BradRandall

Hedge Fund Manager | Securities & Corporate Lawyer *not intended to be legal or investment advice*

[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Netflix changed consumption. AI changes output. @Trader_mcaruso: a drug discovery process compressed from 10 months to 3 means three drugs instead of one, flowing directly to the bottom line.

Full conversation: https://t.co/EQJuLdetdN
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Gingrich tried lowering COLA openly, AARP blocked it. He went through the BLS instead, no vote needed. @kurtsaltrichter: CPI methodology has been adjusted since, and it understates inflation.

Full conversation: https://t.co/h3mOqUXGlQ
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Headlines are priced in. Schwab's best-performing accounts belonged to deceased clients. @kurtsaltrichter: stick to your strategy when it isn't working. That's the argument, not buy and hold.

Full conversation: https://t.co/h3mOqUXGlQ
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Bitcoin likely put in a short-term bottom, most hated asset class right now. International has driven most of @kurtsaltrichter's returns this year. Japan and Singapore are where he's looking.

Full conversation: https://t.co/h3mOqUXGlQ
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Standard asset allocation failed in 2022. @kurtsaltrichter blends quant, macro, and intermarket strategies. Things moving in different directions make being wrong across the whole book hard.

Full conversation: https://t.co/h3mOqUXGlQ
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Lehman chart: down every day from summer 2007. After Bear Stearns, clients told employees directly: we're shorting your stock. @dailydirtnap on what the unraveling looked like from inside.

Full conversation: https://t.co/zmW5XtI8rj
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Trading ETFs mid-2000s: Jared Dillian compares it to the long bond in the 80s. Heart pounding 20 times a day. @dailydirtnap on why smartwatches would have made an already brutal job worse.

Full conversation: https://t.co/zmW5XtI8rj
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Remove AI capex and the US is in recession. @dailydirtnap on what markets aren't pricing: Putin lost a million soldiers, stopped appearances, holed up in the Kremlin. Ukraine is winning.

Full conversation: https://t.co/zmW5XtI8rj
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

AI, semis, tech: done. Banks and industrials holding the index. @dailydirtnap on financials sell signals: a 10% drop puts the S&P at 6,800. Closer to the end of this move than the beginning.

Full conversation: https://t.co/zmW5XtI8rj
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Two months of work in a day. The risk: AI optimizes for what it thinks you want. @NikLentz on how a better win rate ends up in the code, and why domain knowledge is what catches it.

Full conversation: https://t.co/CIoFHYTbkt
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

A system only works if you swing when it signals. @NikLentz bought tariff lows while everyone said it was over. Also lost 10% the next day doing the same. Both are correct executions.

Full conversation: https://t.co/CIoFHYTbkt
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Strong start in equities, but @NikLentz wanted to trade macro and global events. Spent years on currencies and bonds. The niche he was looking for took him somewhere different.

Full conversation: https://t.co/CIoFHYTbkt
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Medical school dropout, professional fighter, first real money in 2008. @NikLentz was holding cash while everyone around him went broke. Accidental timing, consequential entry point.

Full conversation: https://t.co/CIoFHYTbkt
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Asset labels don't predict correlation under stress. @NikLentz builds diversification at the system level: 10 to 15 non-correlated trading systems running simultaneously.

Full conversation: https://t.co/CIoFHYTbkt
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

@GestaltU on AI in advanced research: it empowers experts to go further, but gives novices the illusion of expertise. If you don't know which assumptions to question, the AI won't tell you.

Full episode: https://t.co/soM6aOn3wW

More at: https://t.co/xMfju4cM9N

[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

2022 was technically a bear market. @GestaltU on why it wasn't: no credit spread widening, no vol curve inversion, no default risk. An inflation scare produces different stress than 2002 or 2008.

Full conversation: https://t.co/soM6aOn3wW
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

A trading group wanted a roadmap. I don't have one. Nobody does. @GestaltU and I on why directional forecasts are for TV, and why Buffett's actual philosophy has nothing to do with prediction.

Full episode: https://t.co/soM6aOn3wW
More at: https://t.co/xMfju4cM9N

[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

Investors want diversification. Ask them to sell stocks to fund it and excuses follow. @GestaltU stopped asking. Alternatives go on top of the existing portfolio. Same outcome, none of the friction.

Full conversation: https://t.co/soM6aOn3wW
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

GameStop: positioning, not fundamentals. LTCM: broke on a correct trade because of crowded positioning elsewhere. @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt builds his framework around the other side of crowded trades.

Full conversation: https://t.co/xeXadwwrp2
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[BradRandall @ABradleyRandall]

AI adds little for markets everyone covers. @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt on where it earns its place: markets nobody covers on Bloomberg. What's driving coffee? Vary the prompts, treat it as a starting point.

Full conversation: https://t.co/xeXadwwrp2
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