do something difficult.
Bring production back home...
without permanently driving costs through the roof.
That's a much easier task if productivity is accelerating at the same time.
Which creates a fascinating possibility.
AI isn't just another tech boom.
It may become the replacement for one of the biggest economic tailwinds of the last three decades.
Globalization helped suppress inflation.
AI might be asked to do the same thing.
The next decade could be a race between rising costs and rising productivity.
And that outcome may determine far more than just the future of technology.
The biggest winners of the next decade won't just be the countries with the best technology, but also those with the reliable, abundant, and affordable energy needed to power it.
#coal #EnergyPolicy #ArtificialIntelligence #coalplant #Economy
Inflation isn't the strange part.
The strange part is that we're even talking about rate cuts.
Headline PCE inflation just hit 3.8%.
Core PCE is running at 3.3%.
Both remain well above the Fed's 2% target.
Under a traditional playbook, this shouldn't be a debate.
Higher inflation should mean tighter policy.
End of story.
But today's economy isn't following a traditional playbook.
Because policymakers aren't just looking at inflation.
They're also looking at:
AI-driven labor disruption.
Energy shocks.
Global growth risks.
Financial stability.
And the possibility that some inflation is being driven by supply constraints rather than excess demand.
That's where things get complicated.
Higher rates can reduce demand.
But they can't produce more oil.
They can't reopen shipping routes.
They can't rebuild inventories.
So the Fed is left trying to answer a difficult question:
How much of today's inflation can monetary policy actually solve?
That's why the debate has become so contentious.
Not because inflation is low.
Because inflation is still too high...
and policymakers aren't fully convinced the old tools work the way they used to.
The real disagreement isn't about where inflation is today.
It's about what's causing it.
And depending on that answer, the correct policy response could look completely different.
Treasury Secretary Bessent says the U.S. is moving "very quickly" on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a digital asset initiative, and advancing the Clarity Act.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #DigitalAssets #CryptoRegulation
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Find out on this week's episode with Rob Chrisman from Chrisman Commentary @ChrismanNews:
https://t.co/R3tDcckitW
#mortgagerates #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #JeromePowell #FedChair
Imagine graduating with a finance degree today.
You spent four years preparing for an analyst job.
Meanwhile, the electrician down the street has more work than he can handle.
Ten years ago, that would have sounded ridiculous.
Today, it doesn't.
For years, people assumed automation would come for physical labor first.
Factories.
Construction.
Trades.
Instead, some of the first jobs feeling real pressure are sitting behind a computer.
Analysts.
Junior consultants.
Entry-level finance roles.
Administrative work.
The reason is simple.
Replacing a repetitive digital task is often easier than replacing a human operating in the physical world.
A spreadsheet is easier to automate than a construction site.
A report is easier to automate than an electrical grid.
A financial model is easier to automate than a hospital.
That's creating a strange inversion.
The jobs many people viewed as "future proof" are suddenly facing disruption.
While electricians, infrastructure workers, nurses, HVAC technicians, and construction crews remain in short supply.
At least for now.
But the bigger issue isn't just job replacement.
It's career development.
For decades, white-collar careers followed a predictable path:
Junior work → experience → expertise.
The repetitive work wasn't the destination.
It was the training.
If AI removes enough of those entry-level tasks, how do future experts get built?
How does an analyst become a senior analyst?
How does a consultant become a partner?
That's the part most people aren't talking about.
AI isn't just changing jobs.
It may be changing the process by which expertise itself gets created.
The market is having two completely different conversations right now.
One conversation is about what's exciting.
AI.
Productivity.
Automation.
Explosive growth.
The other is about what's discounted.
And hardly anyone is paying attention to that one.
That's usually where things get interesting.
Most investors spend their time asking:
"What's going to change the future?"
Far fewer ask:
"What is already priced for failure?"
Those are very different questions.
Because an investment doesn't have to be the best story.
It just has to be better than expectations.
That's why some of the biggest winners aren't the assets with the strongest headlines.
They're the assets where reality turns out slightly better than everyone feared.
The challenge is that these opportunities rarely look attractive at the time.
They usually come with:
bad sentiment
recent pain
skeptical investors
endless reasons to stay away
That's what creates the discount in the first place.
Markets are constantly trying to price the future.
But they often get trapped by the recent past.
A sector gets hit.
Capital leaves.
Investors move on.
And then something subtle happens.
The fundamentals stop getting worse.
Then they start getting better.
Long before most people notice.
The best opportunities often appear in that gap.
The gap between improving reality...
and outdated perception.
By the time the crowd notices the story has changed, the easy money has usually already been made.
The Significance Behind Saylor's Bitcoin Sale
#Bitcoin #MichaelSaylor #Strategy #CryptoInvesting #WealthBuilding
One of the most underappreciated consequences of AI may be what it does to social mobility.
For decades, white-collar careers followed a fairly predictable path.
You started with repetitive work.
Building models.
Creating reports.
Doing research.
Analyzing data.
The work wasn't glamorous.
But it served a purpose.
It trained people.
Junior analysts became senior analysts.
