American Elections Analysis

Hello, I'm AEA. Here you'll find content on data, polling, predictions, election models, & forecasting, as well my takes on elections across the United States.

[The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1]

🚨Report: Three U.S. Navy aircraft carriers will be deployed to the Middle East within the next 24 hours which is the most since the 2003 Iraq War

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: New York City Democratic Socialists vote 291–123 to officially “urge” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to enter the 2028 presidential race.

[Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1]

MS NOW: Democrat Mary Peltola now leads by 11,213 votes. She's just under the 50% threshold — at 49.9% of the vote total with 97% of the vote in.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Former Vice President Mike Pence says Republicans lost the midterms because President Trump paused military strikes against Iran.

“I think the overwhelming majority of the American people supported Operation Epic Fury… I don’t think it’s opposition to the war like many of the voices on the populist right [claim].”

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

🔵 News - Sen. John Fetterman declared himself a 'pro data center Democrat.'

[Conservative War Machine @WarMachineRR]

President Trump on whether he is changing his deportation policy:

“No. We have a very strong deportation policy. There is no amnesty.”

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

VoteHub: Mary Peltola (D) wins Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, defeating Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)

🟦Democratic flip

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

And that’s a wrap for Senate control after November: 56-44 D

Democrats flip 9 US Senate seats.

🟦Alaska (Trump +13.13)
🟦Kansas (Trump +16.12)
🟦Iowa (Trump +13.21)
🟦Maine (Harris +6.94)
🟦Mississippi (Trump +22.89)
🟦North Carolina (Trump +3.21)
🟦Ohio (Trump +11.21)
🟦South Carolina (+17.87)
🟦Texas (Trump +13.68)

[Infodex @infodexx]

🇺🇸 White Population by State in the US:

1. Maine — 90.10%
2. West Virginia — 90.10%
3. Vermont — 89.90%
4. New Hampshire — 87.50%
5. Montana — 84.60%
6. Wyoming — 84.30%
7. Iowa — 84.20%
8. North Dakota — 82.50%
9. Kentucky — 82.50%
10. Idaho — 81.70%
11. South Dakota — 80.50%
12. Wisconsin — 79.90%
13. Utah — 78.60%
14. Missouri — 77.80%
15. Nebraska — 77.70%
16. Indiana — 76.70%
17. Minnesota — 76.70%
18. Ohio — 76.60%
19. Kansas — 75.90%
20. Pennsylvania — 74.00%
21. Oregon — 73.90%
22. Michigan — 73.80%
23. Tennessee — 72.30%
24. Colorado — 70.40%
25. Rhode Island — 69.70%
26. Arkansas — 68.90%
27. Massachusetts — 67.90%
28. Washington — 65.20%
29. Alabama — 64.70%
30. Oklahoma — 64.60%
31. Connecticut — 64.50%
32. South Carolina — 63.60%
33. North Carolina — 61.40%
34. Illinois — 60.70%
35. Virginia — 59.80%
36. Alaska — 59.60%
37. Delaware — 59.30%
38. Arizona — 58.30%
39. Louisiana — 56.70%
40. Mississippi — 55.60%
41. Florida — 55.50%
42. New York — 55.10%
43. New Jersey — 53.50%
44. Georgia — 50.30%
45. Nevada — 49.80%
46. Maryland — 47.90%
47. Texas — 47.70%
48. New Mexico — 47.50%
49. California — 38.50%
50. Hawaii — 21.90%

Source: Data Pandas

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇦 Cancer patient flees Canada after being offered assisted suicide.

[Watcher Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Democrats consider raising taxes on Americans to fund multitrillion-dollar spending agenda in 2027.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

The other thing about that Duffy/Mullin presser yesterday is it didn't seem to exist in this reality where Democrats will soon have 56 Senators and ~260 Reps. Nobody wants to hear random praise of Trump. And Dems have subpoena power if the public isn't getting clear answers.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

The race for Wisconsin Treasurer was a pretty weak showing for the Democratic candidate in spite of the blue tsunami.

Only a 4 point shift blue compared to US President in 2024. Republicans having an incumbent likely helped.

[OSZ @OpenSourceZone]

Sen. Rick Scott will in New Hampshire at Dec 5th

Fuelling speculations for a presidential run for 2028

[Election Wizard @ElectionWiz]

NEW: Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa will REMOVE Greg Abbott's designation of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) as a terrorist group

[Kalshi Politics @KalshiPolitics]

BREAKING: Alexi Giannoulias has a 69% chance to win the Chicago Mayor race

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Fetterman suggests he will leave the Democratic Party if Van Hollen is elected majority leader

[American Elections Analysis @AEA_Official_X]

@AceMahogany @LeeKuanYimby Part of the subtlety of these posts is you leave out the “mayor does nothing” because his face being there makes all the implications.

[Kalshi Politics @KalshiPolitics]

BREAKING: VoteHub projects Mary Peltola to win the Alaska U.S. Senate election

[American Elections Analysis @AEA_Official_X]

@thechudda 🚨BREAKING NEWS, JUST IN:

A leprechaun was discovered on the other end of a rainbow in Vienna Austria.