Aaron Strauss

Using evidence-based strategies to elect Dems; Dad x2; feminist; kidney donor. Fmr Exec Dir @AnalystInst; ex- @DCCC, @Google.

[Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss]

Musk chose the robo-taxi date 8/8 not because they're ready, but to dog whistle to neo-nazi white supremacists https://t.co/gVXOEHGqLt

Find me on threads: https://t.co/VFH57Vu08N

[Bloomberg @business]

This was supposed to be the day Tesla would show off some robotaxis. They're not ready, the system Elon Musk touts as evidence of their imminence is flawed https://t.co/fHY4QlYQV9

[Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss]

I'm over at the other app with professional news: joining up with others to figure out how Dems can win more elections! https://t.co/GKY8OPb4zq

[Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss]

@Alexandracrea You're right, it was far fetched...the Threads part. I'm on Blue Sky starting today! https://t.co/ZvbkCWqHVV…

And, oh, btw...Robo Taxis were indeed not ready (not even close).

[Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss]

Musk chose the robo-taxi date 8/8 not because they're ready, but to dog whistle to neo-nazi white supremacists https://t.co/gVXOEHGqLt

Find me on threads: https://t.co/VFH57Vu08N

[Bloomberg @business]

This was supposed to be the day Tesla would show off some robotaxis. They're not ready, the system Elon Musk touts as evidence of their imminence is flawed https://t.co/fHY4QlYQV9

[David Shor @davidshor]

I spent some time today digging into the voting-center level results recently posted by the Venezuelan opposition (https://t.co/xGv7PLghit)

1) Their dataset has ~81% coverage - doing some modeling to extrapolate the data they collected to the rest of the country, I'm estimating that the Opposition got 66% of the vote compared to 32% for Maduro.

2) Unsurprisingly, the ~20% of missing precincts are modeled to be substantially more supportive of Maduro (Opposition +19) than the precincts they did collect (Opposition + 37) and also are quite a bit smaller, lending some credence to the data generation process. Even if Maduro won all of the votes in these precincts the opposition still would win easily.

3) The opposition saw it's largest gains in lower-income precincts that went strongly for Maduro in 2013, winning ~2/3rds of precincts that Maduro won eleven years ago

4) It's hard to "prove" that a set of election results are real - but having spent a decent amount of time doing regressions on the results, they show the same kind of complex relationships with previous election results and demographics that I have seen in American elections, in a way that I think would be pretty difficult to replicate out of thin air.

[Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac]

This paper had everyone at NBER talking this week. Amazing natural experiment, important results!

"The Impact of Denying a Wanted Abortion on Women and Children" by @juliana_londono & Estefanía Saravia

https://t.co/R6IxPc1ZuA

[Jesse Ferguson @JesseFFerguson]

🚨 HUGE spike in awareness and rejection of Project2025

JUNE 24, 2024: -9 points
FAV: 10%
UNFAV: 19%

JULY 14, 2024: -32 points
FAV: 11%
UNFAV: 43%

[Bill de Blasio @BilldeBlasio]

This decision puts @JoeBiden in a pantheon of selfless American political heroes. We have to compare @POTUS to three of our greatest Presidents, who all made a similar decision: Washington, Truman and LBJ. History will embrace @JoeBiden!

[Tammy Baldwin @tammybaldwin]

Get a load of this guy...

[Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast]

He sounds so tired

[Ben Wikler @benwikler]

Genuinely don't want this guy on my TV for the next four years.

[Leah Greenberg says NO KINGS ❌👑 @Leahgreenb]

Honestly hard to fit this much antisemitism, anti-Blackness and misogyny into a single comment. Truly an advanced level of bigotry from JD Vance

[Jessica Valenti @JessicaValenti]

The @nytimes is has *deceptively edited a JD Vance quote* to make it appear that he opposes a national ban. Here's the 2022 quote they use:

“Ohio is going to want to have a different abortion policy from California, from New York, and I think that’s reasonable."

[Trae Crowder @traecrowder]

ON JD VANCE’S WHOLE DEAL

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Oh. I was reliably told by Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, and other Russian assets that NATO expansion was the reason Russia invaded Ukraine…

[Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen]

NEW: 11 shuttered auto plants will become EV factories thanks to $1.7 billion Biden program https://t.co/SonLSK7yjb

[Kelsey Piper @KelseyTuoc]

CS Lewis said once, "“Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper. Then suppose that something turns up suggesting that the story might not be quite true, or not quite so bad as it was made out. Is one's first feeling, 'Thank God, even they aren't quite so bad as that,' or is it a feeling of disappointment, and even a determination to cling to the first story for the sheer pleasure of thinking your enemies are as bad as possible?"

A lot of Gaza discourse on this site feels to me like it runs off a determination to enjoy the sheer pleasure of thinking your enemies are as bad as possible. And there's plenty of grist for that - even if you don't invent any from whole cloth - but it's a destructive impulse and more than that it's a masturbatory impulse. It doesn't save a single person in Gaza. I don't know what will, but I think you have to start by doing your best to actually estimate the numbers you care about, not just pull out creative arguments for inflating them.

[Headquarters @HQNewsNow]

Trump’s Press Secretary is literally starring in recruitment ads for Project 2025

[Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss]

@dylanmatt Apparently yes: https://t.co/cDMyJGhu2E

[Reed Cooke Neighborhood Association @REEDCOOKEDC]

Join us next Saturday July 10th for a neighborhood cleanup in Adams Morgan!

Trash bags, gloves, trash grabbers and refreshments provided!

See you at Unity Park!!!

[Zach Lowy @ZachLowy]

US Soccer will never be a successful program as long as they continue to ignore the nation’s most talented players and prioritize the players whose parents can afford travel fees, tournament registration, summer camps and everything else involved in the sham that is youth soccer.

[Robert Downen @RobertDownen_]

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had everything to do with that. And that shows you how disinformation can kill.”

This Vanity Fair piece on RFK Jr. is a must-read for a number of reasons, including this anecdote. https://t.co/ojGmRC2M8T