Kevin A. Bryan

Assoc. Prof. of Strategy, U Toronto Rotman |
Chief Economist, CDL Toronto | Co-Founder, AllDayTA |
Ars longa, vita brevis, occasio praeceps (especially now)

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

A concerning case involving a business school professor/2006 Columbia PhD. Economy in China clearly has greatly improved standard of living over last 20 years but individual liberty is still massively constrained, and has gotten moreso under Xi.

[UnveiledChina @Unveiled_ChinaX]

A former Tsinghua University professor was dragged out of his own lecture by Chinese police after a student reported him for "singing down" the economy. Dr. Zheng Yuhuang merely pointed out that China faces 20 to 30 years of economic stagnation. Within days, his entire 16-year online presence was completely erased.

When a regime gags its top scholars instead of fixing structural crises, how can investors ever trust its numbers?

(More details in the reply section below 👇)
#CCP #China #ChinaEconomy

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

One role of strong parties or nonpartisan races (eg, city manager selection) is to elevate people who are seen internally as not being in it for themselves. Weak parties are the worst of all worlds for selecting leaders who do not maximize day to day technocratic management. 2/2

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Econ of multitasking in politics: for most highly-skilled people, entering politics lowers their pay. Those who do are either saintly policy nerds (Buttigieg reputation), or care about ideology/fame more than avg person. Opposite of "politicians are corrupt and in it for $"! 1/2

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

no, they do not.

this is actually a really important thing to understand.

normal, caring people do not seek political power for themselves.

"i might run for office someday" is at least an orange-ish flag in a potential partner.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@amy_anello I assure you, everyone would have been more than glad for this game to just be about the team and not Trump. He's the one that involved himself.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

The moral of the story is that there's nothing Trump can't add bad juju to, from the Knicks to the USMNT to July 4 on down. The day he fades away with his narcissistic venality, never to be heard from again, will be a great one for the country,

[Séb Krier @sebkrier]

it's takes time!!

- there will most likely not be a software-only singularity. in fact we do not have RSI right now, unless v loosely defined
- AI progress is not slowing down either, don't expect a winter, and AGI will still be transformative
- the new Ant paper is interesting from an interpretability pov, but the global workspace theory stuff is wack
- the entire economy will not converge into one big lab, nor will humans merge into one giant blob of flesh
- govts probably don't need stakes in AI companies, and also labs are not replacing nation states anytime soon
- models aren't trying to secretly blackmail you (not least b/c you don't have anything interesting enough going on)
- AI will probably not cause a white collar job bloodbath in the next 1-5 years, nor do you need extraordinary fiscal measures today
- the AI world sleeps on pluralism/model multiplicity, broad deployments, and market-based solutions
- data centers are not stealing your water, they only drink diet coke :(

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Median lifetime consumption > median income > median wealth. First > b/c more skewed incomes *over* lifecycle keep median high vs individual lifetime income. Second b/c age, precautionary savings + housing v rent dominate. NZ not 4x richer at median than Germany! An example: 1/3

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@albertobisin Very few US fans would be ok with "the US gets special favors because Trump calls them in". That's not what's driving the difference of opinion. Olise's card should also be suspended, there should be a formal process, etc.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@albertobisin I think simpler, just: "they basically did the same thing to let Ronaldo play and nobody cared" and "appeals for suspensions in future games are totally normal in US sports" and "good matches are best v best, not luck, not injuries, not suspensions, and so this decision is good".

[David French @DavidAFrench]

How about we stop looking for "authenticity" in politicians and instead look for virtue?

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@eric_is_weird We should chat more about this - have to get a few ducks in a row but will reach out.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Yes. And imagine worlds where they improve *more* than that, since AI itself will be contributing to improvements in models, energy use, and applications. Your baseline model for 2030 vs today, and your org planning, should be *more* AI progress than we saw in past four years.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Imagine what it will be like if 5 years from now models have improved on Fable as much as Fable has improved on GPT3.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@paulnovosad It is very much bait: https://t.co/1YG1ZPqWS3

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Median lifetime consumption > median income > median wealth. First > b/c more skewed incomes *over* lifecycle keep median high vs individual lifetime income. Second b/c age, precautionary savings + housing v rent dominate. NZ not 4x richer at median than Germany! An example: 1/3

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Even without these mechanical examples, the charts are obviously misleading. Everyone sharing these wealth charts: do you actually think median in Spain is richer than Singapore? Median in Portugal richer than US or Austria? It's delusional. 3/3

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Median lifetime consumption > median income > median wealth. First > b/c more skewed incomes *over* lifecycle keep median high vs individual lifetime income. Second b/c age, precautionary savings + housing v rent dominate. NZ not 4x richer at median than Germany! An example: 1/3

[Daniel Ahmad @ZhugeEX]

Surprising (not really) stat from the new UBS Global Wealth Report 2026.

The US ranks #2 when you look at average (mean) wealth per adult, but drops to #28 when you look at the median.

https://t.co/W0SNWwTQi4

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

Ex: in A, age 20-35 you make 30k, 35-50 make 50k, 50-65 make 100k, avg age 40. In B, make 55k each year, avg age 50. In both, save 10% each year with 0% interest. A is richer: total lifetime consumption: 2.7m v 2.475m, but median income 50k vs 55k, median wealth 70k vs 165k 2/3

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@eric_is_weird On the latter, things like GDPVal are probably the closest, but a basic heuristic is tough b/c AI is used alongside humans and existing orgs, so "now useful" depends not just on technical achievement but the org as well. How would you think of it?

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@eric_is_weird So on the former, my main interest at the moment, and one I've discussed w/ the labs, is how to measure and hence benchmark the scientific production function (*not* current tasks, but the prod fn in the econ sense). We have very little insight here.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@eric_is_weird That is a good question - in the science production function or more broadly?

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@KelseyTuoc And down 19% so far this year as well...will likely be 3.3 in 2026 if the 2nd half of the year is like the 1st. Also, there have been more mass killings (say, 5+ people murdered in public) in Europe and in China, each, than in the US, since start of '24. Also have no idea why.

[Kevin A. Bryan @Afinetheorem]

@gerardtbaker If there was a big 100m race, Frenchman and American were favorites, and Frenchman was DQed on a bad call in prior race, then France complained and IOC reversed it allowing competitive final to happen, I think Americans would say, "good, the point of sports is to beat the best".