🚨 NEW EDGE UNLOCKED: ABS CHALLENGE DATA 🚨
While most bettors are focused on ERA, xERA, weather, and line movement, we’ve started building an ABS (Automated Ball-Strike Challenge) layer into our MLB model.
And the results are already showing patterns.
📊 LEAGUE-WIDE
Batters win only 47% of challenges
Fielding teams win 58%
Overall overturn rate is 53%
The strike zone currently favors pitchers and defenses.
🥷 ELITE CATCHERS (K PROP BOOSTERS)
Carson Kelly (CHC) — 86%
Salvador Perez (KC) — 76%
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) — 74%
Dillon Dingler (DET) — 73%
Pedro Pagés (STL) — 68%
Will Smith (LAD) — 65%
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) — 64%
These guys are literally stealing strikes back through challenges.
📈 BEST HITTING TEAMS AT WINNING CHALLENGES
Astros — 59%
Athletics — 59%
Royals — 59%
Rangers — 56%
Marlins — 54%
Mets — 51%
Blue Jays — 51%
These lineups are protecting themselves from bad strike calls better than the rest of baseball.
🚨 WORST HITTING TEAMS
Brewers — 31%
Red Sox — 35%
Braves — 36%
Guardians — 38%
Mariners — 41%
Rockies — 41%
Pirates — 41%
📈 BEST INDIVIDUAL BATTERS
CJ Abrams — 7/7 (100%)
Aaron Judge — 6/8 (75%)
Xander Bogaerts — 8/11 (73%)
Jose Altuve — 9/13 (69%)
Kyle Schwarber — 9/14 (64%)
Pete Alonso — 5/8 (63%)
🚩 BIG NAMES LOSING THE ZONE BATTLE
Gunnar Henderson — 14%
Matt Olson — 17%
James Wood — 21%
Jazz Chisholm — 20%
Oneil Cruz — 20%
Bryce Harper — 27%
Shohei Ohtani — 33%
📊 BEST DEFENSIVE TEAMS
Tigers — 73%
Reds — 72%
Cubs — 71%
Cardinals — 67%
Rangers — 67%
Diamondbacks — 65%
Padres — 63%
Dodgers — 62%
HOW WE’RE USING IT:
✅ K Props → Upgrade when elite catchers + strong ABS teams are involved
✅ Walk Props → Downgrade when poor ABS hitters face elite challenge teams
✅ NRFI → Slight boost when command pitchers pair with elite defensive challenge teams
This won’t replace Statcast.
It won’t replace pitch mix analysis.
But if two bets are close, ABS may be the difference between a pass and a play.
The market is still pricing ERA.
We’re starting to price the strike zone.
#GamblingX #MLB
Seahawks repeating isn't crazy. ~90% of the roster is back, Darnold's only getting more comfortable, JSN is a legit WR1, Kupp adds veteran savvy, and the defense is elite. The OC change is a fair concern - Fleury is a first-time play caller - but he inherits a system that works and doesn't need to reinvent it. If Seattle wins the West and locks up home-field, Lumen in January is a nightmare for anyone. Why can't they hoist it again? In Macdonald I trust...
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