little fish

Cypherpunk. Investor, not a trader. Digital art collector. Web3.
free speech. free economy. building value.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@CryptoWatcherOG Very smart decision.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

$RAIN is the uniswap of prediction markets.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@ToschDev Its a prediction markets protocol.

When prediction markets go mainstream, $RAIN could become the core infrastructure for the whole sector.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@bitget $RAIN. List it already!

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@CoinMarketCap $RAIN did it

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@Web3InsiderGuy They actually have a burn mechanism, 2.5% of the volume buys and burns $RAIN tokens.

That's why the token goes up and that's why the coming world cup will be crazy for this token.

In the long term the number of tokens will go down dramatically.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

This protocol must be on your watchlist $RAIN

33% up today

The world cup will make this boom

https://t.co/MIBnFaLsyu

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@Rain__Protocol @Polymarket @Kalshi Someone's getting ready to the world cup 👀

[Rain @Rain__Protocol]

Rain has officially entered the global Top 3 for prediction market TVL, trailing only @Polymarket and @Kalshi, following a massive $100M liquidity injection by the Rain Foundation ahead of the World Cup.

The allocation consists of $50M in USDT and $50M in $RAIN, flowing directly into the smart contract to deeply capitalize our prediction markets, back liquidity, tighten spreads, and support high-volume trading.

For traders, this means unmatched depth and minimal slippage. For builders, it provides a highly capitalized environment to launch custom prediction apps, and for market makers, this is the ultimate signal that the liquidity and infrastructure are ready for scale.

Funds are being deployed right now. Track the live data and metrics here: https://t.co/NipgmU4IYq

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@scottmelker That's HUGH! $ENLV

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@Enlivex Omg that's crazy

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

Did @Tyga just tweeted about @Rain__Protocol? 👀

[T-Raww @Tyga]

What’s this rain site about ? You make Predictions and make money ?

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@Tyga Make it $RAIN!

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

That's beautiful

[Rain @Rain__Protocol]

Prediction Market Builders want more - and now, they’re finally getting it.

The Rain Builder Program is live, with the first prediction market SDK built for AI agents. We’re moving past the era where "building" just meant skinning someone else's data. Rain is giving you the infrastructure to launch and own your own end-to-end platforms from day one.

Our SDK provides the tools and resources to handle the entire lifecycle: public or private market creation, manual or AI Oracle resolution, dispute processes, and more. You aren't just promoting trades anymore - you're running the engine.

Specifically for the agent-led future, our SDK is ready for @AnthropicAI Claude Code, @NousResearch Hermes, @OpenClaw, @OpenAI Codex, @ManusAI, and more.

It's time to build: https://t.co/cIygSySNz7

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

Why machine-to-machine payments are the new electricity for the digital age https://t.co/e2rmsJfGEr

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@HernanArber @Rain__Protocol @CoinMarketCap What you're missing is that the top 200 on @CoinMarketCap is a closed list and to get in there they will need to list them there.

In terms of market cap rain is probably top 50 but because it's a closed list the odds are low.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

@Rain__Protocol @arbitrum That's not funny any more, I've put money on YES @arbitrum, in 2 days I'm gonna lose my money because you don't follow the biggest project that's on your chain, I really hope it's a joke and you're gonna follow before this market ends!

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

JUST IN: $ENLV ANNOUNCES A $212M DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY ALLOCATION INTO $RAIN, THE PREDICTION MARKETS PROTOCOL. FORMER ITALIAN PM @MATTEORENZI JOINS THE BOARD.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

If you think that in 3 years $BTC all time high would still be $126K you're stupid.

Buy the dip.

[little fish @AdamMetaverse]

Rain is the only pure prediction protocol.

Fees solve wash trading and empowers a real P2P system.

2.5% buys and burns $RAIN token

[Nick Preszler @NickPreszler]

Does Polymarket have wash trading? I read the paper so you don't have to.

Here are the highlights (my takes are at the end):

1. An estimated 25% of Polymarket's volume all-time resembles wash trading.

- Reached a high of 60% of total weekly exchange volume in December 2024
- Reached a low of 5% of volume in May 2025
- 14% of wallets on the platform were flagged

Volume by Category:
Crypto - 3%
Politics - 12%
Elections - 17%
Sports - 45%

2. Wash trading activity has spiked in anticipation of the $POLY token

After the Polymarket token was teased on October 8th, daily volume jumped up substantially. In that same time, the amount of wash trading identified also rose.

3. Most volume was done on low-value, low probability contracts.

The center chart depicting the Average buy/sell price shows the majority of wash trading happens in contracts that are near $0. This is a common strategy that allows users to get a high notional volume without risking much money.

If a user buys 1000 contracts that are worth .1c ($0.001) each, they are spending $1. But because each contract can resolve to $1, the the notional value of the contracts they traded is $1000.

There are many legitimate trading strategies that can be done in low probability outcomes, but if you're an airdrop farmer who is optimizing for notional volume, this is the place to be.

My takes:

1. Thats it?

25% of the volume being from wash trading means 75% of the billions of dollars transacted on Polymarket are real users taking real positions.

2. Fees solve all

What matters isn't how much volume is on your platform, but how much volume is monetizable. Right now there is no cost to trading. Once fees are implemented, the ratio of real volume to farming volume will improve.

A fee of almost any size on low value contracts would eliminate that strategy immediately, addressing a large portion of this volume.

3. Headlines make it seem worse than it is

Maybe crypto has poisoned my view on this, but typically wash trading is done as a deliberate attempt to massively overstate volume by a malicious team. There's no indication the polymarket team was the one creating this volume or asking others to do this volume. Beyond that, polymarket's volume could be 75% of what it is today and the market's interpretation of their success would likely be unchanged.

When there is an incentive to get volume, users will attempt to get volume. Every platform has some form of incentive for volume either via points/token or direct rebates for providing liquidity that help improve the experience for real users on the platform.

Overall, wash trading of course is an issue and should not be considered when calculating a platform's volume. But most people's kneejerk reaction to the headlines will probably overstate the size of polymarket's issue in particular.

Outstanding questions:

How should volume on prediction markets be calculated?

Wash trading and volume farming should be excluded, but its difficult to identify them with a high degree of certainty.

More importantly, is notional volume the right way to calculate it?

As an industry I believe notional volume should be replaced by considering the real amount of money a user is transacting, not the potential value of their contracts.

I'd love to hear your reactions to the paper and your thoughts on how volume on prediction markets can be calculated more accurately.