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@AccuroResearch MACRO STRATEGY & CAPITAL INTELLIGENCE

Our intelligence arm focuses strictly on empirical data, capital structure mechanics, and macro liquidity inflections.

Macro analysis built on research, not narrative. We track what actually transmits.

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Cerebras' inference growth is real; operating profit is still a target. Q3 GAAP revenue rose 55%, but GAAP operating margin was -106%. FY core revenue guidance is $940m-$960m. #AI Positive sentiment 3.5/5: next quarter's core margin guide straddles break-even.

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China's bank-credit pulse is weaker than total funding. Rounded PBOC figures imply October yuan lending fell about CNY100bn, while social-financing stock grew 7.2% y/y. #China #Macro Negative sentiment 3.5/5: bank lending contracted, broader credit did not.

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Crude balances are easing faster than diesel. The #IEA now sees a 4Q oil surplus after forecasting a deficit last month, but on-land stocks remain scarce. #Macro Mixed sentiment 3.7/5: October's inventory gain was driven by barrels on water.

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Mirendil confirms a $1bn Series A led by Kleiner Perkins and Clearlake, with Google among participants. No valuation disclosed. #AI #VentureCapital Positive sentiment 3.7/5: major funding is reaching research-tool challengers, not only established frontier labs.

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US yields keep tightening the backdrop. Treasury's Nov12 par curve puts the 2y at 4.86% (+13bp) and 10y at 5.10% (+12bp) vs Nov10, its previous observation. #Treasuries #Macro Negative sentiment 3.4/5: front-end pressure is outpacing the long bond.

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The #AI trade has more than one balance sheet. Cisco's revenue grew 24% and its FY27 hyperscaler AI revenue outlook rose to $9bn. Applied Materials' revenue grew 53%, with next-quarter sales guided to $11.1bn. Networking and chipmaking equipment still show growth.

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Cheaper oil isn't a one-way trade. Supply-risk headlines outweighed inventory builds, trimming the recent inflation relief. The attacks remain claims, not verified lost barrels. #Brent settled at $95.82, up 3.3%; WTI at $88.74, up 2.6%.

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Nvidia's leadership shock hasn't shut the private-capital window. Agile Robots raised $500m at $8.5bn; UFORCE raised $700m at $6bn. Different businesses, same funding signal: #AI capital is still reaching robots and autonomous systems, with $1.2bn across two rounds.

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Nvidia's succession risk is no longer a rumour. Huang has resigned, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and keeps the finance role. The board promises continuity; a permanent search begins. #AI now has a new leadership test at its main chip supplier.

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Asia's #AI rebound ran out of breadth. Nvidia's CEO outcome is still unconfirmed, but supply-chain selling is real: Taiwan closed -2.63%, TSMC -2.30%, Hong Kong tech about -2.4%. Domestic Chinese chipmakers held up while Alibaba lost nearly 7%.

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Japan's wholesale inflation rose to 7.1% in October, above the 6.5% forecast. Producer prices are not CPI. #BOJ's Asada warns about the delayed cost of past hikes. The squeeze is between imported costs and soft demand, not a clean demand boom. Yen-based import prices rose 24.8%.

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#Nvidia's risk is shifting from an investigation to succession. Reuters reports the board is weighing Jensen Huang's future. That is not a confirmed exit or a breach finding. Wednesday's rebound closed before these reports. Leadership uncertainty is back in the #AI trade.

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The #AI rebound has a closing print now: Nasdaq +1.6%, S&P 500 +1.3%, #CoreWeave +24.7%. That is a vote for demand, not a clean bill of health for financing. Nvidia joined the rally, but the Dow gained only 0.5%. This was a tech-led rebound, not a uniform risk surge.

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#Torus announced $500m in growth capital for modular #AI infrastructure. The bet is to bring inference compute to spare power on existing grid connections. Funding is confirmed. The 12-16 week deployment claim is not proof that the grid bottleneck is solved.

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British #AI hardware has a new funding signal. #Fractile's Series C tops GBP500m, with Sovereign AI and the British Business Bank participating. That is the whole round, not the public cheque. Its first commercial chip is still planned for next year.

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The power story has real orders behind it. #SiemensEnergy ended FY2026 with a EUR164bn backlog and guides to 14%-16% revenue growth in FY2027. But backlog is not cash: Q4 cash flow benefited from customer advances and reservation fees.

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The #AI funding story is not all chips and data centers. #Mercor announced a $750m round at a $20bn valuation for enterprise evals and post-training. The round includes an employee tender. The split between employee liquidity and fresh company cash is undisclosed.

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#Nvidia's board has hired independent counsel, not announced a finding. Governance risk is real; a breach is not established. Tuesday's close showed the split: NVDA fell about 5.5% while the Nasdaq lost 0.7%.

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#CoreWeave's demand is real. Funding risk is too. Q3 revenue hit $3.66bn and FY guidance rose to $13.0-$13.3bn. But capex is now guided at $37-$39bn, with $1.05-$1.15bn of Q4 interest expense. Backlog is not cash.

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A cooling jobs market is not automatically disinflation. #BoE's Lombardelli sees a likely case for another near-term hike unless inflation pressures weaken. This is her conditional view, not an MPC decision. Lower hiring may do less to cool wages.