Straits Taylor Rule:
i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0
Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)
You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.
Stay unanchored !
I have an announcement. Effective immediately, I have been appointed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the 1st head of marketing in US Treasury history. As my first act, we are launching a new campaign immediately. See below. Interested in your feedback.
Oh my!!! This is the worst breakup ever.
Stan Druckenmiller (Bessent’s long term friend and partner) isn’t happy with the treasury intervention…anybody with two brains knows what they’re doing with Japan and the bond market isn’t working and not going to work…even the legend
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."
"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."
"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."
"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."
https://t.co/Xe8Vi38WiI
Things that really make me “Get” America:
- Land grant university ice cream
- Fried Okra
- Baseball
- Talking to eccentric immigrants
- National Parks
- Finding a good diner on a road trip
- Any beach in New England
- Cheap beer
- Kayaks
- Tom Waits
hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final
((1+xy)^3 z + y^2 (1+xy) (4+3xy), y + 3 x (1+xy)^2 z + 3 x y^2 (4+3xy), 2 x - 3 x^2 y - x^3 z): \C^3\to \C^3, has jacobian determinant -2, and sends (0, 0, -1/4), (1, -3/2, 13/2), and (-1, 3/2, 13/2) to (-1/4, 0, 0)
Increasing sexual frequency in a regular relationship from once a month to once a week delivers a happiness boost equivalent to the happiness gain from a roughly $50,000 annual salary raise.
More sex = monotonically higher happiness: The effect got larger with frequency. Sex 2–3 times a month, weekly, 2–3 times a week, and 4+ times a week all showed positive associations relative to no sex or very rare sex. Having sex at least 4 times a week was linked to a happiness increase roughly half the size of the marriage effect on happiness.
The happiness-maximizing number of sexual partners in the previous year was calculated as one. Zero partners or multiple partners both correlated with LOWER happiness than monogamous frequency with a single partner.
Money does not buy more sex or more partners. Higher family income had essentially zero correlation with sexual frequency or number of partners. Rich and poor Americans reported very similar sex lives. (This was one of the findings that surprised the researchers.)
Married people had significantly more sex than single, divorced, widowed, or separated people. Roughly 90% of married respondents reported exactly one partner in the past year. Marriage itself had one of the LARGEST positive coefficients in the happiness equations.
Typical American frequency was modest. The median person had sex 2–3 times a month. About 25% reported no sex in the previous year (higher among older women). Only about 7% reported 4+ times a week.
Paying for sex or having extramarital sex was associated with LOWER happiness. Homosexuality had no statistically significant effect on happiness in their equations. Highly educated women tended to have fewer partners.
In a time of declining marriage rates, falling sexual frequency among young adults, rising loneliness, and cultural messaging that endless novelty and “options” are the path to fulfillment, the data points the other way. The people reporting the HIGHEST happiness were disproportionately those having consistent sex with exactly one partner.
* This is a correlational pattern across 16,000+ people.
FINANCIAL GRAVITY:
If we divide the S&P 500 by the fed’s balance sheet, the line is basically flat since 2008.
The correlation coefficient between central bank quantitative easing and the price of stock indexes is nearly 1.
The money printed by the Fed, because of the structure of the Open Market Operations, is plugged directly into the Treasury markets, and from there, flows into equities and derivatives.
This has served to primarily enrich the asset owners, financial institutions, and wealthy elites who own the majority of the stock market anyways.
The entire rally has been an illusion, financed by the Fed and maintained through QE.
"And we will measure our businesses on ARR!"
"What does the A stand for, sir?"
"Annual!"
"So customers committed to annual contracts in this glorious future, sir?"