Aaron

Futures and Options trader. Recreational poker player. Afghanistan OEF Veteran and Great Dane lover.

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

Finally got around to updating my office PC. I'm still waiting on the water blocks for both GPU's before I can finish tuning and benchmarking everything.

I7-9700 3.6GHz overclocked to 5GHz
Z390 AORUS MB
Dual AMD 5700 OC GPU's
500 GB M2 SSD
1TB SSD HD
32 GB Ripjaws ram
850W PS

[Bob - 🍖🔥🌶️📈(BBQ & Trading ™) @optionsbbq]

A question for senior leaders at Tastytrade:
@tastytrade @tastyliveshow

After seeing how the changes at the end of last week were handled, it makes me question the longterm viability of the tastytrade platform.  

The message I got from how the changes were made was a simple one:  The only thing management really cares about is dollars and margins.  This may not have been the intended message, but frankly it’s want I took away from how things were handled.

I’ve been a loyal customer with a fairly large account >XXXX since 2020.

I’d like to hear from senior management, why I should be confident the platform is here to stay, will be supported, and grown.  The feeling I have at the moment is all that is in question.  If you’re not trying to attract and bring new customers to the platform (part of the message I got from last week), what assurance do we have as users that the platform will continue to grow and improve?

Please have someone in senior leadership provide a thoughtful response.

At this point I am considering returning to TOS.

Regards and Be safe.
Bob
@optionsbbq #OptionsBBQ

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@ggreenwald The hysterical pearl clutching from the "F#@k your feelings" crowd is hilarious. ���

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@RepShriThanedar 🤣🤣🤣

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@AnnCoulter Good thing Witkoff and Kushner will be there. Someone needs to represent Russia's interests.

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@CarlHigbie 🤣🤡

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@visegrad24 😂😂😂

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@Tony_BATtista @tastyliveshow Thanks for clarifying.

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@INArteCarloDoss 😂

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

If you find talk of bond and forex markets hard to track, this graph does an amazing job illustrating what's going on (and why).

[BonkDaCarnivore @BonkDaCarnivore]

Let's talk about GDP:

Remember the formula for GDP:

(C)onsumer spending + (I)nvestment + (G)overment spending + (NX) Net Exports, then adjust by inflation to create Real GDP

Much is made about the "DOGE" cuts, but if you look under the hood, no actual spending cuts have been made. In fact, they've only been able to prove about 8 billion dollars in waste (they were claiming 220 billion found, then later revised it to 105....but still can't prove 97 of it). So (G) remains constant for this upcoming GDP print in terms of labor expense. BUT it should be noted that we set a record for the fewest days to acquire 1 trillion dollars in debt this year than any other point in our nation's history, and we're slated to deficit spend 3 trillion dollars this year - a record if you don't account for the COVID money printing. So (G) is actually UP

The February print just came out, and consumer spending is +.4% for the month, and +.1% YTD. So (C) increases slightly. It's worth noting that the expectation was an increase of +.5%, so spending is down compared to expectations

Core inflation rose by 2.8% in February

Which leaves us with (I)nvestment and (NX) Net Exports

Because I don't believe in holding your hands, I'm going to force all of you to go out there and find this data - I want you to start learning how to fish. But what I will say is this, and I'm going to give you a chart to help you out:

Quarterly GDP, at the start of February before everybody started factoring in the effect of Trump's tariffs and the ENORMOUS exodus of money from the US equity markets into the global equity markets (particularly Europe, where most of the outflow is going to), was projected to be 3.9%.

The current prediction for quarterly Real GDP is -2.9%. That is a swing of 6.8% in less than 2 months, which represents the largest swing IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY.

If you're even a little astute, you saw me help you with one component of (I).

The Felon-in-Chief proclaims that all these companies are going to spend trillions of dollars in infrastructure investment to build blue collar factory work here in the United States. If any of those expenditures were true, you would see it as a reflection of an increase in (I), in spite of the liquidity that has left the US equity markets. However, anybody who has been in the business world knows the large amount of years it takes to develop infrastructure, and how most companies who "pledge" to increase spending in a given area never actually do it - they simply say the words while waiting for the current leader to leave and the next who won't be so hostile towards their business strategies to take their place (see also: The major "Foxconn fabrication plant" that was going to be built in WI, for example)

Which leaves (NX). The "net" portion is important. NX is reflected by exports MINUS imports.

So, if (C) and (G) are up, and we went from an estimated +3.9% to a -2.9% estimate (and yes, I'm fully aware of the one-off "gold trade" involved in this print; even if we exclude it - which we shouldn't - the predicted GDP for the quarter is still negative, but GDP was revised the most in the history of our country, that means the negative data has to be coming from one of the 2 remaining variables.

If you listen to Trump, the economy is on its way to untold heights, with investment we've never seen before in the history of this country. You also hear him say that his trade wars are having no harm on domestic producers and the exports most of them rely upon.

Something people also forget: Trump is the first president in the history of this nation to never have a +3% annual GDP growth. Trump famously used to claim Obama never achieved that, but that statement is only true by calendar year, not fiscal year. Obama actually had a 3.3% year between 2014 and 2015 on the fiscal calendar (remember, the US fiscal calendar is 1 quarter askew). Trump, however, DID accomplish that feat of never having a 3% year (though he came close with a 2.992% print, which he "generously" rounds upwards for himself. And his first quarter of his final term - and half of his time with a GOP controlled legislative branch - is already torched in terms of getting an annual 3%.

So who are you to believe? Him or your lyin' eyes and the ability to perform basic quadratic equations?

As the kids say...the math ain't mathin'. Trump sets yet another record: The worst-run quarter in the history of our nation.

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@JonahDispatch "Never argue with stupid people". Seems like good advice

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@realErikDPrince @ValentinaForUSA @JDVance I agree, thanks for speaking up

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@KYRRadio @Shorteverythin1 Ask Grok

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@KYRRadio @Shorteverythin1 Ask Grok this question "what individual is the greatest spreader of misinformation on x."

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@RonFilipkowski You mean hit a cop and get pardoned

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@Shorteverythin1 Writings on the wall

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@RampCapitalLLC Same here, except I can't do triple integrals or differential equations either

[Aaron @AAAMoinet]

@RepThomasMassie Schumer's a clown