@micsolana In 2014 there was a public art project by the non profit Art City Project that took over 11 billboards, 4 bus shelters, and 3 buses and it gave me a surprising amount of joy to see
@paulg I don’t think there’s any one agreed upon definition for AGI but I like Metaculus’ definition that they came up with in 2020. https://t.co/iESxAuIOEX
@jonwu_ There’s also been decades (2000–2010) where the returns were
S&P was ~0.91x / –1% IRR
QQQ was ~0.50x / –6.5% IRR
FAANG didn’t exist
If allocators knew they could get 20% annually from the nasdaq they’d fully allocate to it but the futures unknown, hence diversification
@realEstateTrent I agree with the point just not the original numbers being small 😂 ….and all the power to the people with $30 mil portfolios as well…they are just even further outliers. It’s also wild to hear the stories and how much of a good deal you could get on real estate 30 years ago
I hope we find durable and scalable ways to fundamentally improve K-12 outcomes. Alpha School’s results on a small scale have been truly extraordinary and I hope at least some of the lessons and technology cross over more broadly to public schools. Ever since learning about the two sigma study I’ve thought eventually technology will replicate a lot of this in the long run.
1. Many of the best performing companies in the last few years have had improving margins (semis and memory companies) and the leading AI research labs have improved their margins considerably
2. VCs at scale have incredibly high margins (70-90%+) and distributions to LPs don't count against margins, it's an equity flow
My partner Steve Jurvetson spent his nights and weekends launching rockets. Totally obsessed.
So I told him, "Find us the best rocket company."
Three weeks later he came back.
"The best rocket company is Elon's."
My first reaction: "Isn't he supposed to be running Tesla?" We already had a big investment in Tesla, but we heard him out.
In that meeting, you could feel it. His mission in life was to make humanity multi-planetary. Tesla was a means to an end.
So we became the first money in after Elon's own $100 million and an investment from Founders Fund.
Just before we invested, the first few rockets had exploded on the launch pad.. but then a Falcon 1 lifted off and worked. It launched one small satellite for Malaysia, and then it was retired.
Falcon 9 was the true workhorse, which good customers came for later over time.
Eventually there were contracts everywhere, and Elon Musk began his journey to make us multiplanetary.
A mission like "we're going to Mars" attracts the best engineers in the world. People take a new job to solve a problem they'll tell their grandkids about.
When Kennedy said we choose to go to the moon, the technologies that came out of that effort changed everything on Earth.
Same thing is happening now. Starlink exists because Elon Musk is building to get us to Mars.
If the mission is grand enough, innovations that happen along the way will enhance and may even redefine the business.
Thanks to Bonnie Blockchain for having me on!