Ogonaga

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@ziliava Ese man cogio un personaje ingenioso, sagaz, moralmente ambiguo y bastante arrogante (que precisamente por ello fue castigado por los dioses con la Odisea), y lo transformó en un buenote con trauma. Predecible y aburrido.

[MisterChip (Alexis) @2010MisterChip]

Si España gana su segunda Copa del Mundo el próximo domingo sortearé MIL QUINIENTOS DÓLARES (1500$) entre todos los seguidores que hagan RT.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@millanrussy Pedazo de retardado

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@Lidio_Dominante @octaviapolis Pa que le sigue dando bola a ese mongolico? Déjelo que hable solo.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@2010MisterChip @grok quién es el de la fotografía?

[Daniel Jeffries @Dan_Jeffries1]

This is the best and most balanced report I've read by Anthropic, free of many of the super sci-fi, everything-is-exponential language of some other reports I've read by this amazing team.

But one line is dead wrong. This one about recursive self-improvement:

"[If] AI systems themselves become capable of full recursive self-improvement, and begin building their successors...In this world, the pace of progress in AI development becomes determined entirely by the availability of compute (or the speed of discovering various efficiencies in algorithmic training or inference) for AI systems."

Compute is absolutely NOT the only limiting factor in recursive self-improvement and not even the most important one. They are two more:

1) Time
2) Multiplicity

Time is how long it takes to get an answer.

Multiplicity is when there is no right or wrong answers but only shades of gray with right(ish) answers and wrong(ish).

They even point to one of them (time) just a few paragraphs later:

"More intelligence can’t learn what a drug does over decades of use, can’t hold elections sooner than a constitution dictates, and can’t turn a stranger into an old friend in a weekend. For most people, the felt pace of this future will still be set by the bottlenecks, even if the laboratory upstream runs at the speed of compute. That collision, where recursive intelligence building itself ever faster meets the world of humans, relationships, and governance, is another part of this future we can’t predict."

But let me make it even more clear:

AI got good at code and games because they have great feedback loops and tight timelines. If the code works or does not, you know pretty quickly.

It good at driving for the same reasons. Don't die or drive off the road or hit someone are achievable (though difficult) goals with clear, fast feedback.

You cannot answer the question "is this a good article?" or "do I write well?" because that is multiplicity, shades of gray that are hard to judge.

Humans judge this by self-awareness and feedback from others. AI might be able to approximate the second but only if it develops more of the first (harder).

"Will my wife like this surprise present?" Hard to get good at that even if you're a master. Took me many years of trying and judging her responses. :)

Time is also a massive factor. The question of "did I make money in business?" can't be answered in a short time line. There is no way to know the answer faster, and short term success doesn't predict long term.

"Will this drug cause bad side effects twenty years from now?" That can only be answered in twenty years. No amount of compute changes that.

"Will this building fall down faster than this one if I build it a different way?" You can run basic physics and math rules to help you heuristically figure it out, but only time gives you the true answer.

These two constraints, time and multiplicity, are the death knell of any Doomer/Less Wrong fantasies about fast takeoff and instant super genius AI. You can have all the compute in the universe and you still can't compress twenty years of drug side effects into twenty minutes.

You can have a 500 trillion parameters and you still can't definitively answer "is this beautiful?" because beauty is not a optimization target with a clean gradient.

The recursive self-improvement loop doesn't hit a wall because of compute.

It hits a wall because of reality.

Reality is slow, messy, ambiguous, and full of questions that only time and lived experience can answer.

Compute is the bottleneck that engineers see because it's the one they can measure.

Time and multiplicity are the bottlenecks that the real world imposes and no amount of silicon can brute force past them.

That's why even nature only "solved" good/bad by brute force: evolution. Does this agent/human/creature survive and reproduce? That's good. Otherwise not good.

Companies follow the same rule. Did this survive and make money over time? Good. Otherwise bad.

Imperfect, lossy, dumb, blind, slow.

AI is changing the world already.

It will get better and better.

But the road to better is long and winding, not a vertical line to godhood.

And that should make you more hopeful, not less.

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

The Catholic University can form pioneers of a new humanism in the context of the digital revolution. This is a service to the truth and to all humanity. Without this demanding educational effort, passive adaptation to dominant paradigms will be mistaken for competence, and the loss of freedom for progress. #ApostolicJourney #Cameroon

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

Absurd and inhuman violence is spreading ferociously through the sacred places of the Christian East, profaned by the blasphemy of war and the brutality of business, with no regard for people’s lives, which are considered at most collateral damage of self-interest. But no gain can be worth the life of the weakest, children, or families. No cause can justify the shedding of innocent blood.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@Epifania2030 Yo creo que Abelardo sería más malo que petro. Un tipo que le ha lavado plata a bandidos de lado y lado no puede estar peleando la presidencia

[Leopoldo Fergusson @LeopoldoTweets]

Comparto algunas ideas sobre las implicaciones del fuerte salto en el salario mínimo decretado por el gobierno. Además de las importantes consecuencias económicas, temo los efectos de ampliar la brecha norma-realidad. #Economia #SalarioMínimo

https://t.co/zVWIIZsR4Y

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@ismene2 Ve, la producción no se puede decretar.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@BajaAlcurnia O mas bien que el impuesto no sirve.
Esa conclusion tuya simplifica la toma de decisiones. Cualquier ser humano que un patrimonio así va a querer pagar menos impuestos. Sucede en todos los países. Lo que hay que hacer es diseñar mejores impuestos

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@matecastano Es hora de poner tu granito de arena. A tener hijos.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@PalmaEdwin Lo que tienen es la expectativa de que este Gobienro ya se va a acabar.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@mizuravage @grok que canción está sonando en este video

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@divulgajuridica Mantenerse curioso y tener presente un sentido de justicia frente a cada situación.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@marcoalvarezg Cuál de todos recomienda para iniciar?

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@nosupermario A quien señalas de inepto si no sabes ni poner una coma.

[DepressedBergman @DannyDrinksWine]

Sunday.

[Ogonaga @AFOV16]

@IriartePhoto @AndresMejiaV Pero hay que aprender a leer. Una cosa es que se haya radicalizado frente a las fuerzas políticas tradicionales del país, y otra muy distinta es su discurso respecto a Gaza.

El hecho de que diga verdades frente a Gaza no implica que haya sido un gobernante efectivo.