NBA Betting With Fiddle

NBA Sharp Betting Live Streams Mon-Thurs, 11AM ET with @FiddlesPicks (follow me there). I review every actionable NBA line and +EV player props from 5 books

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

NBA FANS AND BETTORS - Subscribe to our daily NBA show YouTube Channel.

Live Monday-Friday at 10am ET reviewing sharp approaches to every side and total.

Consistently beat the market and proven winner.

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[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

TALK TO ME! What do you like on the Thursday 6 game NBA slate?

I am on a heater! I have 5 bets in already and of course looking for more.

I will respond to every comment hint where my action is and where lines may move. All my picks first sent to whop group.

As always when betting overnights, THE GOAL IS TO GET +CLV AND BEAT THE MARKET MOVES!

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

🏀 NBA Best Bets Wednesday April 1st 🏀

PHI @ WAS Ov 238.5 (0.5u)
ATL @ ORL Un 234.5 (0.5u)
BOS Celtics -4.5 (-115, 0.5u)
MEM Grizzlies +15.5 (0.5u)
MIL @ HOU Ov 216.5 (0.5u)
SAS @ GSW Ov 225.5 (0.5u)

Good luck on all your bets!
Sign up for the WHOP group to get access to all picks in real time.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday, March 31st 🏀

PHX Suns +2.5 (-105, 0.5U)
PHX Suns ML (+120, 0.25U)
PHX @ ORL Over 223.5 (0.5U)
Parlay: PHX/ORL o224.5 + NYK.HOU u219.5 (+264, 0.25U)
NYK @ HOU Under 218.5 (-108, 0.25U)
Parlay: NYK/HOU u218.5 + CLE/LAL o235.5 (+264, 0.25U)
CLE @ LAL Over 235.5 (-112, 0.25U)
LA Clippers -4.5 (0.5U)

Good luck on all your bets!
Sign up for the WHOP group to get access to all picks in real time.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

Dillon Brooks has 2 personal fouls and a tech in his first 89 seconds back from injury.

Like he never left 😂😂😂

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA AWARDS KEY DATES:

Here is when each award was named and bets paid out last year

April 22 2025: 6th Man of the Year
April 23 2025: Clutch Player of the Year
April 24 2025: Defensive Player of the Year
April 29 2025: Rookie of the Year
May 5 2025: Coach of the Year
May 21 2025: Most Valuable Player

This is important info when projecting how long a bet will be pending and the xROI related to placing NBA futures.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

Here are all the plays/messages I sent out to whop group for NBA Friday.

Cavs -4.5 (0.75u)
Mavs @ Blazers Ov 235.5 (0.75u)
Mavs ML + Mavs/Blazers Ov 235.5 (+700 0.25u)
Wizards @ Warriors Under 233.5 (0.5u)
Bulls @ OKC Ov 235.5 (-114, 0.25u)
Pelicans @ Raptors Ov 228.5 (0.25u)

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

+700 +EV SGP tomorrow?!?!

In it to win it. 0.25u to win 1.75u

Hopefully a bankroll booster just as much as it an algorithm booster on this parlay obsessed platform lol (I think these can both close +CLV and be +EV - I'll do the math tomorrow at close).

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

🏀Everything You Need To Know for NBA Thursday- A complete guide to a 3 game slate 🏀

Quick announcement: NBA Betting With Fiddle livestream Thursday is POSTPONED! Since it only a 3 game slate, I will review everything in this post and move the show to Saturday morning at 11am ET instead. I hope you guys can tune in for that.

Here we go - a full breakdown of all 3 NBA Thursday games which include schedule splits, projected injury reports, my price forecasting, actionable analysis and player prop looks. I am on a 5 day win streak going for 6; let’s get down on it!

New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons

Schedule:
Pelicans on 1 day rest
Pistons on 3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd leg of a back to back + Wednesday night game went to overtime (yikes).

Injury Report:
Pistons: Marcus Sasser, Isaiah Stewart, Bryce McGowens (ALL OUT)
Pelicans: Trey Murphy, Dejounte Murray Questionable
*Unreported but Fiddle projected: Tobias Harris (hip), Jalen Duren (knee) are going to be downgraded to questionable tomorrow

Price Forecasting:
Current Market Consensus: Spread Pistons -5, Total 226
Fiddle’s Price Forecasting: Pistons -4.5, Total 226.5

Actionable Analysis:
Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris were upgraded from questionable to active Wednesday night dealing with the knee and hip respectively. Now on a 3rd game in 4 nights, the second leg of a back to back where the first game went to OT, I definitely expect them to land back on the injury report throughout the day Thursday. On the Pelicans side, Trey Murphy and Dejounte are both listed questionable but both finished last game and I expect them to play and are primarily priced as IN based on current lines. For the Pelicans this is the front leg of a B2B before they travel to Toronto for a road game there on Friday. If they both are active on Thursday, Dejounte will definitely miss Friday and Murphy likely does too.