Associates became partners.
The repetitive work was the ladder.
AI may be removing the ladder.
Not because expertise is becoming less valuable.
Because the training ground is disappearing.
If AI can already perform much of the entry-level work, companies need fewer entry-level workers.
Which creates a difficult question:
How do you develop experts if fewer people get the chance to become apprentices?
Historically, productivity gains mostly made workers more productive.
This time, productivity gains may reduce the number of workers needed to begin with.
That's a very different dynamic.
And it could create a strange outcome:
The people with experience become even more valuable.
The people trying to gain experience face a much steeper climb.
That's why the disruption may not show up first in unemployment data.
It may show up in career progression.
Fewer entry points.
Fewer training opportunities.
More competition for the jobs that remain.
The real question isn't whether AI can replace experts.
It's whether future experts will still have a path to becoming experts in the first place.
A couple of weeks ago, I had Barry Habib on the podcast talking about where he believes interest rates and the economy may be headed over the next several years. Barry has been one of the more accurate voices in housing and mortgage finance during a period when many economists and market commentators have repeatedly gotten it wrong.
This week, I wanted to continue that discussion with mortgage industry veteran Rob Chrisman because I think there’s a bigger lesson here for investors.
Right now, the stock market is near all-time highs again, and naturally, people want in. Investors are drawn toward momentum. They feel safer buying things that have already gone up.
At the exact same time, many areas of real estate—particularly multifamily—have already experienced massive repricing, with some assets trading 30–40% below peak valuations from just a few years ago.
And yet most investors are far more comfortable chasing expensive assets than buying discounted ones.
That’s the irony of investing.
As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Easy to say. Very hard to do.
Part of the reason this environment feels so confusing is because we are dealing with conflicting macroeconomic forces at the same time.
On one side, you have persistent inflation concerns, massive government deficits, Treasury issuance, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around Fed policy. All of those things can keep long-term interest rates elevated.
On the other side, there are growing signs of slowing geopolitical tensions easing over time. I suspect that once the Iran conflict is resolved, we may start to see rates come down as energy prices help quell inflationary pressures, alongside broader economic activity, weakening consumer confidence, and eventually perhaps even disinflationary pressure from technology and AI-driven productivity gains.
That’s why both Barry Habib and Rob Chrisman make an important point that many investors still misunderstand: mortgage rates are not simply controlled by the Federal Reserve.
Markets are constantly trying to price all of these competing forces in real time.
Rob does a great job explaining how mortgage-backed securities, Treasury markets, inflation expectations, labor data, and global capital flows all interact to determine where rates go next. He also explains why the ultra-low rates of 2020 and 2021 were likely an anomaly created by extraordinary Federal Reserve intervention—not necessarily something we should anchor to as “normal.”
The bigger question for investors is this:
Are today’s elevated rates temporary noise within a longer-term descending rate cycle? Or are we entering a structurally different environment altogether?
Because if rates ultimately move lower over the next several years, the assets currently under the most pressure today may eventually become the assets people wish they had bought when they were on sale.
Watch on YouTube:
https://t.co/xJkGgmmRj1
Listen on Apple Podcasts:
https://t.co/wkOI9fKFiA
Listen on Spotify:
https://t.co/A6XWMPMxIE
Everyone’s predicting an AI-driven collapse in consumer spending—but that assumes the money just disappears. It doesn’t. It shifts. When wages drop, profits rise. And when profits rise, capital gets redeployed into investment. The real story isn’t economic collapse—it’s redistribution, and that’s where things get politically explosive.
Watch the full episode to understand how AI is actually reshaping the economy—and who really wins:
https://t.co/8ttVWhHcd3
#AIeconomy #investingstrategy #futureofwork #macroeconomics #wealthbuilding
One of the most important questions in investing right now is:
What happens if inflation stays elevated... but the Fed still wants to cut rates?
Because that's not supposed to happen.
The traditional view is simple:
High inflation → higher rates.
Low inflation → lower rates.
But today's economy may not be that simple.
What if inflation is being driven by things the Fed can't easily control?
Energy.
Shipping disruptions.
Supply-chain restructuring.
Commodity shortages.
Higher rates don't produce more oil.
They don't reopen trade routes.
They don't rebuild inventories.
So policymakers can end up stuck in an uncomfortable position.
Inflation remains above target.
Growth starts slowing.
And neither option looks particularly attractive.
Raise rates?
Risk damaging growth.
Cut rates?
Risk fueling inflation.
That's why some of the biggest economic debates today aren't about where inflation is.
They're about what kind of inflation we're dealing with.
Demand-driven inflation is one problem.
Supply-driven inflation is a completely different one.
And markets are trying to figure out which world we're actually living in.
Because the answer determines almost everything:
Interest rates.
Asset prices.
Housing.
Stocks.
Bonds.
Even if inflation stays above target, investors may eventually care more about growth than inflation.
Or they may decide inflation is becoming the bigger threat.
The challenge is that both risks can exist at the same time.
And that's what makes this cycle so difficult to navigate compared to the last decade.
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