I price this game at Pelicans +6.1, but the adjustment to +4.5 above factors in a projection that Harris and Duren land on the injury report tomorrow and are probably worth a collective 3.5 points. The Pistons might be incredibly thin tomorrow and almost throw in the towel for this game, off an overtime game already missing Cade Cunningham and Beef Stew, and possibly getting Tobi and JD added to that tomorrow. The Pistons have a 4 game lead on 1st place with 10 games remaining, their seeding is likely still very secure.

I did action in the whop group a Pelicans +6 ATS, as well as Pelicans +6 parlayed with the side I am on in the Knicks @ Hornets game. I had a feeling there would be a market push because the Pistons vs Hawks game went to overtime. The lesson here: if a team goes to overtime while having the game the next night already priced, bet it quick because its going to move. No one in market is rushing to bet Pistons as they head to overtime. Risk of injury remains, risk of resting a player increases. Its a asymmetric one sided market where you are going to gain CLV on the rested team 95% of the time or higher. You can figure out whether you want to dump the CLV (via opening a middle or selling it at profit) or ride it later, but grab the position so you have good options on your hands. Right now Pelicans +6 is already able to middle with some Pistons -4.5 in market (or the corresponding ML would give more room and still be a negative value hold).

If I was betting it right now with a blank slate- still Pelicans or nothing. And maybe delve into the prop market early to look for upside scoring and stat props on players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed who will get increased usage.

Player Props To Consider Actioning Right Now:
Caris Levert Ov 9.5 Points + Reb (+102 Bet365)
Kevin Huerter Ov 7.5 Points (+100 Bet365)

** Caris Levert 20+ Points longshot +1800, Ausar Thompson 10+ Reb (+850) definitely worth looks as well. I normally hate these longshot ladder plays but if you can front injury news and target guys who will get usage spikes its very good.

*Both the Levert and Huerter props were released in whop at 0.25u. I always say skip props if you are concerned with limits, feel free to double them otherwise. Parlaying them a good sharp disguise as well.

Whop Plays from this game:
Pelicans +6 (-110, 0.5u)
Levert Ov 9.5 Points + Reb (+102, 0.25u)
Huerter Ov 7.5 Points (+100, 0.25u)
Pelicans +6 & Hornets +1 Parlay (+257, 0.25u)

New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets

Schedule: both teams on 1 days rest, no B2B or 3 in 4 spots.

Injury Report:
Knicks: OUT- Landry Shamet, Duece McBride
Hornets: OUT- Tidjane Salaun (his sister in the WNBA is better than him, this is a Reggie Miller/Cheryl Miller 2.0 situation). QUES - Pat Connaughton

Price Forecasting:
Current Market Consensus: Hornets -1, Total 223
Fiddle’s Price Forecasting: Hornets -1.6, Total 225.5

Actionable Analysis:
The market for the game total has already risen at some open, hit a resistance point and started dropping back down. Some books opened at 222.5, rose to 224.5, and now are settling around 223/223.5. When I see that, despite my number being higher, I do not rush to place a bet on the over - I likely just stay away. It’s an over or nothing for me, and right now I am still nothing there.

As for the spread, I definitely played and released the Hornets +1.5 (-120) and +1 (-115) in parlays where good Pelicans prices were. The +1.5 vs +1 is worth about 6cents, so the -115 line is just 1cent of value worse than the +1.5 (-120). Normally I have a rule about only parlaying when I think high likelihood of +CLV on all the tickets, and being able to pair best numbers in market together. Rules always have reasons to be broken tho, and seeing big asymmetry in the Pelicans spot, I forewent the best in market rule at simply 1cent worse value on Hornets ATS.

I still think Hornets ML is actionable. There is a -112 at BetRivers, and plenty of -115s in market. All are a go for me, and better prices than the spreads using the same value shifts of the +1 being worth about 6cents. An NBA game landing on the #1 is the 11th most common NBA outcome, thus not a key number, and here you are trading information for a slightly worse price. The information is that the Hornets are very clearly the early market side based on line moves thus far. I bet it projecting that, I was right, so I got the best value there was (go me- this is my strong suit). But if I am showing up blank slate, I am still actioning Hornets ML and considering an OVER if I see this start to creep back up.

Player Props To Consider Actioning Right Now:
Brandon Miller 2+ Steals (+220 FanDuel)
Mitchell Robinson Double Double (+1020 DraftKings)
LaMelo Ball Triple Double (+6100 DraftKings)
Kon Knueppel Ov 24.5 PRA (-120 Bet365)
Miles Bridges Ov 1.5 3PM (+110 Bet365)
Jalen Brunson Under 7.5 Ast (-112 Bet365)

Whop Plays from this game:
Hornets +1.5 (-120, 0.5u)
Hornets +1 (-115) & Pelicans +6 Parlay (+257, 0.25u)

Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic

Schedule:
Kings: 1 Day Rest
Magic: 3rd Game in 4 Nights, but coming off the 1 rest day with the B2B being Monday/Tuesday

Injury Report:
Kings (yikes): OUT - Domas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Russel Westbrook, Keegan Murray, DeAndre Hunter, Drew Eubanks, Nique Clifford. QUES - Precious Achiuwa, Killain Hayes

Magic (yikes as well): OUT- Franz Wagner, Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac. QUES - Jalen Suggs

Price Forecasting:
Current Market Consensus: Magic -15.5, Game Total 230.5
Fiddle’s Price Forecasting: Magic -15, Game Total 230.5

Actionable Analysis:

I love being this bang on with pricing games. I am half a point off the spread (on a low value number of 15), and spot on with the total. I have no plays on this game myself. My LEANS would be Kings ATS and the over, because it tightens more than it lengths if Suggs is OUT again, and Jalen Suggs history shows questionable might actually just mean doubtful (he and Joel Embiid are captains of the Questionable means Doubtful All Stars).

Of course- lean is a curse word where I come from. LEANS in the betting content space are a free roll for the creator. Leans HIT - bang even my LEANS were right. Leans LOSE - good thing that was only a lean. I will do none of that 💩. You read what you read, you’ll never see me recap a lean. I didn’t bet it. That was the final say in terms of my own action.

Player Props To Consider Actioning Right Now:
Desmond Bane 2+ Steals (+174 DraftKings, +162 FanDuel)
Tristan Da Silva 2+ Steals (+220 FanDuel)
Paolo Banchero Triple Double (+1900 FanDuel)
Wendell Carter Jr Double Double (+389 DraftKings)
Wendell Carter Jr Ov 9.5 Reb + Ast (-125 DraftKings)
Devin Carter Ov 23.5 PRA (-112 Bet365)

Whop Plays from this game:
Wendell Carter Jr Double Double +389 (0.2u to win 0.778u DK)

If you want to access to all of my picks in real-time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to check out the store page.

In addition to my plays, there are also a bunch of betting resources available in the group as well. They include: NBA Market Ratings Updated 3x per week, NBA Schedule Grid displaying rest spots for every game, a coded bet tracker to help track your CLV efficiency metrics (including my updated in real time tracker), Key Numbers charts for NBA sides, WNBA sides, and NFL sides and totals to know the outcome frequency of individual numbers, a spread to moneyline conversion table for the NBA and NFL - with implied probabilities in percentages for people using betting exchanges.

The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month for any/every losing month. The group has been active for 19 months, and it has happened 4 times. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space.

The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume. I send out close to 150 bets per month during the NBA regular season, and close to 80% end up ahead of the market.

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

🏀 NBA Best Bets Wednesday, March 25th 🏀

ATL @ DET Over 226.5 (0.5U)
OKC @ BOS Over 217.5 (0.75U)
BOS Celtics ML (+120, 0.25U)
MIA @ CLE Over 242 (0.25U)
LA Clippers -3.5 (-105, 1U)
Jalen Johnson Over 6.5 Asts (-135, 0.25U)
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 Reb + Asts (0.25U)
Kevin Durant Over 28.5 Pts + Asts (-112, 0.25U)
Reed Sheppard 14+ Points (-122, 0.25U)

Good luck on all your bets!
Sign up for the WHOP group to get access to all picks in real time.

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA Betting With Fiddle: Monday, March 23rd https://t.co/hXWASGT8uy

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks @JayMoneyIsMoney

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA Betting With @FiddlesPicks with Special Guest, @JayMoneyIsMoney: Thursday, March 19th https://t.co/S1vcDClib9

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@RantingJohnson @FiddlesPicks

[Drew Johnson @RantingJohnson]

NBA Betting With @FiddlesPicks and @RantingJohnson: Tuesday, March 17th https://t.co/xBd5Xp3DIR

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks @RantingJohnson

[NBA Betting With Fiddle @AdvantageSBP]

@FiddlesPicks @JayMoneyIsMoney

[Michael Fiddle @FiddlesPicks]

NBA Betting With @FiddlesPicks and Special Guest, @JayMoneyIsMoney: Wednesday, March 11th https://t.co/FkuPxQCAGL